Bob, first congrats to William if he bought this lower as it is up from under $5 and was over 12 at one point. While it is was overbought in May, it is no longer overbought and seems to have run into resistance at that $12 level. They did affirm their guidance and their coverage level is good, but they are also getting support from the parent on an IDR waiver. They have bought back bonds, so unitholders can expect to get some CODI income on their K-1 (if you owned at the time they bought back the bonds).
The obvious problem with anything coal is that it moves with whatever is happening with China, so it could move up if China makes a positive announcement and it could move down if some negative stat gets released. After such a big run, SXCP could trade in a range between $10 and 12. It might run up into the distribution announcement since it is expected to be maintained. I might take a look at those bonds since they might be trading at a discount and the company seems to be buying them back.
It always pays to be on the lookout for a stock or sector that has gotten killed, but will survive, especially when technically oversold. The trick of course is to make sure you aren't buying a pig in a poke.
Bob, the explanation may be as simple as the name of UTF with that "infrastructure" component. The computer algos may be programmed to buy "utility" and maybe that's what throws them off. Or, the algos may be programmed to buy the XLU, the utility index, which then causes the individual stocks to be bought to stay in line.
There was an article over the weekend in either the WSJ or Barron's about utilities being at all time highs and high valuations. XLU and my mom's SCG are both trading with RSI's over 80. That usually doesn't stay that way for long. With 3 property companies in UK freezing payouts and the stress in the Italian banking sector, it's easy to understand the rally in US Treasuries, which are also now overbought, but it would just take one better than expected economic number to undo some of that safety trade and that could be this week's payroll number.
One other note on RSI levels, it looks like back in Feb, ED stayed overbought with RSI over 70 for 8-10 trading days.
stagg, a couple of comments that bear repeating. First, interest rate hikes are probably dead for now. The odds are actually swinging to interest rate cuts instead of hikes. Second, high yield investing works in the right cycle and with the right stocks. It doesn't work with all high yield stocks and during all cycles. For example, many energy MLPs were high yield and that didn't stop them from collapsing and cutting their divies. Same for some BDCs and some mREITs. We have been in a yield chasing environment in which high yield stocks that can maintain their divies continue to get buys. But if a stock can't continue its high yield, well you know what has happened to some of those. The key is being able to know whether a stock is at risk for cutting its divy.
Today I sold a closed end muni fund, VCV with a 40% gain, not counting that I have been receiving 6% tax free each year for about 3 years (I sold it because I wanted to take this gain and because it was overbought). While there was interest rate risk associated with this holding because they lever up their muni bond holdings by borrowing at the repo rate in order to earn more income, that risk was easier to understand by just watching the yields on Treasuries. I didn't have to study each municipality to know what their tax collections and expenditures were. I didn't have to learn about shipping rates and contract extensions or the supply and demand of energy markets or how collateralized loan obligations work or how prepayment speeds and spreads effect mREIT divies.
There are some lower yielding div stocks that have been huge performers over both a short and long period. Bayman made a mint on PM and only sold it because of potential bad consequences of Brexit. Bob has about a 10 bagger on ED. My mom has a 13 bagger on SCG and her yield on cost basis is 46% with a current yield of 3%. Too bad she had to live on her divies as the reinvestment would have made this a 20 or 25 bagger.
Stagg, those start dates still put them in the current bull market (I would put the start date of the current bull at March 2009). Bear markets are typically characterized as a 20% decline, so I don't think 2015 qualifies as a bear market. The test will come when we actually have a bear market, which may not be identifiable until it comes and runs it course.
Stagg, now you are just being a baby. Unlike some investors, I understand the structure and the risk of ETN's. I also understand the risks of high yield securities and have seen many that some posters said very good things about that are no longer paying dividends and have sunk to all time lows. Do I need to remind you which ones they are and who recommended them?
Continued good luck.
It is difficult to decipher the financials of ATLS because they file consolidated financials with the entire group including ARP but I dont' think they are good. They have their own debt, first and second lien, in the total amount of $70mm. The second lien pik pays at 30% interest -- yikes. As for the AGP IPO, since it has negative EBITDA, it is no wonder that it can't get completed. From the last earnings report, it looks like they collected $1.1 from ARCX and AGP against G&A of 0.6 and interest expense of $1.6. So it looks to be negative cashflowing and if they don't pay the interest in cash, the pik rate will outrun any cashflow.
Just to clarify some of the discussion on MORL and some of the other 2x ETNs. These are ETNs, not ETFs. In other words, MORL does not own the stocks that make up the index that it is based on. Rather, MORL is an unsecured debt instrument that tracks the price performance of that index and pays a distribution based on the dividends paid on the underlying stocks in the index. The distributions paid out on MORL are treated as interest payments and are subject to ordinary income tax rates.
As for the reason many of the brokerages may be requiring waivers before they allow you to trade, remember that most mREITS are highly leveraged companies using somewhere between 6 and 8 times leverage (e.g. their debt exceeds their equity by 6-8 times and most of their debt is short-term (
To continue, I won't bother to point out "low yield" growth stocks like AAPL and MSFT, to name just two, for which early investors made a ton.
