This is a stock fund, not a gold fund.
"Good thing NUGT isn't a gold stock" Huh??? Its a 3 times leveraged gold tock ETF, so if GDX falls 20%, NUGT could fall 60%---gold stock on steroids!
1. trouble in many important producers (Venezuela, Nigeria, etc.)
2. shale oil production falling rapidly
3. Demand stable
4. Iran production not returning as fast as expected
5. Technicals shift bullish, yet bearishness still high (a contrary indicator). Bullish consensus still low.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
If 93% are bullish, they have already bought. Only 7% is a thin margin for any rally to continue. Bullishness has never been this high in bonds, coinciding with almost record low rates.
When bullish consensus gets this excessive (as measured by bond futures), it may indicate at least a correction or at least a stall is near. May sell some of my TLT if this bullish complacency continues.
Stll haven't sold the other half of my position, but I will on a close below $130.
And if the dollar corrects, commodities could really take off.
Floods, droughts, maybe both, who knows. Get you JJG & DBA while it's cheap, like now. Could be very profitable later.
If Ag turns around, AGCO should do OK but probbaly bigger % gains in DBA, JJG, POT, MOS, CORN. All are really beaten down.
That would be nice. Also have some calls in XON, another lottery ticket with a real good story.
Debt to equity ratio of 100 is way too high imho. Pay the debt down would be my advise.
In the long run, would make the co. stronger. Debt is too big.
Also concerned by very negative article on bonds by Randall Fortsyth in latest Barron's (Feb. 8) "Up and Down Wall Street" column.
Also a concern--even in the worst of the 2008/09 crash, TLT never was this high. Due for a pause perhaps?
If it trades below $130, will sell the rest.