There's a Seeking A. article out today titled 'King Dollar is Here To Stay'. The author does mentions values or levels of importance, but he doesn't mention the Triffin paradox and it's relationship to theory from John Maynard Keynes. As during Keynes' time, the fact that monetary policy is no longer a domestic only issue - it's international - has surfaced again. So the value of gold will see some separation from the USD and gold could rise regardless of USD value. We have just seen days where both has risen.
rebeeccaha2014, who's going to take the time to check all the other ids that you have used on this board to check for tea leaves. You been around for years and in different places with many ids. For your sake, I do hope that your trading has improved. With that, I wish you happiness.
I'm holding. Prior to my recent buy, I had only bought shares on a few occasions since the beginning of 2014. February 3, 2015 - posted. In fact, in a response to you on a different subject matter. It was an acknowledgement for a second time (without being asked) that I had bought a few shares @ 3.85. I first mention buying those shares @ 3.85 on December 12, 2014 under the tread "have yo even heard of a war" by mwalk. I said that "I'm trapped".
Two others in 2014 were swings where I gave buying and selling consensus. This is the first time that I seen you post a buy price and you posted it very late. I won't accuse you of having not posted prices, without looking at your history. I do remember you saying that you went short. In fairness, posting detailed thoughts should be all that matters.
I disagree. I believe that I posted good directional research since the beginning of 2014 ; especially timing the two largest swings of 2013 from entry to caution. Turning positive before the fed meeting last week was on research far over your few worded posts. Why would I parrot you when you don't try to write a detail constructive post. I don't have a ego strong enough to not know that I could and will be wrong from time to time. Everyone of us will be wrong from time to time. I don't like posting on a message board with a few that use multiple IDs in giving ratings.
I bought shares last Wednesday per my positive post, before the fed reporting. I haven't been posting external positive since for free mile points. 1.67 - 1.69 and I plan to hold. Futures as well. When I wanted to day trade this year or last, it usually was biotech or currencies. I have important stuff to attend to starting tomorrow, so take care.
Streude - I have a work around response. As you know the USD/CNH at present isn't characterized by any distinguishing features. Looking at the option price, it's certainly already accounted for. If we raise rates and China continue to cut their rates, then call options on the USD/CNH will no longer be inexpensive.
Many may expect that the renminbi will probably devalue against the dollar in the next two years. I expect some would consider - USD/CNH - to buy long term calls. With the TWD it depends on the fore-mention has being right.
I think that gold hit the low spot before the fed spoke. We should be going higher in the months to come as global investors see fear with purchasing powers.
The DXY should be collapsing, but it will still be considered strong by international bankers because of global liquidity placed by central banks. They will consider that Japan's money supply increased last year and that England has a higher debt to GNP than we do. The Canadians would like their currency to be a little weak as to trade with us. The euro to some investment banks is the remaining question, per their ECBs QE.
The EURJPY is at times used as a confirmation, because one can see divergences in relation to RSI. SMAs helps in spotting an indicator trend. This reflects to the USD in later detail and will pressure the dollar as one, but as a strong example. In this case, the crosses within the SMAs (2) a 5 day SMA has been used as a signal, but the indicator as been too willing to confirm. So then move to a 17 SMA to confirm as with fast under the slow SMA. The crosses are strong. Adding an oscillator and MACH doesn't show better.
If one compare and lines other non USD currency pairing and then places similar reverse values to USD pairing, then it's easy to see that the USD is setting up for a fall. These currencies reactions will continue from Friday and the fear factor will be on stage pushing gold higher.
DailyFX analysis: "Our long-term fundamental outlook calls for a broadly stronger US Dollar against its major currency counterparts. With that in mind, we are holding long via theMirror Trader US Dollar currency basket."
Smart traders on that leading site, but there's a big difference between "broadly stronger" and (my opinion) a dollar that's going to fall, but still could be considered strong to it's counterparts.
I'm waiting to short the DXY (next week). Target 1 would be -27, FIB and the next target would be -610 FIB. I see 96, then 92 for the DXY coming this summer.
