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natgasinv 10 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 22, 2016 11:43 PM Member since: Jan 5, 2014
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  • Reply to

    Finding Dory is booming

    by robinfamily1818 Jun 22, 2016 5:24 PM
    natgasinv natgasinv Jun 22, 2016 11:43 PM Flag

    4th best non opening Tuesday of all time -- behind the 5th and 12th days of Star Wars Force Awakens and the 5th day of Jurassic World. So, really only two movies ahead of it on the all time list.

    Gitesh Pandya is suggesting $500 million possible domestic.

    So, obviously the jackass from BTIG is tweeting about ESPN today and how they overpaid for the Big 10 and how their skinny bundles are failing. Every time Disney does well that jerk is there to put it down.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    135 million from Finding Dory this weekend.

    by bigjohnson499 Jun 20, 2016 11:45 PM
    natgasinv natgasinv Jun 22, 2016 8:45 AM Flag

    More like $275 million by the weekend.

    By the way, The Jungle Book will struggle to reach $1 Billion like I indicated earlier. It probably needs about $60 million from Japan. Japan provided the $60 million needed for Zooopia (and then some) to cross $1 Billion. Not so sure that it can do the same for The Jungle Book. TJB has $13 million from South Korea. It doesn't look like it is possible for this to get to Zootopia's levels there. So, this will stall at $935 - 940 million until it opens in Japan.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Movie Box Offices

    by robinfamily1818 May 18, 2016 9:20 PM
    natgasinv natgasinv May 20, 2016 4:46 AM Flag

    Zootopia's chances of crossing $1 Billion was greatly increased this week based on its performance in Japan. It should end Sunday with 982-983 million.

    I don't know where you are getting the numbers for The Jungle Book. There is no guarantee that it will cross $1 Billion, let alone $1.25 Billion. Look at its weekend performance -- it made $15.7 million last week outside the US. China contributed 1.5 million to that. Now China is done. It will hardly make 7-8 million this weekend. So, we are down to weekly $10 million or less from foreign contributions. Same within the US in a week or so. It will limp along to $900 -910 million before it gets to South Korea and Japan.

    It will need big contributions from them to get to $1 Billion. By the way, it does't get to Japan for another 2 1/2 months. Here are the release dates.

    Hong Kong 26 May 2016
    South Korea 2 June 2016
    Japan 11 August 2016

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • natgasinv natgasinv May 14, 2016 3:09 PM Flag

    I don't see the Jungle Book getting any where near $1.25 Billion. At this point getting to $1 Billion will be a struggle. Don't forget the China run ended today at $151 million. $85 million short of Zootopia. India made up about $30 from the China shortfall. It still needs to make up $55. All the other countries put together might make up that deficit. In the US, TJB might make up $10-15 million more than Zootopia (340 and 355). It will still need Japan, Korea to get to $1 Billion.

    $3.3 - 3.35 Billion tops for the 3 movies together.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    CACW predictions.

    by robinfamily1818 May 6, 2016 12:32 AM
    natgasinv natgasinv May 7, 2016 9:06 PM Flag

    It might be at $700 million by this weekend.

    Foreign total was $291 million this Thursday. We could get $120 million from the rest of the world excluding China and the US.

    We get about $100-$110 million from China. It is at $69 million from Friday and Saturday. (30 and 39). It could easily add 35-40 million on Sunday.

    It could make about $180-190 in the US

    Add that all up, you get to $700-710 million after the first weekend in most countries. If you think a 2 multiplier is reasonable, then it gets to $1.4 Billion easily.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • natgasinv natgasinv May 1, 2016 11:48 AM Flag

    TJB $1 Billion is happening, as it is already at $684 million. By next weekend it will be at $800 million+. Keep in mind that 3 major markets where it could add $100 million is not open yet.

    Hong Kong 26 May 2016
    South Korea 2 June 2016
    Japan 11 August 2016

    Zootopia at $931 now. By next weekend it will be at $950+ as it could do about $10 million in Japan alone during the Golden Week. $1 Billion still a possibility.

    However, which movie gets to $1 Billion first? My guess:

    1. Captain America (will be at $600-650 million next weekend)
    2. Zootopia (if it does)
    3. TJB (may need Japan, South Korea, so may happen in June / August)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Captain America: Civil War broke opening record in South Korea, the movie opened on April 27 with an attendance of 728038 (over 90% of the market share), beating the previous record holder, also the most attended movie of all time there, Roaring Currents, (in attendance: 682701 opening 17.61m cume.).

    Avengers Age of Ultron opened with 626334, with a final attendance of 10.49m, which was around $78m at the time)
    -----------------

    From d e a d l i n e:

    The major debuts on Wednesday were in Korea and France. Korea was the No. 3 industry opening day of all time at $4.3M; only 5% behind Ultron and 323% above Captain America: The Winter Soldier. Steve Rogers and Tony Stark grabbed a Captain fantastic 91% of the market share. That’s ahead of local holdover Time Renegades and Disney’s own Zootopia which has been a huge presence in the market since way back in mid-February. The Jungle Book has yet to release in Korea. The first weekend of Ultron did $27.9M there.

    So, even with the highest ever watched opening day record, gross came in 5% below Ultron. So, currency rates makes a difference. (Which is why Japanese yen going up 4% in the last few days helps :-))

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • natgasinv natgasinv Apr 27, 2016 10:32 AM Flag

    Zootopia: 910 million (on its way to about 980-1 Billion)
    Jungle Book: About $600 million now; $700 million this weekend, on its way to $1.1 Billion (opens in August in Japan)
    Star Wars: About $740 million of its worldwide gross was in 2016.
    Finest Hours: About $60 million

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • -- Captain America and Rogue one will fight for the top spot
    -- The other three will be Finding Dory, Jungle Book and Zootopia

    They could have more in the top 10 depending on how well Alice, Dr. Strange, Pete's dragon, BFG and Moana does at the box office.

    At this point it does not look like Batman v. Superman will finish in the top 5 and it looks like it will finish well below $900 million.

    The other non Disney contenders for the top 10 would be:

    -- Fantastic beasts
    -- Suicide squad (unlikely)
    -- X-Men
    -- Independence day
    -- Deadpool

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Disney: How Many Cents Do 'Zootopia' And 'The Jungle Book' Add To Earnings?

    Walt Disney Co NYSEDIS witnessed significant action at the box office, with its talking-animals centric animations Zootopia and The Jungle Book. UBS’ Doug Mitchelson maintained a Buy rating on Walt Disney, with a price target of $116, saying that the company could beat the current expectations for 2016.

    Walt Disney’s 2016 results are expected to be boosted by Zootopia and The Jungle Book, which are now estimated to record combined box office collections of $1.86 billion, versus the prior estimate of $1.1 billion, analyst Doug Mitchelson mentioned. The EPS estimate for FY16 has been raised from $5.82 to $5.91 to reflect higher collections.
    -----------
    $1.86 Billion is too low for the two movies together. It is currently projected for 2.0 to 2.1 Billion together.

    Take that you idiot Rich Greenfield. Remind us again by how much Netflix is outperforming expectations?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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