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Impac Mortgage Holdings Inc. Message Board

nolaloha 102 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 3, 2016 12:11 PM Member since: Aug 2, 2008
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  • Reply to

    Sale of CLMT North Dakota Refinery

    by nolaloha Jun 28, 2016 11:17 AM
    nolaloha nolaloha Jul 3, 2016 12:11 PM Flag

    At least, at first cut, this is positive. However it is a sale at the low point of the market, and represents poor timing Of course if you are drowning, you can't wait for a better offer. Right move in ant event. My concern is the timing of other events. There is often a tendency to have a "Clean-up quarter", getting rid of everything that does not look good. sometimes it results in things thrown away that were better kept. This is not criticism, just a caution that this whole process needs to be watched carefully.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Sale of CLMT North Dakota Refinery

    by nolaloha Jun 28, 2016 11:17 AM
    nolaloha nolaloha Jun 30, 2016 10:18 AM Flag

    Thanks for the correction. It was a rough calculation, as is yours. You do not include the incremental operating losses for the period, possible recapture of depreciation, and a bunch of factors we will actually see when they do the accounting. Since neither you not I have all the details, all that is clear i that CLUMET benefits from the input of cash and the reduction of loses and TSO benefits from getting a new refinery at rock bottom prices that fits into their existing distribution.

  • Reply to

    Sale of CLMT North Dakota Refinery

    by nolaloha Jun 28, 2016 11:17 AM
    nolaloha nolaloha Jun 29, 2016 1:51 PM Flag

    For those remarking as negative, I was just summarizing the news , with no real opinion. to amplify: The refinery cost about $460 to build, and was half owned by CLMT and half by MDU. There was about $80,000 in total debt, paid down to about $66 million. roughly, CLMT put in equity of about $180 million and cashed out for $27 million, So the net cash loss was about $150 million, though accounting wise, due to depreciation, the hit to the balance sheet will be closer to $125 million. Just rough figures, FYI. With the additional cash in, and reduction of losses, an reduction of interest, this will be a positive, roughly again, $40 million positive kick in cash flow. I just bought 100 shares to keep myself honest.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • The North Dakota Bakkan Oil Refinery of Calumet and MDU resources has been sold. This loss-producing refinery was a millstone around the Calumet Partners neck. Initially built to capture a huge margin in Diesel (that topped out at ABOUT $100/ barrel), with the fall in drilling and oil prices, the margin fell to $16 a barrel. THis is negative for the book value, but very positive for cash-flow and the bottom line.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Brexit

    by rogers2308 Jun 23, 2016 2:48 PM
    nolaloha nolaloha Jun 27, 2016 10:56 AM Flag

    There will be no direct impact of BREXIT on SDLP. Within 3 months expect to see the decreasing oil inventories to positively affect oil prices, and the stock prices of oil producers and servicers. As a note, the Saudi oil inventory is down about 40 million barrels in the past 6 months. That suggests that demand is higher than their production. Please note that it will be extremely difficult for the UK to get out of the EU. The four parliaments of the UK must agree, and that will be a near impossibility. BREXIT may never occur, at least in the present form.

  • Reply to

    Safe to buy more.

    by rogers2308 Jun 13, 2016 3:26 PM
    nolaloha nolaloha Jun 13, 2016 5:14 PM Flag

    Sorry. Absolutely no chance of a Dividend rise, though current dividend is safe. At current oil prices, more platforms nay roll off contracts and be hard to place. At least 3 more quarters at current dividends, and then only if oil prices improve..

  • nolaloha nolaloha Jun 13, 2016 7:40 AM Flag

    To me, assured value can be exemplified by a company like NAT, where the CEO has a large common stock holding, a policy of keeping debt low, a dividend policy that is clear and consistent, and is the low-cost producer in the business. The huge volatility in the stock (NAT) is due to it being a good company in a tough business.

  • Reply to

    Hard to figure

    by rogers2308 Jun 8, 2016 3:06 PM
    nolaloha nolaloha Jun 10, 2016 3:59 PM Flag

    Based on the Zacks#1 Rating, about a year ago I purchased about 10.000 SDTP at 10.0 a share. Within a month it dropped to about 5. I do not remember the exact times and dates - However the lesson to learn is that Zacks is never responsible for your gains or losses, and they are often WRONG. I have made more money buying their 3's on 4's than I have buying their #1's

  • Reply to

    Calumet (CLMT) Conference call -June 7, 2016

    by nolaloha Jun 7, 2016 11:04 AM
    nolaloha nolaloha Jun 10, 2016 10:19 AM Flag

    I am happy to sell at a profit, and also happy when someone buys from me and makes a profit. After all." No-one ever LOST money by taking a profit.

  • The recent debt for stock conversion ar SDRL is actually god news for SDLP. While that still leaves around $10 billion in SDRL debt, every debt pay off or conversion reduces risk to both organizations. Apparently the market thinks this is a NEGATIVE event, dropping the price of SDLP by about $0.40/ share in initial trading. However I think this is a POSITIVE event for SDLP. Having closed out my position yesterday at $6.07 due to increasing concern about Crude prices, I re purchased. today,re-establishing my position ahead of the weekend.

