J&J is buying time. They have what DECN wants -- money -- and the longer they can take to pay the more willing (in theory) DECN would be to take less to get the money sooner. It's all about the time value and lost opportunity costs for DECN. At this point what advantage does it serve J&J to settle now, rather than take a few more shots at a hail mary with little to nothing to lose.
I haven't checked on the NV case in a while. But I would imagine it is going as well as can be expected, these cases move slow as molasses and absent a settlement agreement there's nothing either party can really do about removing the logjam of cases in the court's docket.
Still lurking, not really much to post and I would rather not congest the message board with more drivel than is already present.
Been thinking some more about this company, as both an investment and in terms of the end game. Regarding the lawsuit, I still expect J&J to settle. These things take time, I haven't followed the case as of late but I can't imagine that DECN's attorneys are just going to let a huge contingent settlement escape for no good reason, nor can I envision J&J's attorneys advising management to fight this to the end.
I personally think there is too much bad blood between J&J and KB for any sort of long-term reconciliation (i.e. buyout), but I do think that a buyout is the preferred next step. Think about it: KB Is not getting any younger, and yet he is pushing for new product development, getting the GenUltimate back in stores and into people's homes, etc. All of this screams setting up for the long term, but if he isn't planning to stick around for the long term, what's the point?
Maybe, just maybe, the point is to create as much value now to give him the best leverage when entering discussions with potential partners. And if nobody can run the company like he can, then any potential buyer would basically need it to be a self-running ship -- as in, nobody will want to buy the company and then realize they don't know what to do. But if all the products are developed, deals have been made with manufacturers, distributors, etc...well then running the company becomes a whole lot easier for an acquiring party.
So now, the question becomes, when will this happen? My gut tells me sometime around 2018, give or take a year.
In general, court cases take a long time. I honestly haven't checked the docket recently but I'm sure everything is on track. I wouldn't worry about. For the most part DECN has a pretty solid case against J&J. The only reason the case would lose life is if, per the alleged rumors a few months back, KB decided to abort the case -- which I don't think he would do because most likely there is a provision where he would be on the hook for the contingent expenses already incurred, and even if no such provision exists with the agreement, not taking the case to trial is beyond stupid when you have egregious behavior from a plaintiff literally worth over $100B.
Thanks for the update (and to Glucose as well).
I still don't get what all the beef is over between TAUG and DECN. From my vantage point, it appears that at one point both sides explored the potential of a mutually beneficial partnership. As it turned out, the deal fell through. That happens all the time in business, in fact, more often than not partnerships don't work out for one reason or the other. Usually both sides just bid each other good luck, and go on their separate paths. Why in this instance is there talk of depositions and subpoenas and prison sentences? Why can't TAUG and DECN management simply choose to move on, and instruct all those who are a part of the behind the scenes chaos to back off? Seems to me like a lot of wasted energy on a lot of nonsense...and neither company is in a position where it can afford the luxury of wasting time and resources on such petty issues in a crazy game of he said she said...
Whatever happened to John? Does he still post here? Seems like a lot of the dissent has left the building, the message board appears to be calmer now than it was back in June when I stopped posting for a much needed summer break.
At .12, I am thinking of adding to my position.
Thanks for the tip on IGXT. Seems to have made a pretty nice run, I'll have to look into this some more. Are you still in AVXL, Chemist?
Regarding DECN, I'm excited to see what comes of the Korea deal, RetailMonster, and the mysterious "Ladybug." The only thing that has changed, in my opinion, between now and when this stock was last at .10-.15 is that we have more clarity on the J&J case. As long as KB keeps his eye on the ball and doesn't let the malcontented shareholders get under his skin, we should be in great shape moving forward.
This new Yahoo "conversations" format is awful IMO, and so I've been taking a much needed break from all things stock related. Still holding my shares, and it appears the major sell-off from earlier this summer is tapering off.
Last I was here, there was a lot of nervousness about KB bailing -- have those fears subsided and is it safe to come outside and play again? In all seriousness, it looks like all is well in the DECN world. Looking forward to bigger things ahead and of course, some sort of positive resolution to the NV case by year's end...
Once again go back and look at when I first started posting there. Unlike you, all of my trading history is visible in my Yahoo posts.
HealthSouth at March 2003: .04; I sold at $5.80. Should have held that one.
Fremont General, got in July 2008 at .10, sold at $.94,
American Airlines, got in around .40 and then loaded up around $3, sold at $27 after the merger went through.
There were others, too, Calpine, Mirant, etc, you can see those posts too. I don't hit a home run every time but I'm more than willing to wager my track record is superior to yours.
And maybe go back and look at some of my other picks. HealthSouth in March 2003, Fremont General in July 2008, American Airlines in April 2013. It's all in my post history, you can see for yourself how much I've made. Honestly, AVXL, DECN, all of these spec plays are a drop in the bucket, but that is not really important to me, or you. Shorts played the game well today and I tip my hat to them. However, the game is nowhere near over. And in this game of musical chairs, with P3 looking more and more likely, I don't want to be left out when the music stops.
No idea. Only reason there would not be a partnership is if BP is not interested, and only reason BP would not be interested is because A-273 competes with their own pipeline. I think we will get partnership news within the next 8 to 12 months. I know that seems like a long time but it goes quickly. Barring that, the company can always fall back on the LPC financing. Diluting will suck but if it gets us to P3, that is all that matters. Assuming a P3 trial costs $50M to run, that would be around 12M shares. Totally manageable even at these prices.
I used this analogy in the FB group but here it is again. A-273 is not a miracle cure, it is not going to suddenly make someone with Alzheimer's all better. Anyone who thought that is a dope and deserves what they get from this investment. That said, the drug is showing preliminary, indisputable signs of an ability to slow the progression of the disease and more importantly, keep the status quo. And while this may not help those who are mid to late stage Alzheimer's patients, it is probably very welcome news to those who have just been diagnosed.
For those of you who are familiar with Propecia, it's sort of the same. Propecia doesn't regrow hair like Minoxidil does, but Propecia is very effective at stopping further hair loss from the time you start to take the drug. Start early enough and the hair loss effects are barely noticeable. Same with A-273 apparently. Take it early enough, and there is a chance you can nip the memory loss in the bud, or at least delay its onset for a prolonged period of time.
Not sure what you're talking about. At 31 weeks it shows the drug has the potential to keep things normal. So, this would be the drug of choice prescribed for all early onset AD patients. Markets are going to do what they are going to do, but the drop in stock price does not mean the data was bad, only that traders perceived it as such