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Arch Coal Inc. Message Board

mho07 37 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 15, 2016 3:20 PM Member since: Nov 26, 2008
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  • Reply to

    Is Cliffs’s valuation justified?

    by mho07 Jul 12, 2016 8:03 AM
    mho07 mho07 Jul 15, 2016 3:20 PM Flag

    Thank you for clarifying that oracle... my point is despite such a big run up in the last few months. This part of the article from "Market Realist"
    "Investors should also consider that even after the current 234% rise in Cliffs’s share price year-to-date, its price has only reached the level it was at last June when the US steel prices were 40% lower as compared to the current level."
    Steel prices and iron ore are much higher now than they were last June. Bottom line. We're going higher, much higher!!!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    I love Lorenco, best CEO...

    by mho07 Jul 13, 2016 8:01 AM
    mho07 mho07 Jul 13, 2016 5:55 PM Flag

    i'm with you, man! if it wasn't for him, we would have been in bk a long time ago. Not only we have survived but will thrive under his leadership. the future for cliffs is bright and us shareholders will be handsomely rewarded.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • “I’m the fixer. I’m the wolf. I’m coming to clean the mess. I need your support. If you guys have my back, we’ll have DRI here very soon.”

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • From Zerobid...
    NASHWAUK — Cliffs Natural Resources CEO Lourenco Goncalves on Tuesday unveiled his plan to wrest control of the Essar Steel taconite project in bankruptcy court, finish construction and build a directly reduced iron mill at the site.
    Goncalves — backed by Gov. Mark Dayton, U.S. Rep. Rick Nolan and the entire Iron Range delegation of state lawmakers — said he'll start work on the iron plant just as soon as he gains control of the Essar project that sits half-built and idle just outside of town.
    "I'm the fixer. ... I'm coming to the rescue," Goncalves said.
    It's believed Essar has more than $1 billion in debt on the project.
    "If they (creditors) want to see anything for their money from that site, they have two choices: Help me build an iron plant on the Iron Range, or sell what's there now for scrap. Either way, I'm going to get it," the outspoken CEO said.
    Goncalves and state officials said they had no "magic wand'' to see contractors are repaid. But they said the best path forward for more Iron Range jobs is for Cliffs to gain control of the project, fish construction and start making a new product for the Iron Range to sell.
    "I understand your frustration. I get it," Goncalves told them. "We are here to show there's a path to a better future."
    Goncalves' plan, in essence, is to gain control of state mineral leases, which Dayton has offered, to gain access to the valuable taconite iron ore in the ground at the mine site. He would then negotiate with neighboring private mineral leaseholders and, if Essar creditors gain control of the assets in bankruptcy as expected, work with those creditors to take the project over.
    Goncalves said he's ready to battle Essar in court as he has before.
    "We've done it in Canada and now we'll do it here,'' he said making no effort to contain his disdain for Essar. "I will make a deal with anyone to make this work. Even the devil. But not Essar."
    Both state officials and Goncalves berated Essar's business principles

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • From Zerobid...
    Cliffs Natural Resources President, Chairman and CEO Lourenco Goncalves on Tuesday announced his Fcompany’s intention to build the first direct reduced iron (DRI) facility on the Mesabi Range.
    The announcement came on the heels of the revocation of state mineral leases from Essar Steel Minnesota, which has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.
    Essar purchased the proposed project from Minnesota Steel Industries in 2007. After nearly a decade, however, it remains unfinished and has been pared from a iron mining to steel-making venture to simply another taconite production facility.
    At a press conference, Goncalves, surrounded by the entire Iron Range delegation of state legislators as well as Gov. Mark Dayton, Lt. Gov. Tina Smith and U.S. Rep. Rick Nolan, stated his case for before members of the media and numerous contractors. He called for support for his plan to gain control of the Essar site and resume construction.
    Those with the most to lose if Essar is forced out of the game could be local contractors. Current estimates by the state suggest that India-based Essar collectively owes contractors in Minnesota $49 million for work done at the former Butler site near Nashwauk.
    “I understand your frustration. But, we’re not here to talk about the past,” Goncalves said. “We’re not going to build another taconite plant… (our proposal is) to build the first of several DRI units that will populate the Iron Range over the next 10 years.
    Although the state has announced its intent to revoke Essar’s mineral leases and possibly reassign them to Cliffs, the matter has been complicated by Essar’s Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing in Delaware. Essar officials contend that because the filing took place minutes before the leases were revoked, all matters related to Essar’s status will now be determined in federal bankruptcy court rather than by the state.
    In a news release issued by Essar on Monday, the company claimed it had found a new investor in SPL Advisors,

