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Enterprise Products Partners L.P. Message Board

mizzou1966 283 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 10, 2016 1:47 PM Member since: Sep 4, 2005
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  • Reply to

    tep no good

    by loser2015may Jul 7, 2016 9:04 PM
    mizzou1966 mizzou1966 Jul 10, 2016 1:47 PM Flag

    Like your positive outlook. Always good to know what losers are doing.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • mizzou1966 by mizzou1966 Jul 10, 2016 10:19 AM Flag

    How many double digit Q/Q distribution increases does TEGP going to have to make before the stock approaches fair value? Historically, TEGP has sported a 3.6% yield. After the recent distribution increase, (even with the three day price increase), the yield stands at 4.1%. That makes TEGP at least 15% under valued. Let's look at it another way. In May 2015, TEGP IPO price was 29. Closing at 23.87 on Friday, TEGP is still 17.7% below the IPO price; however, the results (earnings and distributions) have far exceeded expectations. Historically, TEGP has increased Q/Q distribution by ~16%. But, what will happen in the future? IMO, TEGP should have a Q/Q distribution increase of 12-16% over the next 2 1/2 years. Stop an think for a minute. This equates to a CAGR of 57.3% to 81.0%. Yield at that point (10 quarters from now) could be in the 12.7% to 18,1%, based on the current price. That is not too shabby even if we the growth dramatically slows after 2018. But, who says growth will not continue even if it is a somewhat muted pace. Two and a half years worth of substantial growth are pretty much baked in...considering the planned dropdown of the second and third 25% interests in REX (expected Q2 of 2017 and 2018). Why do I pound the table for TEGP? It is simple; I've look at hundreds of stocks and none of the others can match up to TEGP's track record (earnings and distribution increases) AND future expectations. 80% CAGR for the past year and expectations for 57% to 81% CAGR for the next 2 to 2 1/2 years are highly unusual. Sooner or later, the stock price will follow earnings and distributions. The longer the stock price stays under valued, the larger the pop when investors finally appreciate TEGP. The biggest knocks against TEGP seem to be it is a new equity (just a five quarter track record) and many traders and investors have never heard of it. But, as and investor, isn't that when you want to buy?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Hey Phil.... Was reading EPDs headlines....

    by doogoo1 Jul 8, 2016 5:54 PM
    mizzou1966 mizzou1966 Jul 8, 2016 8:09 PM Flag

    Q2 distribution? MLPs and their GPs (if they have one) name the distribution for the quarter in which it is earned, not doe the quarter when it is paid. Hence, the Q2 distributions (paid in August) are for the April-June quarter. Confusing? Maybe, but that is just the accepted practice. Most MLPs/GPs pay within 45-50 days after the end of the quarter. It is sort of like getting paid shortly after doing the work.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Friday Purchase

    by cottonbelter Jul 8, 2016 10:34 AM
    mizzou1966 mizzou1966 Jul 8, 2016 3:50 PM Flag

    TEGP is acting the same way it acted after the distribution covering Q1 was announced. There was a slow steady increase after the distribution announcement into the May 17 presentation following the 25% purchase of REX by TEP. The recovery high (26.81) and closing high (26.44) were both May 23. After the pop following the announcement, TEGP faded until the Q2 distribution announcement this week. With the16.7% distribution announcement, TEGP has starting moving north again. With 15 minutes before the close, TEGP is trading around 23.84. That gives a 4.1% yield. I am expecting Q/Q increases in the 14-16% area for at least the next four quarters. That would be a forward yield of 6.9-7.4% (based on today's price). At current levels, TEGP is still a STRONG BUY.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    MLPFS

    by skinz4q Jun 22, 2016 3:14 PM
    mizzou1966 mizzou1966 Jul 6, 2016 2:26 PM Flag

    If you like MMP at these levels, consider sell cash secure puts. I like the MMP Aug 67.5 puts around .75. You get a nice yield for about a month and a half or get that plus buying the shares at 67.50.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    TEP vs TEGP

    by mizzou1966 Jun 5, 2016 8:47 PM
    mizzou1966 mizzou1966 Jul 6, 2016 2:01 PM Flag

