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Inergy, L.P. Message Board

marklibera 189 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 8, 2016 4:32 PM Member since: Aug 14, 2007
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  • Reply to

    Silver?

    by jkprice Jul 8, 2016 2:22 PM
    marklibera marklibera Jul 8, 2016 4:32 PM Flag

    Yep, I expected gold and silver and anything interest sensitive to get creamed after the jobs number and they all were up, including bonds. Something's wrong with that. Even SCG, my mom utility, was up today after becoming overbought the other day. And biotechs are rallying. This is starting to look like a blowoff top.

  • Reply to

    PSEC

    by bayman667 Jul 8, 2016 11:39 AM
    marklibera marklibera Jul 8, 2016 1:03 PM Flag

    Bayman, PSEC is the proverbial picking up nickels in front of the steam roller. You just never know when that steam roller is going to accelerate and run you over. For 1 or 2% less yield, you could probably own a much better managed BDC which has no exposure to CLOs or energy.

    We have seen many high yield stocks perform very well over the last few years, but then we have also seen the bottom drop out of more than a few and their dividends eliminated or cut. There has to be a better way of distinguishing between the two.

  • Reply to

    Just had to buy ARP

    by jrfillion Apr 12, 2016 12:21 PM
    marklibera marklibera Jul 8, 2016 10:24 AM Flag

    It is difficult to decipher the financials of ATLS because they file consolidated financials with the entire group including ARP but I dont' think they are good. They have their own debt, first and second lien, in the total amount of $70mm. The second lien pik pays at 30% interest -- yikes. As for the AGP IPO, since it has negative EBITDA, it is no wonder that it can't get completed. From the last earnings report, it looks like they collected $1.1 from ARCX and AGP against G&A of 0.6 and interest expense of $1.6. So it looks to be negative cashflowing and if they don't pay the interest in cash, the pik rate will outrun any cashflow.

  • Reply to

    SFL was at 10 not that long ago.

    by jkprice Jul 7, 2016 2:24 PM
    marklibera marklibera Jul 7, 2016 4:45 PM Flag

    Actually, SFL seems to have these periodic selloffs at least once each year. It did touch the $11s in each of the last 4 years. I know $11 is not the same as $10, but close enough. And $16 definitely looks like that has been the top.

  • Utes selling off a bit. I wouldn't be surprised to see a 5% correction in them just like they did back in May as well as a correction in the 10 yr Treasury, especially if there is a good jobs number tomorrow.

  • Reply to

    Today the dividend capture

    by bacon2bacon Jul 5, 2016 2:51 PM
    marklibera marklibera Jul 6, 2016 3:05 PM Flag

    Lots of refi's coming. Goldman publish a list of the % of mortgages and their coupons. Over 20% are over 5%, while rates now in the 3's.

  • Reply to

    Western Asset Mortgage: Simply Disgusting

    by dragon.slipper Jun 24, 2016 5:40 PM
    marklibera marklibera Jul 6, 2016 1:36 PM Flag

    I disagree on your statement about hedging. No mREIT will go unhedged even if rates were to go negative. Falling rates do crush spreads though and spreads are what determines income on which the divy is paid. WMC tried to shift from agencies to nonagencies and CMBS to pick up more spread, but they have done a lousy job. However if this trades at too large a discount to book, someone will come calling and buy it and slash the management expenses.

  • Reply to

    CVRR

    by jkprice Jul 6, 2016 10:48 AM
    marklibera marklibera Jul 6, 2016 12:01 PM Flag

    Drop today is related to an update on Coffeyville plant taking longer to get up to full speed. There are also a few articles out there suggesting that they'll have no money for a distribution this quarter, so people may be fleeing before they announce that. Piper has a $3 target on it, so that may have influenced the selling. RSI of 19, but that could go lower. Might make for a spec play after they announce no divy.

  • Reply to

    ED closed today at $81.67

    by bobdbeck Jul 5, 2016 4:05 PM
    marklibera marklibera Jul 5, 2016 5:05 PM Flag

    Bob, the explanation may be as simple as the name of UTF with that "infrastructure" component. The computer algos may be programmed to buy "utility" and maybe that's what throws them off. Or, the algos may be programmed to buy the XLU, the utility index, which then causes the individual stocks to be bought to stay in line.
    There was an article over the weekend in either the WSJ or Barron's about utilities being at all time highs and high valuations. XLU and my mom's SCG are both trading with RSI's over 80. That usually doesn't stay that way for long. With 3 property companies in UK freezing payouts and the stress in the Italian banking sector, it's easy to understand the rally in US Treasuries, which are also now overbought, but it would just take one better than expected economic number to undo some of that safety trade and that could be this week's payroll number.
    One other note on RSI levels, it looks like back in Feb, ED stayed overbought with RSI over 70 for 8-10 trading days.

  • Reply to

    O/T NRZ

    by wingnut90266 Jul 5, 2016 2:03 PM
    marklibera marklibera Jul 5, 2016 3:33 PM Flag

    Also, many mREITS also down along with MORL. An increase in mortgage refinances will not be good for the spreads of mREITs.

  • Reply to

    O/T NRZ

    by wingnut90266 Jul 5, 2016 2:03 PM
    marklibera marklibera Jul 5, 2016 3:31 PM Flag

    With mortgage rates dropping, you might see refi's start to pick up and that can hurt mortgage servicers. The 30 yr mortgage is close to 3% and many longer term ARMS are under 3%. Goldman was out with an article on the potential for refi's.

