I agree. Capex requirements - they've delayed deploying this in the past few years and machinery needs upgrading, operating in suspect countries - countries will want more $ for ounce produced, labor issues - people want higher pay, heavily indebted and overlevered balance sheets will prohibit consolidation for a while, large miners were going for higher grade ore to lower extraction costs, but now will switch to more expensive stuff keeping the margin the same even though the price is higher.
Many stop orders will be triggered as it falls, but no bids. These will be executed at the market perhaps $150 lower than spot. Very dangerous to hold this ETF now.
If you look at the underlying. All of these companies are trading at multi year highs and are junk even at current prices. Charts of the underlying companies are stretched out so far it is ridiculous. 10% - 15% correction for the underlying in a single session wouldn't be out of the question if we see Gold pullback.
This would cause JNUG trade at $160 - $205 in the same session and we would still trade at highs for the underlying.
And this type of move is almost imminent.
Bullish on Gold in USD terms and Yen. Would look to add on any weakness and certainly add at the current prices.
Gold Stocks are the most attractive asset class in the world and now are technically breaking out.
Buy NUGT, JNUG and double your money.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
FED minutes will be very positive for gold.
and the hype it has received in the short time.
Once this pulls back it will amaze everyone. GDX can easily drop 10-20% on the pullback and this one would get halved. Significant decay will happen on the pullback.
Way too stretched outside of bollinger bands.
will fall in the price. Recent buyers will become long term investors (long term investor = trader holding the bag).
Nothing survives in deflation.
Stretched so high above upper Bollinger band. I think it has hours to go before huge retrace. I'm talking about possible $80 - $100 points. Also when it comes down it comes down fast.
Trading 10% above upper bollinger band (backtested it gets hammered every time after it pierces the bands).
You'll notice that GDXJ is trading at 5 year high of 45.38 vs. 45.58 in 2013 and another peak in 2014.
JNUG was trading at 1993 and 1658 at those times. Right now with the same GDXJ it is trading at 238.
So we have 1400-1700 points of decay here.
Once GDXJ starts declining JNUG will fall much faster. I predict another reverse split based on history of decay due to inevitable pullbacks.
will suppress Yen's rise soon. Going into July 4th Holiday you can expect FED to make a positive tone for the markets to shoot up.
For this reason UVXY get's killed as it gets eaten more by decay. You can't hold this for the next 2 weeks.
is not really that important since GB has British Pound for the currency not Euro.
This exit would take 2 years and really not much would change.
The spike in Vix has to be sold and UVXY dumped due to inevitable contango return.
Big risk for UVXY will be BOJ hammering of the Yen. It is in the works. Carry yrades come back and market rockets. This is a big risk for Gold as well as BOJ intervention makes USD stronger and gold in turn gets hammered.
on cheap calls on SPY.
Without Brexit volatility will fall off the cliff and we'll have contango again in UVXY. This guarantees the fund to decay in value and now there is plenty of meat on the bone for shorts to kill it in this fund.
I think it closes at $10.50 - $11.25 tomorrow. Today by close it will touch $13.50.
Gold breaking 1200 would send it down huge.
Now I sold calls against my position and will let it be assigned or expired this Friday.