    2Q16 distributions announced: TEP .755 (+7.1% Q/Q) and TEGP .245 (16.7% Q/Q and 84.2% Y/Y). As I've posted previously, I like TEP, but love TEGP. For TEGP, I was looking for at least a +12% distribution increase and considered 15% as outstanding. And, we are most likely looking for excellent results for at least the next 10 quarters (thanks to great management and dropdowns planned for 2Q17 and 2Q18). TEP stock is actually down as I write this and TEGP is trading up slightly. My recommendation: Buy either or both. But, if you like longer term total return (capital gains plus distribution), TEGP could be a huge winner. Disclaimer: Long TEGP

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    The reason I moved my 401(k) over to TEP

    by investorzzo Jun 26, 2016 8:18 PM
    mizzou1966 mizzou1966 Jul 6, 2016 10:57 AM Flag

    Investorzzo, I see your point. However, if your are looking at the longer term, TEGP should far exceed TEP on a total return basis. Example? Let's look at TEP growing distributions by 6% Q/Q and TEGP at 14% Q/Q. We'll add in current yields; 6.6% for TEP and 4.3% for TEGP.
    Annualized price increase due to keep yield stable: TEP 26.2% and TEGP 68.9%. Projected annualized total return: TEP 26.2 + 6.6 = 33.8% and TEGP 68.9 + 4.3 = 73.2%. Will TEP and TEGP hit these projected distributions and price (value) levels? Nothing is guaranteed, but with two more dropdowns programed for Q2 2017 and 2018, the chances to meet or beat these projections are excellent...at least through 2018 (10 more quarters. IMO, you will do well with TEP. (Note: You might even want to go 50-50 on the two stocks/partnerships.) And, if you go with management (TEGP is 70% owned by management and management groups), you could do super, excellent, outstanding. I have a STRONG BUY on TEP under 50 and a SUPER DUPPER STRONG BUY on TEGP under 25. Good luck.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    2Q2016 Distribution Announcement

    by mizzou1966 Jul 6, 2016 8:25 AM
    mizzou1966 mizzou1966 Jul 6, 2016 8:43 AM Flag

    One more comment, I was looking at 12% Q/Q distribution increase as the bottom line and 15%, or more, as outstanding. Coming at 16.7%, Q2 was a terrific winner. My expectations for Q3 and Q4 will be in the same area. Either TEGP will respond with a strong price more (where investors realize its huge potential) or not (and we'll be able to buy more shares at these "discounted" prices). Either way, long term TEGP investors should be huge winners. Good luck.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • TEGP just increased the Q2 distribution to .245 (+16.7% Q/Q and +84.2% Y/Y from the pro forma 2Q15 distribution). With at least two more major dropdowns (each 25% of REX) planned for 2Q2017 and 2Q2018, it is reasonable to look for 12% plus Q/Q increases at least through 2018. At 22.43 (yesterday's closing price), the annualized yield is now 4.37%. Better yet, TEGP has increased the distribution +84.2% over the pro forma distribution (non pro rated) for 2Q2015. Disclosure: Long TEGP.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    The reason I moved my 401(k) over to TEP

    by investorzzo Jun 26, 2016 8:18 PM
    mizzou1966 mizzou1966 Jul 1, 2016 7:33 PM Flag

    I don't know about the tax rules for 401(k)s. Just keep in mind that it is a mess if you get more than $1000 a year from MLPs in IRAs. You might want to see if this also applies to 401(k)s. If it does, or you just want to simply everything, consider switching from TEP (the MLP) to TEGP (the GP). TEGP gets 1099s, rather than K-1s (like the MLPs). Yes, the TEGP distribution is less; however, the Q/Q increase will usually double that of TEP and (over time) you can expect twice as much share appreciation. If you need more on TEGP, you might want to read my posts on the TEGP board and view/read all the press releases and presentations. I usually only post on the TEGP board, but want to comment on your post. Good luck. Note: I have no position in TEP.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    End of Q2

    by mizzou1966 Jun 30, 2016 5:01 PM
    mizzou1966 mizzou1966 Jul 1, 2016 2:20 PM Flag

