I'm thinking that the FDA has ALREADY TOLD Sarepta management that the drug will likely will be approved, pending receipt of the information they requested. Otherwise, why would they need the money now? And the supply will be gobbled up by the institutions, so look for a steady rise until the official announcement. In other news, the arbitrage boys will be all over this stock very quickly.
If Wall Street thought that this flagship drug had a great chance of approval from the FDA the end of this month, then the stock chart would be showing signs of recent accumulation. That is exactly what is happening....Ever since the panel rejection, the smart money has been accumulating, but don't just take my word, look at the daily chart, as well as the intraday charts.
As for the Wave press release, it's a non starter, because SRPT would be the first mover, and patients of this potentially fatal disease will not wait until at least 2018-2019 for another solution, since SRPT's drug will be on the market shortly after FDA approval.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
After reading everything and anything I could possibly find, including Ms.Woodcock's outspoken history with Sarepta over the past several years, I think everyone now realizes that she has the final say on the FDA decision on May 26.
Obviously this is great news for the patients and SRPT longs. But here's another thought, continuing with my accumulation theory:
SRPT has always wanted to go it alone, and take 100% of what could be a huge market opportunity in the US and Europe. Here's where it gets interesting: Does management take the risk/gamble of accelerated approval and reject the suitors out there, or is there a big player who sees the partnership or acquisition opportunity with SRPT, either with accelerated approval or not? Keep in mind, an FDA rejection May 26 is not a rejection of the drug, it's a rejection of near term accelerated approval. So I think the huge move off the lows from the panel disappointment may be a combination of Joe Edelman's hedge fund and others believing in approval with Janet's help, OR many on the street thinking a partnership could be imminent, even before May 26.....Does anyone else embrace this possible theory?
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I've just re read every post on this thread since the AH announcement today. Those who are short the stock have posted their subject titles in all capital letters....Why? Because they feel they have to scream. People tend to scream:
1. when they are desperate
2. when they are desperate for attention
3. when they are wrong
4. when they are trapped
5. when they are stuck
Don't take my word for it though, read through the posts. Every poster who used all caps in their subject titles and in the posts are short the stock, spreading fear, doubt, and uncertainty, in a desperate effort to have others sell their stock. I have news for them...unless you're a day trader, there's no reason to sell your SRPT stock now, because we all know this drug will finally be approved within the next few months or weeks.....The FDA is making every effort to get this drug approved quickly, and Sarepta just did a small cash raise, because they already know the boys with the disease will finally have some real hope. This drug will be approved.
It's not unusual (apologies to Tom Jones) for traders to sell after the initial gap up, and make an effort to close the gap. I would have been more concerned if it just continued a steady move up from the am, hour after hour on the 60 minute chart, with virtually no profit taking, because you would almost guarantee to have a sharp move down first thing Tues. morning.
When you close the day with an intraday chart slanting down like we did today, you're more than likely to resume the upward move the next trading day, esp. if the previous gap is not filled Tues. morning.
So those long here, I wouldn't be concerned about today's tape at all. We had expected resistance today on the weekly chart near $22, because that 20day ma has been resistance in the past.
By the way, we have some new clowns on the thread now, I think they'll be gone next week. Bottom line, the news today was amazing, the headline risk is gone, and we should gradually move up from here.
Exactly...The FDA seems to be saying to SRPT, "allow us to dot the I's and cross the T's, so we can officially sign off on this drug." "You guys have our blessing, we just would like those biopsy samples for our files." In other words, the biopsy samples are not a condition for approval, this looks to me like a done deal.
I read his "report". Favus is a desperate moron. It should be noted than no one else in the analyst investment universe agrees with him.
the street is now in the process of repricing Lannett's stock price. All technical indicators I follow are turning up. Integration issues with the acquisition will subside, and the revenue will be replaced by new clients. But I think the street may be reacting positively to the generic insulin partnership.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
the overhang on the stock was the financing, not whether or not they'll be a buyout. A buyout would just be icing on the cake. How quickly traders forget that when the IBB and most of the biotechs crashed, the narrative was built that because of market conditions, RLYP would not be able to go the banks or the capital markets. Now that overhang is gone. So the only bank in play now is my bank, where I intend to transfer more money to my brokerage account to buy as many shares as I can in the $14's or $15's.
In 16 years of trading, I've never seen this happen. A parabolic move like this is unreal. There's no way to trade this market, yet again. The market is up 600 points for the week, and 900 points in the past 4 days. Either I'm stupid, or everyone else is stupid, or both.
I think we call agree that what's really pathetic is someone who shorts a biotech with no more than about 2-$3 downside risk, vs. about $25-$30+ upside risk.
It has to be so obvious to everyone that this FDA decision is so political at this point, and not so much about saving lives, and that's sad. An accelerated approval would be nothing more than a severe blow to Farkas' ego......Farkas really needs to get over himself...
in both instances you mention, the stock was trending down, even though it was trading higher than where it is today. So in other words, the smart money was already starting to exit the stock before the press releases. It's still a couple of weeks away, but for now the stock appears to be under accumulation.
To get an interest only provision built into the deal, this explains the higher interest rate. This is exactly what everyone wanted. It's both non-dilutive and buys them time to continue to ramp up scripts while courting suitors. This is clearly a great move.
Anti pharma is a populist campaign approach, nothing more. It's all minutia. Elected officials do not come into office and immediately alter the landscape, we have a checks and balances system. Even the perception of drastically reducing drug prices is misguided.
What is happening now, is the smart money is loading up on profitable, undervalued healthcare stocks like LCI, because the broader economy and the broader markets will more than likely correct again during the summer. This is the safe place to be..., I would advise against shorting a stock that just broke out, unless you're a masochist.
You beat me to it, I was going to post something similar. I just looked back at charts for almost 10 years, and this parabolic move in 4 trading days is unprecedented. My theory, and it's a good one, is that the institutions were caught way off guard with Brexit...so they in fact collude or bribe the futures traders, the futures traders give the financial media the narrative it needs, and the shorts cover like crazy. What this does of course, is allow the investment banks and their big money clients, to get out of the market before the big swoon, which I believe like you will begin early next week.
We both know technically this move cannot be sustained....
My bet is on the leveraged Vix play (VXX), because I don't trust shorting some of these stocks, with the buyer of dips mentality still out there. This is one of my most confident calls of the year as well.
This is not a rally....It's the biggest market bubble in history, and you can blame the Fed and other central banks. They will all pay for this when the market crashes later this summer.