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Goncalves vows to fight Essar in court .......................
    Cliffs Natural Resources President, Chairman and CEO Lourenco Goncalves on Tuesday announced his company’s intention to build the first direct reduced iron (DRI) facility on the Mesabi Range.
    The announcement came on the heels of the revocation of state mineral leases from Essar Steel Minnesota, which has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.
    Essar purchased the proposed project from Minnesota Steel Industries in 2007. After nearly a decade, however, it remains unfinished and has been pared from a iron mining to steel-making venture to simply another taconite production facility.
    At a press conference, Goncalves, surrounded by the entire Iron Range delegation of state legislators as well as Gov. Mark Dayton, Lt. Gov. Tina Smith and U.S. Rep. Rick Nolan, stated his case for before members of the media and numerous contractors. He called for support for his plan to gain control of the Essar site and resume construction.
    Those with the most to lose if Essar is forced out of the game could be local contractors. Current estimates by the state suggest that India-based Essar collectively owes contractors in Minnesota $49 million for work done at the former Butler site near Nashwauk.
    “I understand your frustration. But, we’re not here to talk about the past,” Goncalves said. “We’re not going to build another taconite plant… (our proposal is) to build the first of several DRI units that will populate the Iron Range over the next 10 years.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mho07 mho07 Jul 12, 2016 2:40 PM Flag

    CLF is pointed 9% higher pre-market, following a price-target hike to $10.50 from $7 at J.P. Morgan Securities. Already, the mining stock has more than quadrupled in value year-to-date -- in step with the wider commodities sector -- closing Monday at $6.72. Additional bullish brokerage attention could further boost Cliffs Natural Resources Inc shares, too. Three-quarters of the analysts tracking the stock rate it a "hold" or worse, leaving the door wide open to future upgrades.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mho07 mho07 Jul 12, 2016 8:21 AM Flag

    Do you have a link for the upgrade??? TIA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Is Cliffs’s valuation justified?

    by mho07 Jul 12, 2016 8:03 AM
    mho07 mho07 Jul 12, 2016 8:19 AM Flag

    FYI: I'm long cliff since 2014. If I was short why would my sediment a strong buy. Read first before you post moron.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF) is trading at a forward EV-to-EBITDA multiple of 9.6x compared with its last five-year average of 8.0x. While Cliffs might look expensive, it’s important to note that the company went through one of its worst phases in the last two to three years due to ill-timed investments, which led to burgeoning debt and losses.
    Investors should also consider that even after the current 234% rise in Cliffs’s share price year-to-date, its price has only reached the level it was at last June when the US steel prices were 40% lower as compared to the current level. Investors should note that for commodity (GCC) companies, valuation multiples tend to peak when the economic cycle is about to take a turn for the better.

    In its upcoming 2Q16 results, management’s commentary regarding the growth trajectory in the form of DRI (direct reduced iron) or further debt reduction plans could act as a catalyst to drive its multiple even higher.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Cliffs Natural Resources Inc
    CLF
    announced the earlier restart of United Taconite and raised its 2016 sales and production guidance to 18mm and 16.5 mm long tons, respectively. Macquarie’s Anthony Young upgraded the rating for the company from Neutral to Outperform, while raising the price target from $4.00 to $7.50.

    Analyst Anthony Young expects Cliffs Natural’s earnings and cash flow to improve, following the rally in domestic steel prices and volumes. He believes 2017 and 2018 would be an improvement over 2016. Since the United Taconite mine has an annual capacity of 5.4 mm tons, sales of 20 mm tons of iron ore is likely in 2017 and beyond.

    Read more: http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/16/06/8097948/cliffs-natural-shares-upgraded-to-outperform-by-macquari#ixzz4EC30qudt

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mho07 mho07 Jul 11, 2016 12:48 PM Flag

    what are "pellots" ;-)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    $6.60's then very little resistance to $8

    by ecartmen1997 Jul 9, 2016 1:00 PM
    mho07 mho07 Jul 9, 2016 11:05 PM Flag

    $28 was my first purchased for 500 shares in 2014. Bought several times this year, so my average is much lower. I think this stock can get to $25 to $30 in 2018.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    $6.60's then very little resistance to $8

    by ecartmen1997 Jul 9, 2016 1:00 PM
    mho07 mho07 Jul 9, 2016 1:29 PM Flag

    over $28 will put all my positions in the green. :-(

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Essar Minnesota declares bankruptcy

    by ironorestrong Jul 8, 2016 5:19 PM
    mho07 mho07 Jul 8, 2016 6:08 PM Flag

    continued.....
    “The state of Minnesota will continue those negotiations with Cliffs and obtain a firm commitment to execute those plans, before the leases are re-assigned. Mr. Goncalves and I will travel to the Range on Tuesday to discuss his plans in greater detail,’’ Dayton said. "I remain dedicated to assuring that these state leases are utilized by a responsible entity to mine and process their resources, and to create more jobs and further economic growth on the Iron Range.”

    Goncalves said he’s eager to get involved in the Essar project, especially working toward creating a directly reduced iron plant at the site. That product is used in the electric steel mills which can’t use traditional taconite iron ore from Minnesota.

