Hyper....you've been on these boards forever as I have....Is this #$%$ ever going to end? Isn't June-August supposed to be weak as far as "seasonals?" Seasonality is another scam excuse they use....notice they don't bring it up now, but they will in Nov-Jan.
This is not a rally....It's the biggest market bubble in history, and you can blame the Fed and other central banks. They will all pay for this when the market crashes later this summer.
I mean, are they waiting for earnings season and what companies will say about Brexit, or does anyone think it will crash sooner, or even into August? Thanks
You beat me to it, I was going to post something similar. I just looked back at charts for almost 10 years, and this parabolic move in 4 trading days is unprecedented. My theory, and it's a good one, is that the institutions were caught way off guard with Brexit...so they in fact collude or bribe the futures traders, the futures traders give the financial media the narrative it needs, and the shorts cover like crazy. What this does of course, is allow the investment banks and their big money clients, to get out of the market before the big swoon, which I believe like you will begin early next week.
We both know technically this move cannot be sustained....
My bet is on the leveraged Vix play (VXX), because I don't trust shorting some of these stocks, with the buyer of dips mentality still out there. This is one of my most confident calls of the year as well.
Chicky here's the thing....weren't we always taught when the Vix peaks at or near the highs it's time to buy stocks, and vice-versa? So with the Vix at this extremely low level, I would expect people to sell.
In 16 years of trading, I've never seen this happen. A parabolic move like this is unreal. There's no way to trade this market, yet again. The market is up 600 points for the week, and 900 points in the past 4 days. Either I'm stupid, or everyone else is stupid, or both.
Institutions must be selling to the shorts; or at least they should be. From strictly a technical perspective this move makes no sense at all.
Cramer is right, because he represents longer term investors rather than traders. Everyone with a pulse knows, or should know there was considerable technical damage in the indices, so the listeners he plays to should not buy into this two day move, instead they should get out at the higher prices.
I'm anticipating an outside reversal day tomorrow. You are correct though, the markets are rigged, primarily by the futures traders. Goldman's clients and others didn't see Brexit coming, so Goldman colludes with the futures traders, who in turn feed the narrative to the financial media, and they suck the early shorts in as well as others, until the market resumes it's short term downtrend.
This is very predictable. Most of the institutions were caught way off guard with Brexit, so now they're trying to get out with a larger gain, or less losses.
Here's how this works....they obviously collude with the futures traders, then they build a narrative around that, feed it to the financial media. and make everyone think that Brexit is a non issue. Of course they ignore the longer term effect of earnings and revenue reduced even further than before Brexit, but who cares? Same old stuff, year after year.
The party looks very much over. As much as we've debated this over the past 6 years, this time IS different. This is a black swan, no matter how the financial media tries to spin it. There's virtually nothing central banks can do, There should be some good trading opportunities going forward, but you still have to tread carefully. There's way more uncertainty out there now since the '09 recession. GL
According to the chart, WLL could head to the $7's.
Well said, although I'd argue faith in the CB's has wavered for quite some time, esp. in the US Fed. An early recession, with the profits recession as a catalyst, should certainly trump (no pun intended) the 2 year range thesis you mention.
I know you've always been a bull, but I gotta tell you.....here it comes....This time IS different. This is a move that's unprecedented in global history. They're rewriting the textbooks as I type. The uncertainty will effect the market for years; I wouldn't be surprised to see a bear market start this summer.
They're not necessarily. it's just that with a major binary event, the baby is usually thrown out with the bath water. I added to a couple of biotech stocks, that have no EU exposure. There may be some buying opportunities out there, but it may be better to see how the market goes in the coming weeks first.
Will the manipulation ever stop? Someone explain to me how this can be a good thing? They tell everyone it's good, so their clients can get out at higher prices. Anyone who doesn't believe this hasn't been trading very long. I'll weigh in....the uncertainty could last for years...In the meantime, I think a bear market and a recession is very possible.
The polls indicated Britain would vote to stay in the EU, so the market has been up huge, in advance of a confirmation of what the polls and vote will actually say. But how many times have we seen this? The short covering today was huge, pushing the markets even higher.
The Brexit vote and final decision takes the uncertainty out of the market.....but isn't that already baked into the indices? Are we no longer in a profits recession? Has China completely recovered? (spoiler alert: no) Isn't May, June, and the upcoming summer months considered negative for seasonality?
The futures may continue to climb overnight if Britain stays, however I'm betting on the classic sell the news, and I'm shorting any further strength in some specific equity names tomorrow, that have only risen because of short covering.