  • Reply to

    Clarification on MORL and other ETNs

    by marklibera Jul 5, 2016 9:26 AM
    marklibera marklibera Jul 5, 2016 3:28 PM Flag

    Stagg, now you are just being a baby. Unlike some investors, I understand the structure and the risk of ETN's. I also understand the risks of high yield securities and have seen many that some posters said very good things about that are no longer paying dividends and have sunk to all time lows. Do I need to remind you which ones they are and who recommended them?
    Continued good luck.

  • Reply to

    Clarification on MORL and other ETNs

    by marklibera Jul 5, 2016 9:26 AM
    marklibera marklibera Jul 5, 2016 2:00 PM Flag

    stagg, I am sorry you are so defensive about my clarification, but it may matter to some. Your post says what it says. Note that I did not say that "your post was wrong" or similarly try to disaparage it. I just tried to lay out some clarifications. Your above response is similarly not accurate. The ETN is a note. A note is just an obligation by the issuer to pay the holder according to the terms, so the issuer of the note is not receiving dividends from the underlying mREIT stocks. As you mentioned, some of these instruments are complicated and the space for a post does not allow an easy explanation. It seems that you have difficulty understanding some of my posts. But the facts remain, that your explanation was inaccurate and not complete.

    As for NYMT, I may know just a little bit more about the commercial mortgage industry than you do since I actually worked for a publicly traded commercial mortgage REIT, but that being said, that does not mean I am a better market timer than you or anyone else. Any stock can go up based on momentum or on an outside event. Even Bear Stearns and Lehman went up before their problems were discovered. I have no idea how NYMT may fair in the future, but I do know what risks they have, which is more than you can say.

  • Reply to

    Clarification on MORL and other ETNs

    by marklibera Jul 5, 2016 9:26 AM
    marklibera marklibera Jul 5, 2016 11:34 AM Flag

    Stagg, I posted this clarification because this is what you said in your post:
    .
    The statements "basket of many REITS" and "the same ways that they receive them" could imply that the ETN "owns" these stocks that make up the index that it tracks and receives dividends on these stocks. Not all of our readers are up to date on the finer points of all of these different instruments, so I wanted to clarify that ETNs don't own the underlying stocks in the index, as well as provide a potential reason for why brokerages are requiring these waivers.
    I would not have bothered to offer the clarification if I thought the point was crystal clear.

  • Just to clarify some of the discussion on MORL and some of the other 2x ETNs. These are ETNs, not ETFs. In other words, MORL does not own the stocks that make up the index that it is based on. Rather, MORL is an unsecured debt instrument that tracks the price performance of that index and pays a distribution based on the dividends paid on the underlying stocks in the index. The distributions paid out on MORL are treated as interest payments and are subject to ordinary income tax rates.
    As for the reason many of the brokerages may be requiring waivers before they allow you to trade, remember that most mREITS are highly leveraged companies using somewhere between 6 and 8 times leverage (e.g. their debt exceeds their equity by 6-8 times and most of their debt is short-term (

  • Reply to

    SXCP

    by bobdbeck Jul 1, 2016 3:52 PM
    marklibera marklibera Jul 1, 2016 4:09 PM Flag

    I've had that happen a couple of times. Fighting over pennies with limit orders, leaving dollars on the table (when selling and buying).

  • marklibera by marklibera Jul 1, 2016 2:22 PM Flag

    NUGT is now $140, up 10% today. So much for a barbaric relic (this ETF actually is based on gold miners, not the price of gold). It's up 100% since a Jun 1 selloff and a 7 bagger (up from 20) since January. Put that in your Total Return calculator. That even beats the total return on FRO. LOL!

    Looking on a longer term chart, this was, get this, over 8000 in 2012. Must have had some reverse splits or something. I doubt it gets back to that level, but it could see 500. It's not really overbought yet with the RSI at 68 and it is trading in a nice channel with a width of about 20 bucks.

    Similarly, USLV traded as high as 600 back then and the next area for resistance is near $50.

  • marklibera by marklibera Jul 1, 2016 10:06 AM Flag

    Silver is now catching up to gold and over the last couple of days has taken out some resistance from early 2015. It's way overbought now, but the expectation seems to be that the central banks are going to have to pump in more money to keep equities elevated and keep the myth of the wealth effect going. Rumors of bank bailouts in Italy. The triple ETF on silver is USLV and it is very overbought having rallied from 10 to 24 this year. USLV traded as high #$%$ last year. As with NUGT, once these triple ETFs get going, they can really sky, but timing is important.
    I wonder how the central banks are going to both keep precious metal prices down and keep equities up at the same time. Seems they cant do both.
    I think Ed first mentioned silver in the beginning of the year. He doesn't like to brag much.

  • Reply to

    O/T AAPL

    by wingnut90266 Jun 30, 2016 6:35 PM
    marklibera marklibera Jul 1, 2016 9:57 AM Flag

    I know. We've mostly stopped talking about AAPL as Sarge finally sold his long position and most everyone now agrees that their tree has stopped growing to the sky for now.

  • marklibera by marklibera Jul 1, 2016 9:52 AM Flag

    Just to contest the narrative of one poster that "there's no better place than US equities," here are the first half returns on various indices and sectors:

    Brent oil +36%
    gold +24%
    Yen vs. dollar +17.2%
    German bunds +10.6
    US Treasuries +6.4%
    Global High yield bonds +8.3%
    EM equities +3.5%
    S&P +2.4%
    Eurozone stocks -10.3%
    shanghai stocks -19.1%

    This isn't the full list of all the various sectors but it does give a flavor. Now will the money chase momentum and follow the current leaders or will it move to those sectors that have been pounded down to the bottom of the list and possibly represent better valuation. In either case, since US stocks, represented by the S&P, are in the middle of the pack, it is difficult to make the argument that money is going to chose the middle of the pack. BTW, I didn't see silver listed as a separate item, but it is catching up to gold.