    “I am pleased that Minnesota Governor Mark Dayton has moved to terminate the state's existing agreement for the iron ore mineral leases at the Nashwauk mine site. This is the first step in a long-term development process that we believe holds tremendous potential for job creation on the Iron Range,’’ he said. “Cliffs looks forward to the opportunity to work in partnership with Governor Dayton's administration to develop the Nashwauk site as part of our future growth plans toward the production of value-added iron products in Minnesota.”

    The state owns the mineral rights under about 44 percent of the land where Essar wants to dig for taconite iron ore in what's considered one of the richest deposits on the Iron Range, said Tom Landwehr, Department of Natural Resources commissioner.

    The DNR awarded the leases to Essar, as it does to many mining companies, in exchange for a lease fee ($194,000 annually) and a royalty on any future ore mined from those parcels.

    Several private trusts also own mineral leases where the Essar mine would be located, but it is unlikely Essar could proceed without the state leases.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Essar Minnesota declares bankruptcy

    by ironorestrong Jul 8, 2016 5:19 PM
    mho07 mho07 Jul 8, 2016 6:01 PM Flag

    Essar Steel Minnesota, which once promised the state’s first new taconite plant in decades and the state’s first directly reduced iron plant, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection Friday without fulfilling either of those promises.
    The company filed in federal court in Delaware immediately after Minnesota Gov. Mark Dayton refused to extend a deadline to terminate Essar’s state mineral leases that gave them access to the iron ore at the proposed mine site outside Nashwauk.

    Dayton said he took back the leases because it’s clear the company doesn't have the financial ability to finish the job or pay its contractors.

    Dayton in May had set a July 1 deadline for Essar, which has been out of cash since 2015, to come up with a financing plan to pay its creditors and contractors and complete the $1.9 billion project that sits half built and idle.

    The company could not meet the deadline and asked for another extension.
    Dayton said no.

    “This morning I instructed the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources to terminate Essar Steel Minnesota’s lease agreements with the state,” Dayton said in a statement. “The company has been told for the past nine months that the state would not extend those leases beyond July 1, 2016, unless it paid the full amounts it owed to Minnesota contractors and showed that it had the ability to carry its current construction project through to completion. The company has not done so, and has provided no reliable assurances that it will be able to do so in the foreseeable future.”

    Essar has been looking for either bank credit or partners in the site, but its creditors — the company owes more than $1 billion on the project — also have been shopping the project around with Essar out of the picture.

    It’s not clear how Essar’s assets at Nashwauk will be handled by the bankruptcy court. But on Friday, Dayton threw his support to Cliffs Natural Resources to take on the project, saying he recently met with Cliffs CEO Lourenco Goncalves. Goncalves

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    IO Futures continue to rise

    by higrm Jun 28, 2016 5:50 AM
    mho07 mho07 Jun 28, 2016 7:33 AM Flag

    thanks

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Brexit gives a further reason to buy Asian and emerging markets stocks, according to CLSA‘s chief equity strategist Christopher Wood. Wood raised emerging markets to Overweight this morning.

    First, Brexit is good for commodities such as iron ore and steel, thereby boosting Asia’s material stocks. This is because a steal QE, in the form of a cheaper pound and euro that resulted from Britain leaving the European Union, provides an excuse for more monetary and fiscal easing. “Infrastructure stimulus in the G7 world should give some sort of bid to the commodity complex on a global basis,” wrote Wood.

    Indeed, commodity traders in China agree. Iron ore futures jumped 5.2% this morning, hard-rolled coil (steel) soared 4.5%. The Shanghai Composite Index gained 0.7%, with coal miners soaring 3.8% on average. Fortescue Metals (FMG.Australia) soared 5.1%, Rio Tinto (RIO) gained 1.9%, BHP Billiton (BHP) was up 1.8%.

    Second, Brexit relieves pressure on the People’s Bank of China, which is trying to liberalize its exchange rate while keeping capital outflow under control. The deep slump in the British pound gives the PBoC another excuse to guide its yuan fix lower.

    Indeed, the PBoC’s yuan-dollar fix is at a 6-year low this morning, even though the pound still tumbled 8.7% against the yuan in onshore trading.

    Third, Wood raised emerging markets to Overweight “given the increased negative outlook on European equities given the political uncertainties raised by Brexit and given the negative consequences of even more negative interest rates and more negative bond yields for European banks.”

    Wood continues to see gold price soaring to $4,200 an oz. G7 central bankers are crazy, in Wood’s view.

    On Friday, the Deutsche X-Trackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares ETF (ASHR) fell 3.6%, the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) was down 6.1%.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • mho07 mho07 Jun 27, 2016 7:18 AM Flag

    Again, thanks for the info and much appreciated!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Maybe some smart shorts covering

    by ajsuff Jun 24, 2016 9:48 AM
    mho07 mho07 Jun 24, 2016 9:51 AM Flag

    I concur with your statement..

    Sentiment: Buy

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