I'm confused. Iclusig was approved in Dec 2012 and was already at $23 and plummeted down to high eighteens on day of approval. It didn't explode from 8 to 25 two weeks past approval. Am I missing something?
I agree this board has exploded with nonsense, which tends to happen close to a binary event. I'm curious why you are apparently confident the pps is going to 3's. Obviously you don't think the pali results will be favorable, but *I* don't see information that would lead me to be confident that way. Sure, it may turn out that way, but I'm leaning the other direction -but no sure thing.
No reply button on your post way down below, but I wanted to comment, that I too thought "Daviscupper!" after reading some of Disco's posts. I wouldn't put it past that guy to be a similar type poster on other message boards with floods of positive, effectively convincing, posts in the same vein as he did in CLSN.
Agree with the caution in using models. In CLSN we're not sure yet if the models were way off due to assuming outcomes consistent with previous cohorts. On the conference call they said the control was about 20% better than expected, which should not have impacted the models to the extent the predicted results were from the actual results. There had to be other issues too, so it's even MORE dangerous in doing models than just potentially erroring on the control estimate.
Exactly why is it funny for people to lose their retirement money? Is that a good thing? That makes you happy? Compound that with a drug treatment that unfortunately doesn't work so it won't be able to help cancer patients, I guess it's just one great big happy day.
I didn't lose any money on CLSN, in fact I had a very good profit, so it's not sour grapes, but this site sure got overrun by cockroaches after the failed results. It's amazing how many losers there are who are giddy.
Maybe you should sift through the garbage here. I've read posts from many of those longs with their stand up reactions. What do you want? A personal phone call?
So, are you out completely? I'm surprised after all your positive posts that you'd "peel way back"
IMO we don't have enough information at this moment to provide you with an answer. I think it really depends upon the results as to how high (or low) the price will go. I'd answer your question differently if the results were 30% improvement versus 100% improvement in PFS.
I'm in the same boat tomorrow - was invited to a breakfast event which lasts for a couple of hours early Monday, then have a client meeting scheduled. I'll probably blow off the breaksfast event, even though I was invited by a referral source and I actually am interested in the topic, and reschedule my client meeting, if results come out early morning tomorrow just to be able to monitor the stock. Still, if results are extremely positive and the pop isn't what I consider large enough, I'm not selling anything, as I'd hold longer term for the results of the other studies (for example $18 -$20 would be the lowest I'd be even tempted to sell a small amount if results were 100% even though I'd be way overloaded in CLSN)
Or do I seriously stress out for a few hours later this afternoon hoping for no announcement?
A little help, please! For some posts, it shows, for example, 11 replies. However, when I click on the thread all I see is the original message. For some others, I might see a couple of replies, but not nearly close to the number listed. Is there a setting I should be revising so I can see all replies?
I'm long too, but share your concerns. Of course we're all so jittery now it doesn't take much to scare us. Not out of my holding, though. We shall see...
"I think it reasonable to assume that a fundamental movement to $10 is warranted based on the increased, albeit untapped value of the company"
I'm curious how you arrived at $10 as the value of the company if P3 is positive. Is this based upon your estimation of the discounted value of projected sales of Tdox?