I'm actually pulling for someone to just take them out at $3/share. Be a fair deal
You could short but at what price? Companies with $400m ($1.65 per share) in the bank with no debt and a $150m roasting facility generating enough cash to cover the company overhead, with moly mines ready to go at higher prices and some other properties don't sell for $1/share. They sell for $3/share easy. That's why I don't understand the fret about a $1bb sale for their MM ownership unless you are only in for a rocket ship. They sell it for $1bb today, pay off the debt, put the remaining cash in the bank with the other cash and inventory etc., run langeloth and make some decisions on the mines, you have a stock fairly valued at a few bucks.
What is typical in the mining industry or for the market in general for buyout offers on companies that have leverage problems. Do the bids come in at a discount because they smell blood in the water and figure I'll lowball because they are desperate or would the offers be in line with what the market would value the asset based on pure valuation metrix?
Gatr just curious as to why you would expect the stock to tank? If the story were accurate, with cash on hand and any residual remained portions of the company, it would correlate to a share price somewhere in the $1.50-$3 range. So why would it tank at 40 cents? Sure it would cut the legs out of many of us long hopefuls regarding fully realized future value, but it would still be at a minimum several multiple higher than the current price. Frankly the current price is a joke to me. When you have options of potential refi and at worst case a liquidation scenario in the $1-1.5bb range on net $700k in debt, a market cap of $90m is a farce.
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Unless valuations here are unrealistic. Ultra says 1/4-1/3 of MM for $300-$400mm, then that values the whole mine at over $1bb. Maybe that's way too high. Maybe the industry values it at half that.
I tend to agree. I just don't think management and their advisors are that "stupid" as people say. Not until you actually know what their plan is can you really judge it. My problem is I wish we knew a little more about that plan. In the end the fallback is that even if the cannot meet the debt obligations as they move closer to maturity, there is a ton they can unload here. As folks on here have talked about, other comparable deals would probably value MtM at at least $1bb, plus langeloth, TC and the other assets, you have to figure a deal would be at least $1.25-$1.5bb. Even after the $750bb in net debt is paid off, that leaves between $500-$750mm in shareholder equity. So likely $2.50-$3/share which is 10x the current price. That's in the worst case where they are running out of time and can't keep the lights on much longer.
Is it that much different than you owning a $1mm home with $600k mortgage that you can't afford to pay any longer, maybe you try to figure things out and stay, but in the end if you can't at least you can dump it and walk away with equity. Sure in a distressed sale maybe you get $800k instead of $1mm, but you still walk away with good equity. This isn't a out of favor retail company or a busted technology that nobody wants anymore. These are hard valuable and cash profit producing assets.
Am I missing something here?