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Assured Guaranty Ltd. Message Board

matthew_and_january 210 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 5, 2012 3:03 PM Member since: May 15, 2010
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  • In less than 1 trading session. As only Apple can...

  • matthew_and_january by matthew_and_january Nov 27, 2012 4:12 PM Flag

    So does that mean on an apples to apples basis, they actually only generated $860 million in sales and badly missed on revenues other than for a freak once every six years calendar glitch?

  • Reply to

    make me panic

    by paporus Nov 16, 2012 11:14 AM
    matthew_and_january matthew_and_january Nov 16, 2012 11:19 AM Flag

    Who got the shares at 80 cents? Wish I had seen that.

  • Reply to

    It all comes out

    by peter_norths_proctologist Nov 9, 2012 3:45 PM
    matthew_and_january matthew_and_january Nov 9, 2012 4:40 PM Flag

    Why will there be tax loss selling? The stock is up +70% YTD even after the close today at 90 cents.

    Now, if you believe Obama is going to jack up tax rates (likely), including raising capital gains tax rates, you might argue for tax gains selling this year, not just on Joez, but on the whole market.

  • Reply to

    Confused

    by pinkal1000 Jun 1, 2012 2:37 PM
    matthew_and_january matthew_and_january Jun 1, 2012 3:20 PM Flag

    If they were planning to go BK, whhy would they was $500m per year paying down debt? Silly.

    Let me just say this, something weird is going on, I completely agree with you. Yeah I get it, they have a very levered balance sheet, and sales are flat to shrinking marginally over time. OK, not wonderful, and the markets are tanking so levered companies are getting taken out and shot.

    But really, just because Europe is imploding, and the markets are selling off, how exactly does this impact SVU's business model? Are people really going to stop buying groceries because they are worried about the economy? Not really. Groceries are a necessity, and demand tends to be inelastic. One could argue that if the economy got really bad, people would start trading down and stop shopping at Whole Foods which is crazy expensive, and shop at Save-a-Lot, etc. instead. Is there risk that if there is a credit crunch, that SVU won't be able to roll their debt? No more risk than for any other company, and less so given that significant free cash flow that SVU generates each year (which they have consistently used to pay down debt). I don't see their dividend at risk again because of their huge free cash flow.

    Not sure what to say at this point, the stock just plummets into oblivion, following a pretty strong quarter for the company. If you can wait it out, I'd just stick it in a drawer and forget about it I guess, and some day wake up to a double or triple.

    usually levered companies are rewarded when they use cash flow to pay down debt, as the more debt they pay down (and eliminate interest expense), the faster earnings and cash flow increase in the future, even if revenues don't grow.

  • Reply to

    wow. droping like crazy like some new on the wire.

    by techxpit May 18, 2012 2:38 PM
    matthew_and_january matthew_and_january May 18, 2012 2:44 PM Flag

    No SVU-specific. Every single company with a levered balance sheet is selling off. Market is starting to price in a Europe collapse and a new financial crisis, which would make it near impossible for any company with a lot of leverage to roll their debt. Seems a bit overdone to me, but that's what is happening, fundamentals be damned. Normally, with an improving EPS and paying down debt, levered companies outperform because they are levered to the upside. But not in this market. However, even in a recession, not sure there is a big drop off in people buying groceries. You'd think high end grocers like whole foods would be more at risk.

  • Reply to

    38 cents on earnings

    by gardnergreg73 May 10, 2012 6:57 PM
    matthew_and_january matthew_and_january May 11, 2012 10:59 AM Flag

    I wish. And I didn't even buy the 13 strike calls, as I was in a meeting. Somebody got them for 15 cents and made a quick triple. Hopefully somebody read my prediction.

    I think we could get to $14-$15 in the next week if markets don't tank. However, the stock isn't as shorted as it used to be, so not likely to squeeze. The Moody's overhang remains. If they come out and change their rating outlook to stable it should rip back to $18-20.

  • Reply to

    38 cents on earnings

    by gardnergreg73 May 10, 2012 6:57 PM
    matthew_and_january matthew_and_january May 10, 2012 9:25 PM Flag

    Don't forget the $160m+ cash payment from DB to boost the balance sheet which will show up 2Q, and additional future loss share agreement as well.

    I have this feeling the stock will sell off in the first half hour with the rest of the financials (thanks JPM), and then will rip higher for the rest of the day. Might be tempted to try to pick up the May 13 strike calls for a nickel early if that happens.

  • matthew_and_january by matthew_and_january May 10, 2012 5:20 PM Flag

    So looks like a slight beat on 1Q EPS and revs, and a nice cash inflow from DB settling RMBS claims plus DB ponying up collateral for loss reinsurance. Overall seems like pretty good news. Thoughts out there?

    From the 10-Q

    On May 8, 2012, Assured Guaranty reached a settlement with Deutsche Bank AG and certain of its affiliates (collectively, "Deutsche Bank"), resolving claims related to certain RMBS transactions issued, underwritten or sponsored by Deutsche Bank that were insured by Assured Guaranty under financial guaranty insurance policies and to certain RMBS exposures in re-securitization transactions as to which Assured Guaranty provides credit protection through CDS.

