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Enterprise Products Partners L.P. Message Board

mizzou1966 29 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 10, 2016 1:47 PM Member since: Sep 4, 2005
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  • Reply to

    Hey Phil.... Was reading EPDs headlines....

    by doogoo1 Jul 8, 2016 5:54 PM
    mizzou1966 mizzou1966 Jul 8, 2016 8:09 PM Flag

    Q2 distribution? MLPs and their GPs (if they have one) name the distribution for the quarter in which it is earned, not doe the quarter when it is paid. Hence, the Q2 distributions (paid in August) are for the April-June quarter. Confusing? Maybe, but that is just the accepted practice. Most MLPs/GPs pay within 45-50 days after the end of the quarter. It is sort of like getting paid shortly after doing the work.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • mizzou1966 by mizzou1966 Jun 5, 2016 8:47 PM Flag

    TEP has had 11 distribution increases since its first distribution after 2Q13. The average increase has been 8.5% Q/Q (38.6% annualized). TEGP went public May 2015. TEGP has had 3 distribution increases since the initial one for 2Q15. The average Q/Q increase for TEGP has been 16.2% compared to 7.9% for TEP over the same last three quarters. Management has stated that TEP distribution should increase by (at least) 6.18% over the next two quarters. Using the same ratio for TEGP, I am projecting the TEGP distribution increase at 12.6% (or higher) for the 2Q16 and 3Q16 quarters. That compounds at 60.7% annualized. Bottom line: I like TEP and love TEGP. Good luck.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    tep no good

    by loser2015may Jul 7, 2016 9:04 PM
    mizzou1966 mizzou1966 Jul 10, 2016 1:47 PM Flag

    Like your positive outlook. Always good to know what losers are doing.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    End of Q2

    by mizzou1966 Jun 30, 2016 5:01 PM
    mizzou1966 mizzou1966 Jul 1, 2016 2:20 PM Flag

    One other point...even on Seeking Alpha, writers have confused numbers (distributions and earnings) for TEP and TEGP. It takes effort to dig out the facts and follow the MLP (TEP) and the GP (TEGP). However, it can be well worth the effort. I'll have more comments after the distribution announcement. The low on the increase should be ~12%. With Q1 being just over 21%, that may be the top for some people. IMO, that would be a real stretch. I will be very happy with .24 (+14.3% increase) for TEGP and .745 (+5.7%) for TEP. We live in interesting times...especially when we are TEGP shareholders.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    End of Q2

    by mizzou1966 Jun 30, 2016 5:01 PM
    mizzou1966 mizzou1966 Jul 1, 2016 1:47 PM Flag

    Only 30% of the current market cap of TEGP is currently available for purchase. These are the 47,725,000 Class A shares. The other 70% of the equity is in the Class B shares held by management and management firms. There should be no dilution upon conversion...which I have read can occur only when the Class A shares trade above the $29 IPO price. The new Class A shares (for the conversion from Class B) are or were in the process of being registered. All reported numbers (revenues, earnings, and distributions) are calculated based on both classes of shares. As last reported (Jan-Apr), the top ten mutual fund holders are holding about 20 million shares. Unless there is big news, volume should be low most days. All I do is add 200-400 shares on dips to my 10K shares plus. (Never have too many shares of TEGP...especially with the next distribution announcement less than 90 days away. Currently, it is less than 14 days away...and the clock is ticking.) You have probably heard it before, but IMO, TEGP is a totally unique stock and is best held until the big picture for mid-stream energy significantly changes. This could happen at some point, but I don't see it happening within 5 years. So, when it comes to TEGP, I'm an accumulator. Early each quarter, I get excited about the potential (distribution and earnings) for TEGP. We are now within 2 weeks of the distribution announcement and (probably) just under 5 weeks out from the earnings release and conference call. Good luck.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    The reason I moved my 401(k) over to TEP

    by investorzzo Jun 26, 2016 8:18 PM
    mizzou1966 mizzou1966 Jul 1, 2016 7:33 PM Flag

    I don't know about the tax rules for 401(k)s. Just keep in mind that it is a mess if you get more than $1000 a year from MLPs in IRAs. You might want to see if this also applies to 401(k)s. If it does, or you just want to simply everything, consider switching from TEP (the MLP) to TEGP (the GP). TEGP gets 1099s, rather than K-1s (like the MLPs). Yes, the TEGP distribution is less; however, the Q/Q increase will usually double that of TEP and (over time) you can expect twice as much share appreciation. If you need more on TEGP, you might want to read my posts on the TEGP board and view/read all the press releases and presentations. I usually only post on the TEGP board, but want to comment on your post. Good luck. Note: I have no position in TEP.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • TEGP just increased the Q2 distribution to .245 (+16.7% Q/Q and +84.2% Y/Y from the pro forma 2Q15 distribution). With at least two more major dropdowns (each 25% of REX) planned for 2Q2017 and 2Q2018, it is reasonable to look for 12% plus Q/Q increases at least through 2018. At 22.43 (yesterday's closing price), the annualized yield is now 4.37%. Better yet, TEGP has increased the distribution +84.2% over the pro forma distribution (non pro rated) for 2Q2015. Disclosure: Long TEGP.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Insider Buying!