Yesterday's close was 97.82. The high was 99.38. Very slight change from last Friday.
Today, at this time, 99.38 up 1.56 - 1.59%.
The 200 moving average is 87.2484 and a crash level is 72.60 (which I don't see economically for this year). Anything above 87.2484 (200 ma) is strong leading support. Anything above 79 is base even.
I see metals as having hit bottom and moving up.
I don't see the possibility of the DXY crashing to the lows of 2013 until after January of 2016. Whenever I post technical stuff I was told to keep it simple, so I don't do that anymore.
I decided to short the dollar yesterday per my last post with the start of a new thread - title Steude - were I made an opinion before the fed reporting. I went long metal futures and bought EXK. I closed my dollar related shorts and went long dollar early today. I'm still long metals. Both are up today and there's several reasons for that.
The DXY was going wild, not knowing direction, until just now, the dollar is being pressured. A few large traders just placed bets in several ways against the dollar. I'm not in currencies today. If I was, I would consider placing a small trade against the dollar.
The fed may talk concerns over low inflation, which would mean a slower time schedule for fed rate hikes. That would likely prompt dollar investors to take profits.
If the fed leaves the language the same or unchanged as we all know, then a strong rally in metals would happen and the USD would drop.
Maybe I should delete my post on a strong dollar. The wording may be confusing. Several others here have recently deleted posts where it took the whole thread down. I had posted several times in two of those threads. In this case, it would just be part of the thread. In that post, I said that the USD should remain strong. I'm not saying that it won't correct, but I am saying that the odds are - no crash for the dollar or falling under Dec 22, 2013 levels. Not for a year, then maybe so.
- take the keys away from us - All I'm saying is that there's a bunch of bruised apples on the table and because of manipulation the USD has been looked at as being somewhat eatable. The US dollar apple also has worms to the core. The USD WILL drop against other currencies. Our culture and economy is so manipulated. I, for one - am tired of wording that. Give it time and give the company time. Our day will come. I just couldn't pump 'all out' over the last eight weeks with manipulation in control. Not that anything that we say here matters. Others control the price and they don't read this board. Maybe the soon tomorrows will give up $green apples over the red ones.
The 52 week high for the US Dollar Index (DXY) is 100.39. The low is 78.91. We stand now above 99. It should be lower by June, but no one is going to take the keys away from us.
Hi Strude, As said last night, I positioned against the USD. Tonight, so far long. The COT has some reporting. Largest commercial hedger long position in AUD on record. So I plan to consider a position in FCX and maybe some HESS or CAT options.
Cgreens, read my post above stating that no chances can take effort prior to January 2016 with the SDR basket of currencies per the RMB. I agree with China cutting into value when they have their inclusion. The 2% is stated in reference to bonds, not banking interest. I didn't say anything about the timing of the feds raising rates. I left that subject alone.
In my statement per the USD, I said that it will remain strong and that it may not set new highs, but I really don't see it crashing to prior 2014 levels for sometime.
On Dec 22, 2013, I said that the dollar will bully - that means going higher. The charts shows the spike from then to now. I also said I sold EXK last year when it was over 6.
And yes, we all know that Japan made the same mistakes. And yes, gold and silver are real money. And yes, I still see a future for EXK, and I just gave my views about that. And yes anything can happen, including a great week, month or year for metals. I'm doing some pair trading now against the dollar at this late hour. LOL
Streude, doesn't it depend on which U.S.A. state is being compared per rate of corporate taxation to countries in Europe. Washington, Texas and Minnesota impose a variant of a gross receipts tax in which businesses pay tax on their gross sales rather than net profits. The combined Federal and State (adjusted tax) - U.S.A. is 39.27. Germany is 38.90, the same as Michigan. Texas is 36.00.
In many articles, cheap and natural gas is stated as the reason for the manufacturing transformation to the U.S.A. In an article about BASF, the CEO said that we're coming for cheap natural gas, but it will be a slow process as with others.