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Arch Coal Inc. Message Board

no_blinders 27 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 8, 2016 3:18 PM Member since: Jul 7, 2006
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  • no_blinders by no_blinders Aug 10, 2015 6:28 PM Flag

    Sales, Cash all nicely increasing.
    Net Income per share now 0.02 vs (0.01) previous quarter.
    Looks like a turnaround to me, I’ll be loading up tomorrow again.
    Good Luck!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • no_blinders by no_blinders Aug 10, 2015 6:30 PM Flag

    Sales, Cash all nicely increasing to new levels.
    Net Income per share now 0.02 vs (0.01) previous quarter.
    Looks like a turnaround to me, I’ll be adding more tomorrow again.
    Long and strong!
    Good Luck!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Started a new position yesterday and plan to add more Monday. I’m in.
    A buyback announcement could spark a nice short covering rally.
    Merry Christmas Longs.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Reuters Upgrades SPN to OUTPERFORM 12/19/15

    by no_blinders Dec 19, 2015 7:54 AM
    no_blinders no_blinders Jan 26, 2016 10:04 AM Flag

    It’s working for me.
    I knew the Brent 1/20/16 futures were in play with huge naked shorts out there in the energy sector, a put-to-short ratio over 3 to 1. I saw an opportunity here in sound companies like SPN IMHO.

    Here’s what I did:
    A. On 12/18/15 I invested $6,480 and bought 500 shares @ $12.96 … My objective: future dividend and call income
    B. On 12/18/15 sold 5 2/19/16 $15.00 (Covered) Calls at $4.25… Net proceeds of $2,110
    C. On 12/18/15 bought 30 2/19/16 $10.00 Puts at $.15 costing $460
    D. On 1/20/16 sold my 30 2/19/16 $10.00 Puts at $4.50 Net proceeds of $13,490 and then
    E. On 1/20/16 bought an addition 1500 shares of SPN at $8.45 cost of $12,685.

    Now own 2,000 shares with under $4,000 net-out-of-pocket or risk exposure: annual dividend at $640 16% … which I think will hold based on current put/call ratios and insider buying.
    Not writing (selling) any calls see a nice upswing in the next few quarters. I would still be buying here although the call and put spreads have severely diminished.
    Happy investing

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Willing to take a gamble just ended up buying 100K shares at $4K.
    Do your own research and don’t rely on these “talking heads” As long as this board babbles about bankruptcy, I’m in.
    Happy investing!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • This is common practice for many companies like P&G, Walmart, Costco and many others. TI would do it if I could, wouldn’t you?

    In this case SDOC, they will be earning another $22k to $24K interest by doing so; my money market now paying 1.24% with 30 day rolls on just a few $10k Jumbo accounts like SDOC holds are paying more.

    Added a few more shares on today’s opening.

    Happy speculative investing!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • “In recent days, roughly three dozen investors, including individuals and institutions spanning several countries, have disclosed ownership stakes in Oklahoma-based SandRidge Energy “

    “Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited (TSX: FFH) and FFHL Group Ltd.; New York City's Blackrock Inc. (NYSE: BLK) and Pennsylvania-based Vanguard Group Inc.; the latter two combined have more than $7 trillion in assets under management worldwide.”

    I added more on yesterday’s open at .041 that position is up 39% last weeks have doubled for me now.
    If opens a bit lower today on profit taken I’ll add more.

    IMHO there is no BK in the forceeable future, certainly not with recent Iran’s poor attempt to flood the market with stale oil.

    Happy investing!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • no_blinders by no_blinders Feb 25, 2016 11:30 AM Flag

    Bull Side:
    1 SDOC has come a long way since its near collapse in 2008. Successfully transitioned its asset base from gas to liquids and established itself as a leading operator in one of the more scalable oily plays in the U.S.
    2 SDOC operating more focused on conventional drilling opportunities instead of unconventional assets like shale.
    3 SDOC's inventory should support a decade or more of incrementally profitable growth, even at lower oil and gas prices, in part due to an aggressive hedging program.

