SRPT's news gives the patients and investors hope. So if the FDA didn't reject the drug, it appears they're taking more time to figure out a logical way to approve the drug.
As for RLYP, I think the move in either direction will reverse intraday, regardless. Does that make sense?
Here it is.....In all honestly there's absolutely no way to tell which direction this will go tomorrow. The intraday 60 minute chart looks very positive for a move up, but we all know you can throw away the charts for this stock for now. (see #SRPT).
I know this for sure....Whichever way it goes, the stock should be extremely volatile...so even if it falls on the perception of what ZS's decision means for RLYP, it could easily head right back up, and vice versa. I have a headache!
iCPT still in play tomorrow as well. The good news is we won't be halted either way. The really good news is I think we'll be in the $18's+ after the decision; Unlike others, I'm not expecting a major SP move in either direction.
As you know, SRPT is a completely different story, it's the only drug hope for survival for young boys. It's like the FDA is trying to figure out a way to approve the experimental drug, to keep the family's hopes alive. The market is reacting positively, because there was no outright rejection, and there's still hope.
As for RLYP, I'm in the camp that says the event tomorrow for ZS won't move the needle for RLYP as much as the analysts or others say it will.
there's still hope for an approval when they finish their studies. The real reaction will come when the FDA makes their final decision, even if they ask for a new trial, which I don't think they will.
I'm thinking SRPT and ICPT will probably be halted all day Thursday, because of their do or die pdufa FDA event. There's no reason to halt RLYP, I'm also thinking it's possible there's a delay in the news dissemination on the ZS decision, since ZSPH is no longer a public company, or not. For AZN shareholders, it's probably a meh event. I bring all this up because I'm expecting SP movement on RLYP before our broker news feeds realize why the stock is moving. Or, I could be way off base on this entire post....a normal situation during a clown show.
I absolutely do (look at technicals closely ahead of a watershed moment). Look at the charts of SRPT, and ICPT, both with huge FDA decisions Thursday as well. The street is telling me (on the chart) SRPT will not get their FDA approval, and ICPT probably will....but I do agree, anything can happen.
There is no issue with today's tape whatsoever, at this writing antonio. You have an intraday drift on the 60 minute 5 or 10 day chart, that's it, which is normal. We have about a 40% Fib retracement, with some expecting to close the prior gap up, but I don't think that will happen. If the 60 minute support breaks down, I'd be mildly concerned, but it has not. I should keep typing, as we're 10 cents off the lows since I started this post.
Anti pharma is a populist campaign approach, nothing more. It's all minutia. Elected officials do not come into office and immediately alter the landscape, we have a checks and balances system. Even the perception of drastically reducing drug prices is misguided.
What is happening now, is the smart money is loading up on profitable, undervalued healthcare stocks like LCI, because the broader economy and the broader markets will more than likely correct again during the summer. This is the safe place to be..., I would advise against shorting a stock that just broke out, unless you're a masochist.
I don't like today's SP action, considering the imminent pdufa this week. You'd want to see the stock continue to trend up into Thurs. but today could very well be just a shakeout, and the rest of the week it goes up.
I totally agree with your take here. This is called the "CYA" scenario, and I'm modeling a 100% chance of this happening.
We're very close to a $17 print now.....with the new efficacy results and the MS upgrade, we're extremely undervalued.....
Interesting, because all three have FDA results this week, although the SRPT and ICPT pdufa results should have more of a material effect on their respective stocks, as they're a make or break decision,
With a normal stock, the gap would have some relevance, i.e. resistance after the gap is filled....Of course, RLYP is no longer a normal stock.
Keeping it simple. Well over $16 as I type. Berens sees the handwriting on the wall. I'm in the delay camp with others here, i.e. a ZS delay, with "more information" required. I've seen that FDA movie before, and AZN won't like it. If ZSPH were still a listed stock, that news would absolutely crater the stock. This should be an interesting week for RLYP longs!
This upgrade should be on my broker's news feed, but I don't see it yet. Also I'm trying to find Beren's full report or some color on the decision...anyone have that yet?
Just....that's huge; the biggest bear on the street finally caved in.....And now with this brand new efficacy news release, Thursday's ZS decision is not as significant, in my opinion, because RLYP can easily go it alone....but I still think the arbitrage players believe RLYP will be acquired at some point.