    by mizzou1966 May 28, 2016 4:05 PM
    mizzou1966 mizzou1966 Jun 2, 2016 5:45 PM Flag

    Harehau, agree. The sell off this morning/today was not warranted! There was a report about TEGP registering some 109 million Class A shares. This was a nothing burger. TEGP simply registered the Class A shares that will be needed down the line when the insiders covert their Class B shares. Everyone needs to be aware that the Class B shares are (already) included in the per share earnings and dividend amount. When the conversion comes (all at once or in steps), nothing will change except there will be more tax write offs...which will lower the tax bill.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Consider selling TEGP Oct 22.50 puts at 1.90, or better. That is the recent price. I sold a pack of puts in that area this morning. The yield to expiration is ~8.4% (24.4% annualized). And, expiration should be after the second distribution (mid-Oct). I would really love to buy the shares around 20.70, including commissions. By then, I expect the annualized distribution to be in the area of 1.06 (which would give me a 5.1% yield, or better...if the shares were assigned). Note: Any time you can buy the shares at an effective price of 21, or better, they are a very strong buy.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    If you like TEGP, consider....

    by mizzou1966 Jun 9, 2016 11:03 AM
    mizzou1966 mizzou1966 Jun 9, 2016 6:27 PM Flag

    TEGP Oct 22.50 put closed at 2.00 today. This is a very attractive short. The current premium yields about 8.6% over 19 weeks (23.5% annualized)...even figuring a reasonable commission. Good luck.

  • Good question. Many investors/traders either don't know about TEGP, haven't done the research, or just don't believe that a partnership like TEGP can become a huge winner (over the next 4-5 years). We are almost into the second half of 2016. The market is beginning to look at future earnings and dividends...that means 2017. IMO, TEGP distributions could easily average 12% Q/Q through 2017...and potentially beyond. Let's look at my forecast for the calendar year 2017 distributions (the anticipated payments in 2017, not the payments relating to 1Q17-4Q17 operations. For 4Q16 (paid in Feb 17) I'm looking for .295. For the next three quarters, I'm looking for .33, .37, and .414. The individual payments may vary somewhat; however, overall, I'm looking at 1.41, or more, in distributions in calendar 2017.
    Based on the current 24 price, the yield (for next year) projects to 5.87%. In addition, the annualized rate (just thought the 3Q17 payment projected for Nov 2017) would be 1.656, or a 6.9% yield...again based on a 24 cost basis. My price projections for TEGP are based upon a current annualize yield range of 3.5-4.0%. That would give a late 2017 (18 month) target price of 41.40 to 47.31, or 72% to 97% above the current price. Is that all? Will TEGP stop growing or grow only in the single digits annualized in 2018 and beyond. Well. I'm from Texas and I'm betting the ranch that the growth will continue in the high single digit to low double digit range (Q over Q) for more than several years beyond 2017. With 5-6 weeks till the next distribution announcement, I'm at a BUY limit of 25. Disclaimer: Long TEGP and short TEGP Jul 25 puts. (Recently bought back the Jun puts and sold the same number of Jul puts...which expire after the next expected distribution announcement.) Good luck.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Two weeks from tomorrow: End of Q2.

    by mizzou1966 Jun 15, 2016 11:08 AM
    mizzou1966 mizzou1966 Jun 24, 2016 8:47 PM Flag

    Well timed purchase. I set some bull put spreads on other stocks and then entered a buy at 21.50; later raised it to 21.55, but no fills. Will see how it opens on Monday, and maybe try to buy at or below 21.50. Did get a fill on selling more TEGP Oct 22.5 puts...late in the day. I just don't see how TEGP could be selling below 22.50 after the Q3 distribution announcement (early to mid-Oct). At that time, annualize distribution is projected to be at, or above, 1.06 which is a 4.9%+ yield. (Note: Just four more trading/business days till the end of Q2 and probably 4-14 trading days till the distribution announcement. Good luck.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Two weeks from tomorrow: End of Q2.

    by mizzou1966 Jun 15, 2016 11:08 AM
    mizzou1966 mizzou1966 Jun 17, 2016 11:46 PM Flag

    Love picking up more TEGP shares just above 22.50. That should give a 4.1% plus yield when we have the next distribution announcement (in about four weeks, or less). Still looking for a YE16 price around 30 and a YE17 price around 47. Under 23; TEGP is a STRONG BUY!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    2Q2016 Distribution Announcement

    by mizzou1966 Jul 6, 2016 8:25 AM
    mizzou1966 mizzou1966 Jul 6, 2016 8:43 AM Flag