    Bear Side:
    1 SDOC has gotten into trouble in the past resulting in more debt. Despite recent improvements in its financial position, aggressive development plans point to financial distress starting in 2017 with wide-scale restructuring likely needed by 2018 with current oil prices under $40/barrel.
    2 For all its promise, Mississippian is still in the early stages of development.
    3 SDOC's reliance on trusts stems from its overleveraged balance sheet and should be considered a form of debt that's less transparent than traditional financing.

    My Conclusion:
    1 IMHO oil prices cannot stay below $40/Bl through 2017. International Break-even was reported last year at $47/Bl Everyone selling at these prices is losing money.
    2 SDOC, IMHO, currently has enough cash reserves/assets to weather the storm another 8 to 12 month under $35/Bl. If wrong then the possibility of BK could be early 2018.
    4 IMHO, if history repeats itself and Oil prices trade in the mid $50’s again by year-end SDOC will be in an excellent position to restructure and may well be trading in the $2.00 to $3.00 plus range … or go private over $5.00 (at these prices that is pie-in-the-sky)

    My position: Long and trading 1/3 of my holdings.
    Happy investing!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • no_blinders by no_blinders Mar 4, 2016 7:51 AM Flag

    As stressed bond holders have seen recent interest in new buyers and equity performance increased over 43% (some of my recent purchases have nearly doubled) and oil market predictors see Brent settle in the mid $50 by mid spring, the worst is behind us. After SDOC’s blackout period ends mid-March (per SD’s website) we should see more clearly how long this distressed company remains on the Pink Sheets.
    The energy sector should soon be promoted to “Outperform” just coming from “Sell” to “Hold: since mid Feb.

    Most “actual” shareholders are already aware about Reuters evaluation and the 30-day blackout period recently announced. Those not aware really should be ignored … they have done no research, have no clue and therefore nothing to offer.

    It is my understanding there is a sizable naked short position which must soon unwind. It appears margin calls have already started in this sector and I’m sure with SDOC too.

    Long; now overweight in SDOC and SPN.

    Happy investing!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Give current $40 Brent pricing this sector will soon see buy backs. This should have given management ample time to line up new funding strategies and provide a more positive report next week.
    Until the self-imposed blackout period is over, on about the 15th or 16th we should “hear” from management about past results, current standing and their future projections. I expect interest payments to be funded with possibly a stock buyback announcement too.

    Four more private funds have bought back in their aggressive portfolio portion after forced to liquidate due to delisting. To me that does not suggest any sign of BK.

    Current volume and price appreciation we may soon see SDOC trading on the big board and of course that would mean well over $1.00.

    Holding a core and trading about 33%. I will go overweight again today or tomorrow.

    Happy investing!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • “Earnings will tentatively be announced Wednesday. The consensus earnings are -$0.12, with a high and low of -$0.07 and -$0.16, respectively. The mean has not changed significantly as the end of the quarter nears.

    Expected Timing: After close”

    I am holding a core position and trading 1/3
    Happy investing!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • As an investor I applaud how Management handled this rough patch for its bond holders and shareholders alike. Those who stayed the course added more or went long in the most recent down turn we will soon see our just rewards.

    The additional news releases’ supports a substantial better capital portfolio held by SandRidge Energy then I had expected; venturing to say a few BUY recommendations soon to follow.
    Being long and trading into the last few days trading cycles I plan to add more into my “Overweigh” position as I anticipate spectacular upticks in the days and weeks to come.
    For me, and a few others, we recognized the tremendous opportunity in the recent oil dip crisis

    IMHO this board unfortunately has too many posters having no clue about debt vs equity and how to take advantage. For those shareholders that understood the Income Statement and Balance Sheet also saw the tremendous opportunity here.
    Recent shorts have pretty will covered so I expect straight buyers coming in on a steady stream as “OK to accumulate”, “Outperform” and “Buy” recommendations are posted.