    One other point...even on Seeking Alpha, writers have confused numbers (distributions and earnings) for TEP and TEGP. It takes effort to dig out the facts and follow the MLP (TEP) and the GP (TEGP). However, it can be well worth the effort. I'll have more comments after the distribution announcement. The low on the increase should be ~12%. With Q1 being just over 21%, that may be the top for some people. IMO, that would be a real stretch. I will be very happy with .24 (+14.3% increase) for TEGP and .745 (+5.7%) for TEP. We live in interesting times...especially when we are TEGP shareholders.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    End of Q2

    by mizzou1966 Jun 30, 2016 5:01 PM
    mizzou1966 mizzou1966 Jul 1, 2016 1:47 PM Flag

    Only 30% of the current market cap of TEGP is currently available for purchase. These are the 47,725,000 Class A shares. The other 70% of the equity is in the Class B shares held by management and management firms. There should be no dilution upon conversion...which I have read can occur only when the Class A shares trade above the $29 IPO price. The new Class A shares (for the conversion from Class B) are or were in the process of being registered. All reported numbers (revenues, earnings, and distributions) are calculated based on both classes of shares. As last reported (Jan-Apr), the top ten mutual fund holders are holding about 20 million shares. Unless there is big news, volume should be low most days. All I do is add 200-400 shares on dips to my 10K shares plus. (Never have too many shares of TEGP...especially with the next distribution announcement less than 90 days away. Currently, it is less than 14 days away...and the clock is ticking.) You have probably heard it before, but IMO, TEGP is a totally unique stock and is best held until the big picture for mid-stream energy significantly changes. This could happen at some point, but I don't see it happening within 5 years. So, when it comes to TEGP, I'm an accumulator. Early each quarter, I get excited about the potential (distribution and earnings) for TEGP. We are now within 2 weeks of the distribution announcement and (probably) just under 5 weeks out from the earnings release and conference call. Good luck.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • mizzou1966 by mizzou1966 Jun 30, 2016 5:01 PM Flag

    TEGP followed up a strong Q1 with a 23.5% gain in Q2. YTD TEGP is +44.5%. Distribution announcement for TEGP and TEP is now due anytime (Jul 1-15). These announcements are typically on Tuesday, Wednesday, or Thursday, Also, the release times vary from pre market to within 15 minutes after the close of trading. I could not resist; added another 200 shares on the dip to 22.40 this afternoon. Really interested to see the size of the distribution increase. I'm expecting ~12% and hoping for 15% plus. IMO, TEGP remains a STRONG BUY in the low 20s.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Two weeks from tomorrow: End of Q2.

    by mizzou1966 Jun 15, 2016 11:08 AM
    mizzou1966 mizzou1966 Jun 28, 2016 4:43 PM Flag

    Added another 400 shares yesterday (Monday). We are now 2-11 trading days away from the distribution announcement Doubt it will be this Friday, so really expect it any time (pre or post market) starting on next Tuesday (Jul 5). I will be looking for .24 (+14.3% Q/Q). It is hard to not get excited as the end of Q2 approaches. Last year, Tallgrass Energy announced on Jul 15. Note: That was the first quarter for both TEP and TEGP. In 2014 it was one Jul 1 and the very first distribution for TEP was on Jul 18. All other quarters, the announcement has been between the 5th and the 15th (of the month following the end of the quarter). I have written to management suggesting they pick a nearly uniform date and time (pre or post market) to announce distributions. This would be similar to their pattern of paying the distributions in the area of the 12th to 14th day of the month after the announcement. Under 22, TEGP is a STRONG BUY. Current yield is just over 3.9% and could be close to 4.5% within 16 calendar days, or less. Plus, I am looking for strong Q/Q distribution increases for at least three more years. What will be interesting is to see if the percentage smoothes out or varies a lot. Either way, IMO they should compound at 57.3% Y/Y (which equates to 12% Q/Q compounded). Bottom line: An investor buying TEGP in the low 20s should be richly rewarded of the next five years.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Two weeks from tomorrow: End of Q2.

