The hedge fund value the combined comany for about $80M, that is why they are willing to put $40M for 33% of ownership. youare right about the ripoff as it only values the current CLDN for $26M.
The key is that the valuation of the combined company in next couple of years. Normally the hedge fund want to push the share price much higher and there are a couple of pipelines where they may be able to build the hypes. so it is a good news from this point of view.
Good luck for your investment.
Well, in the summer anouncement, CLDN indicates that it only has about $20-25M cash left, and the merger agreement confirm that. CLDN contribute 22% of new company, the $39.5M cash investment get 33% of the new company.
I agree that today's anoument is a good news, and there is hope that the new company may advance and worth much more than it current valuation (which is about $120M).
Well, you missed some keys in your story:
After the 2012 secondary announcement, EXEL's trading price was down to $4.85 on Aug 6th (20% drop), $4.58 on Aug 7th (6% drop) and $4.28 on Aug 8th (7%.drop).
This time (2015), after the secondary offering announcement, we only see about 1-2% price action right now. So the offering price will be more likely around $5.88...
Well, we can only speculate:
1. They don't have any offer on the table and don't expect it any time soon.
2. They need cash to pay off some of their obligations.I remember that they may have about $60M due next couple of month.
3. They need cover some expense for possible cobimetinib launch.
Our only hope is that maybe the big boy already knows and the large amount of short interest can offset some of the offering.
I have to admit that I were wrong, I did not expect that they file the secondary so quickly...
Now, as I am think about it, it may be a good idea to add more if it goes below the offering price....
It is estimated that Roche is giving away about total $800M away in 10 years for cobimentinib (with about $1B peak annual revenue). and the cabozantinib is expecting about $400M peak annual revenue.
So my guess of the takeout price is about $2B ($10 per share).
Well, I read it about 2 years ago when they announce the partnership:
1. Exelixis will get abut $100M for the approval.
2. Exelixis will get 50% of the first $200 million of US sales (decreasing to 30% of sales over $400 million).
3. Exelixis will get about 15% profit from outside the US.
Maybe just my memory is wrong?
They don't need raise any after Cobi approval, Roche's milestone payment will be enough.
LOL, not really, it is just about a revenue and profit projection. Remember it is a low float stock, and the daily volume is more than the total share outstanding. GPRO is just a trading vehicle now, there is nothing about the company itself. The market just want you to get excited (for BOTH the long and short) and then they can make money.
Does any analyst need fact to raise price target? Citi just twist its model at little bit to satisfy its client o keep the rice up.
At current price level, there I nothing about the stock fundamental, it is just a supple and demand story: someone has the mean and ability to move the GPRO stock higher. So before they are down with it, it will be this way for a while
No sure about that. at current price point, it can go either way as the hedge funds want. it is essentially just a game: Bulls make money, Bears make money, and Pigs get slaughtered.
I think you misunderstand the FED, it is the FED who want the Banks to do that, so that the stock market can be high enough to support both the economy and moral. Now the economy is recovering and FED now is stopping the money print hoping that with the economy and salary raise, the people can sustain some soft landing of a bear stock market.
I am not sure if it is a short. however I am pretty sure it is NOT a buy anyway.
1. The total market cap is about 190B, which is about 1/2 of Google, while the revenu is about 1/4 of google.
2. The revenue growth are mainly from the ad price increases (more than 100%) and I don't think they can increase their price to another 100%.
3. When they keep growing, they will need to gain market share from google etc. so they are more close to google's revenue growth rate than we expect. (which is about 20%).
While enjoying the wonderful number, the ugly will come in the future (maybe in one years)
The revenue comes from their ad price increase (100 CPM and 30% CPC), not for the user click number. The user total click number is about the same.
So they are fine right now as long as the big company is willing to pay more for their ads.
I think FB will beat the estimate in Q2 earning.
FB's ad price has inceased above 100% for CPM and about 30% CPC,so as average, its revenue will have about 60% increase, which is a easy beat for 55% estimate.
The key question is in the future, how long FB can enjoy this kind of price increase.
Some waring signs:
1. If you look at the CPM and CPC number, both the number of click-through and click-for like are flat year over year. So there is no much growth as total numbe rof clicks for all users.
2. The price of FB's CPM is about 30% lower than google's search price, and both the company's CPC price is about the same (plus or minus 10%).
So while I am sure FB will have a wonderful Q2, I am not sure the share price of FB will as impressive as the Q2 number.