    IMHO see 3 stages ahead for those long.
    1. Obviously a very nice uptick, and soon be back on the Big Board.
    2. A possible buy back announcement sooner than later (those playing oil futures the last month realized huge profits as mentioned earlier)
    3. A possible takeover attempts or going private.

    Obviously all the scenarios playing out very favorably for current shareholders.
    It is good to be long and strong and happy investing!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Reuters Upgrades SPN to OUTPERFORM 12/19/15

    by no_blinders Dec 19, 2015 7:54 AM
    no_blinders no_blinders Mar 18, 2016 7:47 AM Flag

    FTR with recent developments in the Energy sector and huge Call future profits I have increased my position ins SPN and trading calls. There is no interest in Puts and the spreads are way too weak.
    I am long and plan to accumulate more.
    Happy Investing!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • no_blinders by no_blinders Mar 29, 2016 6:03 PM Flag

    The consensus of earnings were -$0.12, with a high and low of -$0.07 and -$0.16, respectively.
    Coming in at -$0.09 should give us a good boost tomorrow and continue as the 22 new wells scheduled this year.

    Happy Investing!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Report better than expected

    by no_blinders Mar 29, 2016 6:03 PM
    no_blinders no_blinders Mar 30, 2016 10:41 AM Flag

    I agree. With this mornings’ News Brief about “engaged advisors to assist with evaluation of strategic alternatives” is a positive response by management for those of us holding and trading shares.
    IMHO the 3 "alternatives which may include" but obviously not limited to:
    1. Seeking restructuring,
    2. Amendment or refinancing of debt,
    3. Reorganization under chapter 11 of the bankruptcy code.

    Item 1 and 2 will certainly be resolved before 3 is seriously considered.
    It is good to hear management’s response to these lingering questions, considering all options and not just sugarcoating the dada; after all they have more to lose than those of us holding shares.
    I do plan on adding more on near-term dips as the media begins its worst case scenario spins.
    Happy Investing!
    Holding my core and planning to add more soon!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Although a good move by management, my holding here were for Dividends and covered calls.
    Calls have just dried up; plan to park my funds else were until a correction and the dust has settled.
    Happy Investing!

    Sentiment: Sell

  • no_blinders by no_blinders Apr 4, 2016 9:44 AM Flag

    Liquidated my holdings last week in SDOC after my profit/stop was triggered at $0.095 having been long $0.041. I don’t see BK in the near future, but in-light of a lack of domestic and international oil policies IMHO there may be more continuing downward pressure. Oil needs to be over $43 for SD to get traction again. I’m raising cash. SD has weakening technicals with accelerated weakness in fundamentals. Don’t see BK near-term as some bloggers seem to spin, but also don’t see much appreciation at these levels until later this year - if any at all.

    Currently don’t see acceptable technical, profitability or valuation for me to get back in at these prices; I may at lower prices, but now I’m out.

    Happy investing!

    Sentiment: Sell

  • With yesterdays turn-around earnings surprise waited on early morning profit taking to start a new position; in under $5.30 and plan to add more every 3% correction.
    See this sector take off again as portfolios started sector rotation.

    Happy Investing.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • no_blinders no_blinders May 4, 2016 2:12 PM Flag

    Good call, I’m in too, although I started day trading a few weeks ago. Last trade was at a small loss.
    Now that new trades are under “RCB” and “HTB” restrictions it’s just a matter of time where shorts will cover either by the end of the day or first thing in the morning as margin calls finish unwinding too.

    We’ll see. Been adding more at the $4.28 level with partial fills. May need to change that later

    Happy investing to you too.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I like the timing of this sector and Samson's portfolio, realizing it's a speculation, but I like buying assets pennies on the dollar with the understanding SSN's valuation will soon be recognized.
    Happy Investing.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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