    Assured Guaranty received a cash payment of $165.6 million from Deutsche Bank upon signing of the agreement (the "Deutsche Bank Agreement"), a portion of which will partially reimburse Assured Guaranty for past losses on certain transactions. Assured Guaranty and Deutsche Bank have also entered into loss sharing arrangements covering future RMBS related losses, which are described below. Under the Deutsche Bank Agreement, Deutsche Bank AG will place approximately $282.7 million of eligible assets in trust in order to collateralize the obligations of a reinsurance affiliate under the loss-sharing arrangements, and the Deutsche Bank reinsurance affiliate may post additional collateral in the future to satisfy rating agency requirements.

  • Reply to

    27$ price target

    by espo1900 Apr 10, 2012 3:39 PM
    matthew_and_january matthew_and_january Apr 18, 2012 12:45 PM Flag

    And why is HTZ trading at a 20% premiuim to CAR, with less earnings per share potential and equally overlevered balance sheet?

  • matthew_and_january by matthew_and_january Apr 8, 2012 6:35 PM Flag

    Bad enough to show the recovery is weaker than expected, but not bad enough to put QE 3 back on the table. Numbers came just in the right spot to be 'perfectly awful' for the markets.

  • Reply to

    LTRO-2

    by psychplayer Feb 25, 2012 12:08 PM
    matthew_and_january matthew_and_january Feb 25, 2012 3:58 PM Flag

    LTRO 2 won't be 1 Trillion. More like $500 billion, maybe a little less. You can post as many garbage assets to the ECB as you want, but you can still only borrow 30 cents for each dollar of garbage you give. To get to $1 trillion of borrowing, you would have to give the ECB $3 trillion of collateral. The math just doesn't work to get to a trillion. I'd be shocked. If the market is expecting that kind of number, I wouldn't be long into the announcement. I am also most in cash. My last sale was S&P 1340, so I'm missed the last few percent move...

  • Reply to

    Patriots or Gaints ?

    by tradingwiththetrend Feb 2, 2012 1:24 PM
    matthew_and_january matthew_and_january Feb 2, 2012 1:29 PM Flag

    I'm a huge Giants fan, so I have to go with Giants, as I'm biased. However, I'm sure the fates will not allow the Giants to win this one, because if Eli has two super bowl rings, media and football fans will be forced to come to terms that he is actually a great QB and someday could be in the Hall of Fame.

  • matthew_and_january by matthew_and_january Jan 10, 2012 2:31 PM Flag

    90 minutes to go and less than 75 million SPY shares have traded, about 30% of average daily trading volume. Did people forget to come back from new year's holiday? Or maybe banks laid of all their traders on Jan 1? Geez.

  • matthew_and_january by matthew_and_january Jan 6, 2012 9:59 AM Flag

    Markets weaker on a very strong jobs report. Why? I think it's because good unemployment news means Fed can't do QE, it can only do QE if things start to turn south. So it looks like, for the next few months, bad news will be good for the markets (higher chance of QE), and good news is bad (as it delays QE). What a fun market we live in.

  • matthew_and_january by matthew_and_january Jan 3, 2012 2:43 PM Flag

    Everyone says the rally today is in large part due to inflows to start the year where managers need to put money to work, which is pushing markets higher. Yet, with a little more than an hour to the close, we are not even to 50% average daily volume. Huh? Where's the money?

  • Reply to

    S&P 1257.6 (2010) to 1257.6 (2011)

    by marcuspratt Dec 30, 2011 4:08 PM
    matthew_and_january matthew_and_january Dec 30, 2011 4:10 PM Flag

    I just posted exactly the same thing at almost the same second as you. Good stuff.

  • matthew_and_january by matthew_and_january Dec 30, 2011 4:08 PM Flag

    What a fantastic close.

    Dec 31, 2010 close on S&P 500 index: 1257.64
    Dec 30, 2011 close on S&P 500 index: 1257.61

    Just amazing. But lots of fun volatility in between to trade!

    Happy new year all...

  • Reply to

    That was a fantastic Santa rally!

    by stockdropper Dec 23, 2011 4:03 PM
    matthew_and_january matthew_and_january Dec 23, 2011 4:22 PM Flag

    We all know the hedge funds that own Greek debt will not 'voluntarily' tender their bonds into the 50% PSI. So when Greece has their next bond redemption in March 2012, just make sure you sell by then...

  • Reply to

    That was a fantastic Santa rally!

    by stockdropper Dec 23, 2011 4:03 PM
    matthew_and_january matthew_and_january Dec 23, 2011 4:05 PM Flag

    Yeah, most seasonal merchandise usually gets put on the red tag rack at 40%-50% off after the holidays. Many thanks to who-ever took my 30K of SPYs off my hands at the close. Looking forward to buying them back 10% cheaper in the next couple weeks. Happy holidays!

AGO
26.62+0.27(+1.02%)Jul 22 4:02 PMEDT