As to moods, you have been enjoying a nice run lately, but back in January you were singing a different tune and some of your prior holdings did not turn out well. You may be able to forget them, but those of us who follow your posts know that they did not work out so well even though they were high yields. So again, the point comes down to stock selection and cycles. We don't know how these high yield holdings did during the last downturn in stocks back in 2008, but we know that the market always has bull and bear cycles.
Finally, there is really no one on this board who is strictly a day trader, so there is really no distinction between your characterization of trader and investor. We are all opportunists.
Yep, I expected gold and silver and anything interest sensitive to get creamed after the jobs number and they all were up, including bonds. Something's wrong with that. Even SCG, my mom utility, was up today after becoming overbought the other day. And biotechs are rallying. This is starting to look like a blowoff top.
But don't they still have to sell it to someone? I read that they have fixed contracts, but we know that the strength of those depend on who is on the other side.
DH seems to assume that the big money is investing in individual stocks, but do we have any proof that that is the case. Sure, mutual funds invest in stocks, but more and more pension funds are investing in hedge funds. Are those hedge funds actually buying individual stocks or are they using trading strategies using ETFs, futures (which are leveraged 20 to 1) and other momentum and quant strategies that do not actually involve investing in individual stocks. Why buy 500 names when you can buy a futures contract that is based on the 500 names in the S&P?
I've been casually watching some of the triple and triple inverse ETFs. The latest big move is the triple "Up" ETF for nat gas, UGAZ. This has practically doubled from 23 to 43, in THIS month. Seems odd that nat gas prices have been going up, but much of the production had been shut in with the low prices and seasonally nat gas seems to move up in the summer months, even though the winter months are when the big draws on supply occur. Not sure these increases can continue, in which case, the DGAZ might be a better play since it has gone from 30 to 7 since March and is now under RSI 30.
It will also be interesting to see how some of the e&p MLPs fair after their restructurings if the nat gas futures start to move back toward $3.50. There are some unsecured bonds selling for 10 cents on the dollar.
Read a post on s.a. about WNR which has been taking a big hit lately. Article said they could be going lower as overseas supply of gas hurts their margins. Wonder if SUN is going to feel the same effects. On the opposite side, a different article a few weeks back on the ethane dynamics was positive for SXL as they will be moving a lot of ethane.
For those that don't know, TVIX is linked to the term structure of the VIX. As I understand it (and I can be wrong), the VIX futures has different expiration months and the futures VIX price can be higher each month you go out. This can be a problem because TVIX has to continually buy the latest month, so that if that month is more expensive than the month that is rolling off, it means that they are continually buying high and selling low, and then having more of that premium roll off each month. Thus there is a built in price erosion similar to decay on options.
NUGT on the other hand trades based on the NYSE ARCA gold miners index, not the price of gold. The gold miners index could run ahead of the price of gold as they go from being undervalued to overvalued.
Most of the info about any securities product is out there and there are many people on these message boards, the Market Pulse section and seeking alpha who describe the pros and cons of each product. One doesn't have to guess.
This distinction between "investors" and "traders" or whatever other category is phony. Most of us have limited funds to some extent and want to buy at the best risk/reward point to maximize gains, whether we count those in terms of income or capital gains. Despite a 100 year Dow chart, most of us don't have a 100 year investment horizon. DH's theories about "momentum" are only supported by his posts. At least if he showed some stats, it would be worth considering. He has no counter for the historical fact that valuations are stretched, that the bull is long in time as well as other economic stats about debt, corp earnings declines etc.
As for his statement that he "doesn't see the need to find better opportunities" on when to invest, that is just bunk and contrary to his posts. As DH has posted numerous times, he trades often, selling stocks that become overbought and buying when they are oversold. He often reminds us that he has a bunch of money that he would invest if the market dropped. So if he didn't see the need to trade at better risk/reward, guided by technicals, then why does he do it?
Finally, DH offers no empirical proof that US equities are the best value. In fact, with the recent plunge in various emerging and other markets, on a pure valuation basis, those options are becoming better opportunities, and that can be supported by empirical facts.
Many think I have some axe to grind with DH. I do not. He brings a lot to the board in terms of his investing experience and his use of technical analysis. But when he starts to stray into these unsupported theories of valuation and market history, I fear he might be leading some investors to think that they should through caution to the wind and just invest all of their money right now at these levels because, from his posts, that appears to be what he is doing, when in fact, he is not.
I've been casually looking at the triple and inverse triple ETFs on nat gas, UGAZ and DGAZ. UGAZ has nearly doubled THIS MONTH from 23 to 43, while DGAZ has collapsed from 30 to 7. I have not played them but did some research on nat gas price movements and saw that prices tend to increase going into summer and then pull back in fall. I guess the demand comes from the need to fill the storage prior to the draw season in winter.
I know. We've mostly stopped talking about AAPL as Sarge finally sold his long position and most everyone now agrees that their tree has stopped growing to the sky for now.
With mortgage rates dropping, you might see refi's start to pick up and that can hurt mortgage servicers. The 30 yr mortgage is close to 3% and many longer term ARMS are under 3%. Goldman was out with an article on the potential for refi's.
Drop today is related to an update on Coffeyville plant taking longer to get up to full speed. There are also a few articles out there suggesting that they'll have no money for a distribution this quarter, so people may be fleeing before they announce that. Piper has a $3 target on it, so that may have influenced the selling. RSI of 19, but that could go lower. Might make for a spec play after they announce no divy.