    One more comment, I was looking at 12% Q/Q distribution increase as the bottom line and 15%, or more, as outstanding. Coming at 16.7%, Q2 was a terrific winner. My expectations for Q3 and Q4 will be in the same area. Either TEGP will respond with a strong price more (where investors realize its huge potential) or not (and we'll be able to buy more shares at these "discounted" prices). Either way, long term TEGP investors should be huge winners. Good luck.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Insider Buying!

    by mizzou1966 May 28, 2016 4:05 PM
    mizzou1966 mizzou1966 May 31, 2016 1:35 PM Flag

    Zack's has TEP rated a 3 (hold) and TEGP rated a 1 (strong buy). Also, at Friday's close of 24.47, the current yield was 3.43%. However, the 2017 projected dividend (calendar year actual payment) comes in at 1.41 (or 5.76%). This reflects 12% dividend Q/Q dividend increases through the Nov 2017 payment. Note: Based on management history and projections, 12% Q/Q gains are my minimum expectation...through not just payment following 3Q17 results, but through 2018. The numbers could be higher. We are now only about 5-6 weeks away from the next distribution announcement. Also, due to compounding, anything higher than 12% in the next few quarters will will really kick up the total return in the out years (year 4 and beyond). Disclosure: Added 200 more shares today when price dropped below Friday close. Continue to hold TEGP and short TEGP June and July puts. Finally, upped my Buy limit from 21 to 24.50 based on long term outlook and Zack's rating. Good luck.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Insider Buying!

    by mizzou1966 May 28, 2016 4:05 PM
    mizzou1966 mizzou1966 Jun 4, 2016 11:14 AM Flag

    Harehau, Good decision. Just don't sell; just hold and add on when the price dips.
    Keep in mind that the next distribution announcement should be within 6 weeks. Target dates: Tuesday July 5 - Thursday July 14. Management has projected a ~12% Q/Q increase (to .235). Keep in mind, management has almost always exceeded expectations. With the last two increases coming in at +.20.1% and +21.3%, this is a key quarter. Any increase of 15% plus would be very significant. Since I use +12% Q/Q projections for the next 4 years, any bumps above that early on makes it much easier to achieve the 57.35% annualized increase that 12% Q/Q would produce. Note: If the increases are bumped to (say) 16% Q/Q, the annualized increase jumps to +81%. I would have bought more this last week, but I'm short 6 Jun 25 puts and 10 Jul 25 puts which are still in the money. Since the Jul puts expire after the expected distribution announcement, I feel pretty sure they will expire. The Jun ones are much more iffy, so need to keep cash back just in case. Good luck.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    TEGP: Too good to be true?

    by mizzou1966 Jun 6, 2016 2:26 PM
    mizzou1966 mizzou1966 Jun 6, 2016 2:36 PM Flag

    One final point: After today, there are projected to be only 19 to 27 trading days before the next TEP and TEGP distribution announcements. I am looking for +6% rise for TEP and +12% for TEGP, (both Q/Q). If they come in higher, especially if TEGP comes in at 15%+, it could explode past the IPO price (29). In 6 to 19 weeks (Q3 distribution announcement for the latter), 24 may look like a super bargain price. Good luck.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    MLPFS

    by skinz4q Jun 22, 2016 3:14 PM
    mizzou1966 mizzou1966 Jul 6, 2016 2:26 PM Flag

    If you like MMP at these levels, consider sell cash secure puts. I like the MMP Aug 67.5 puts around .75. You get a nice yield for about a month and a half or get that plus buying the shares at 67.50.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Superb buying opportunity.

    by mizzou1966 Jun 13, 2016 11:04 AM
    mizzou1966 mizzou1966 Jun 13, 2016 11:15 AM Flag

    One other point, Zack's has a 24% annual 3-5 year EPS growth expectation of TEGP. With TEP growth in distributions expected to be in the 20% plus range (management has target 20% distribution growth for 2017 and 2018), the numbers for TEGP look to be low. Keep in mind, TEGP growth is expected to be a minimum of twice that of TEP...and that is on a Q/Q basis which works out to even more when annualized. I noted when TEGP was down about .70 this morning, TEP was actually up. That makes no sense since TEGP performance should track that of TEP (by a factor of two) over the longer term.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • After the end of Q2 on Thursday, Jun 30, we should be two weeks, or less, away from the next distribution announcement. And, then the distribution should be paid late in the second week in August. I'm looking for a minimum of .235 (+11.9% Q/Q) and maximum of .245 (+16.6% Q/Q). Anything less than .235 should be seen as negative (I don't think that will happen). On the other hand, anything above .245 should be seen as outstanding. I'll take it, but I'm not looking for anything above .245. IMO, TEGP is a very unique situation. Personally, I'm don't trade TEGP. Yes, I may add or sell a few hundred shares from time to time; however, mostly I'm holding or slowly adding for the intermediate to longer term. The compounded long term distribution growth could turn TEGP into a huge winner...only if you hold on to for the ride.

    Sentiment: Buy

EPD
26.47-0.13(-0.49%)Aug 30 4:02 PMEDT