    by mizzou1966 Jun 15, 2016 11:08 AM
    mizzou1966 mizzou1966 Jun 24, 2016 8:47 PM Flag

    Well timed purchase. I set some bull put spreads on other stocks and then entered a buy at 21.50; later raised it to 21.55, but no fills. Will see how it opens on Monday, and maybe try to buy at or below 21.50. Did get a fill on selling more TEGP Oct 22.5 puts...late in the day. I just don't see how TEGP could be selling below 22.50 after the Q3 distribution announcement (early to mid-Oct). At that time, annualize distribution is projected to be at, or above, 1.06 which is a 4.9%+ yield. (Note: Just four more trading/business days till the end of Q2 and probably 4-14 trading days till the distribution announcement. Good luck.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Two weeks from tomorrow: End of Q2.

    by mizzou1966 Jun 15, 2016 11:08 AM
    mizzou1966 mizzou1966 Jun 17, 2016 11:46 PM Flag

    Love picking up more TEGP shares just above 22.50. That should give a 4.1% plus yield when we have the next distribution announcement (in about four weeks, or less). Still looking for a YE16 price around 30 and a YE17 price around 47. Under 23; TEGP is a STRONG BUY!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • After the end of Q2 on Thursday, Jun 30, we should be two weeks, or less, away from the next distribution announcement. And, then the distribution should be paid late in the second week in August. I'm looking for a minimum of .235 (+11.9% Q/Q) and maximum of .245 (+16.6% Q/Q). Anything less than .235 should be seen as negative (I don't think that will happen). On the other hand, anything above .245 should be seen as outstanding. I'll take it, but I'm not looking for anything above .245. IMO, TEGP is a very unique situation. Personally, I'm don't trade TEGP. Yes, I may add or sell a few hundred shares from time to time; however, mostly I'm holding or slowly adding for the intermediate to longer term. The compounded long term distribution growth could turn TEGP into a huge winner...only if you hold on to for the ride.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Superb buying opportunity.

    by mizzou1966 Jun 13, 2016 11:04 AM
    mizzou1966 mizzou1966 Jun 14, 2016 1:35 PM Flag

    Good call. i'm waiting to transfer some funds. Would rather wait till we are about two weeks out from the expected distribution announcement date. Expect the news to be positive. If it stays under 23.50 in a week or two, I'll probably add 400+ shares. If it bounces back, then I'll just hold. Except we are currently within one month of the announcement.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Superb buying opportunity.

    by mizzou1966 Jun 13, 2016 11:04 AM
    mizzou1966 mizzou1966 Jun 13, 2016 11:15 AM Flag

    One other point, Zack's has a 24% annual 3-5 year EPS growth expectation of TEGP. With TEP growth in distributions expected to be in the 20% plus range (management has target 20% distribution growth for 2017 and 2018), the numbers for TEGP look to be low. Keep in mind, TEGP growth is expected to be a minimum of twice that of TEP...and that is on a Q/Q basis which works out to even more when annualized. I noted when TEGP was down about .70 this morning, TEP was actually up. That makes no sense since TEGP performance should track that of TEP (by a factor of two) over the longer term.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • This morning, we got a superb buying opportunity. TEGP dipped below 24 and at the start of this post has rebounded to 24.50, just down .14 for the day. Importantly, we are just 4 weeks, plus or minus a few days, until the next distribution announcement. The earliest Tallgrass Energy has announced a distribution after Q2 has been Jul 1 and the latest has been Jul 18. I am targeting Thursday, Jul 14. The amount of the distribution increase could be the key to the intermediate price response. Management has projected about a 12% Q/Q increase, indicating about .235. My projection is for a 15% increase to .2415. Anything above 15% will be outstanding. Other than waiting for the announcement, what can we do? Two logical choices: Buy on dips and hold tight to any TEGP shares you are lucky enough to own. Longer term, I am looking for a dividend in the .33 to .37 range for the distribution following 1Q17 (expected to be paid in May 2017). I have a BUY rating on TEGP up to 25 and a STRONG BUY under 23. Good luck.

    Sentiment: Buy

EPD
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