  • Reply to

    Oil Shipping Market Changes

    by nolaloha Jun 8, 2016 9:21 AM
    nolaloha nolaloha Jun 9, 2016 1:22 PM Flag

    Consider a world in which excess Gulf of Mexico crude is sent to Texas refineries and then processed crude is sent to the third largest user - India. Consider a world in which the many new and low-cost Chinese refineries send processed crude East to Europe due to unsettled conditions in the Straits of Malacca. Not saying these are actually likely to happen, but the increased potential for new routes will change the revenue streams and increase shipping choices

  • Reply to

    Oil Shipping Market Changes

    by nolaloha Jun 8, 2016 9:21 AM
    nolaloha nolaloha Jun 8, 2016 10:12 PM Flag

    All Suezmaxes are not the same, including NAT', There is some variation in MAX DRAFT AS WELL AS MAX BEAM.. In addition there is some variation in oil product density. A tanker can be fully loaded by volume but not in draft. AS I said earlier, I will need to check each of the ships to see what the load capacity is.

  • There are two major changes coming up that will affect NAY. The first is the expanding market for processed crude. Both the US and China will be shipping additional processed crude. This will result in new routs and new opportunities for NAT and other shippers. On top of this, the Saudi's have built new refineries to expand their processed crud sales..

    The second major change is the opening of the Expanded Panama Canal. Since most of the NAT ships can traverse the new Panama canal fully loaded, they can now be chartered for voyages to the West Coast of the US or to Asian ports that were previously unprofitable. Unfortunately, not all the NAT ships currently fit through the expanded Panama Canal. I will be reviewing the tonnages and sizes to get a better handle on that number.

    Both of these changes should be looked at as positively impacting the Suezmax market size.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Just read the conference presentation posted on the CLMT web site. While things are definitely moving in the right direction, the first quarter did produce a negative distributable income. Among the troubling items is the new $400 million debt issue at 11.5%. That will create a $44.5 million drag on the bottom line. With oil prices on an increasing trend (more about that later) we can expect that the next quarter will produce a sizeable inventory gain, perhaps on the order of $20 to $50 million, improving their financials, but not the cash flow.. Since the jury is still out, and I have a small gain , I decided to sell my 2000 shares. Will buy it back when the financials look better. Oil prices will be extremely volatile. When Saudi Arabia was acting as a swing producer, it could easily control oil prices by opening and shutting the oil spigot. Now that the United States is essentially acting as the swing producer, the control of production is much less precise. We are depending on individual producers to bring in ans shut down individual wells.. I am hoping that Calumet, with 14,000,000 barrels of storage capacity, will be ale to average out those swings and come out ahead. We will see.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • There is still 1.3 billion in equity, and the price of oil is rising, so should their revenues and the value of their oil assets. It is now a horse race between their payments needs and the rising revenues. There may still be value in the shares.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • The world i s not what it seems, and Saudi Arabia is no exception. Things of note:
    1. The Saudis said they had $750 billion in treasuries - They only have $120 Billion
    2. The Saudis are running short of cash - they just borrowed $10 billion
    3. The Saudis are running short of cash. They just told some contractors they would be paid in IOU instead of cash.
    4. A lot of Saudis are getting killed in their wars in Yemen and Syria. There will be unrest brewing at home.
    All of this suggests growing unrest in the Kingdom, and a really really great need to increase available cash. The price of oil will rise, either because the kingdom voluntarily reduces production, or because there are involuntary reductions. In addition, the increased instability in Saudi Arabia will also raise the prices of oil from the most reliable areas.

  • While there is about $1.3 billion in Equity, that is going to be somewhat diluted. The bond holders will want some revised terms in return for reduced interest payments. That will come out of equity. Possible in the form of Warrants convertible into common under specific conditions. Forced conversion of some or all of the preferred is also likely. That will be at some premium to the face value of the preferred of $25/unit. Just making a guess, giving Bond holders a 20% premium,will eat up $500 million of the common equity. Similarly, giving the preferred holders a 10% premium will eat up another $70 million of the equity. These transactions will result in the common shares having a value of between $0.50 and $1.00. Of course, this is just conjecture. The results could be much better or worse. So if I were placing bets, I would buy bonds and preferred, and let the common loose.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Projected Fair Value of BBEP securities

    by nolaloha May 20, 2016 1:42 PM
    nolaloha nolaloha May 20, 2016 3:42 PM Flag

    runnerin: Perhaps, or he could have been signaling that he thought the shares were worth more than $0.67?

  • Reply to

    Projected Fair Value of BBEP securities

    by nolaloha May 20, 2016 1:42 PM
    nolaloha nolaloha May 20, 2016 2:43 PM Flag

    Note that in January Hal Washburn purchased about 50,000 shares of common for about $0.67/share. At that time he should have had a pretty good idea of what the value of the company would be as they went into a structured re-organization.(Chapter 11). My interpretation of that purchase is either:
    1. Washburn is an idiot who had no idea of the value of the shares
    2. He was trying to fake-out other investors or
    3. He believes that the shares would be worth more than $0.67 after the reorganization was over.
    Since my calculated (estimated) value of the common is between $0.50 and $1.00, I think choice 3 is the real thing, and the shares will be worth on the order of $1.00

  • Reply to

    Projected Fair Value of BBEP securities

    by nolaloha May 20, 2016 1:42 PM
    nolaloha nolaloha May 20, 2016 1:58 PM Flag

    Sorry, Do not recall saying anything about paying $10/share. Can you rephrase your question?

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