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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited Message Board

not_totally_gray 75 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 11, 2016 9:01 AM Member since: May 14, 1999
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  • Reply to

    So buy 50% of KMI

    by hrdwkgdog Jul 11, 2016 12:46 AM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Jul 11, 2016 9:01 AM Flag

    I have to believe that given KMI's debt position and need to raise capital, SO is probably buying this for a good price. They can sell stock at all-time high and buy good-quality assets from a motivated seller, makes all the sense in the world.

  • Reply to

    Dividend announced

    by dipizza109 Jul 7, 2016 10:31 PM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Jul 8, 2016 8:30 AM Flag

    Should open up the stock to all sorts of funds and institutional investors that want/need to own dividend-paying stocks. At current low price, should put a floor under it.

  • not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Jul 6, 2016 3:31 PM Flag

    the way it works in the USA is that WMB needs to prove that they WERE lying, not the other way around. The unfortunate fact seems to be that there is no actual *evidence* to that effect or it would have come out by now.

  • Reply to

    Good bye Armstrng and the rest of the board

    by henderson5565 Jul 1, 2016 8:10 AM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Jul 1, 2016 11:53 AM Flag

    You're basically agreeing with me... WMB is the one suing ETE, not the other way around, it just makes it that much more easy for ETE to counter with the argument that WMB -- in contrast to their public statements -- wasn't fully committed to the merger either.

    Otherwise, of course this is positive for WMB, today's drop is certainly a buying opportunity, I would have thought it would gap up on news like this. Be very interesting to see who they nominate to fill out the board and what actions they take both before and after that.

  • Reply to

    Good bye Armstrng and the rest of the board

    by henderson5565 Jul 1, 2016 8:10 AM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Jul 1, 2016 9:55 AM Flag

    On the other hand, it doesn't bode well for their damages lawsuit against ETE... it exposes the fact that all WMB's announcements "unanimously" supporting the merger were complete fabrications -- makes it very easy for ETE to argue that the "bad faith" went both ways and for a judge to simply dismiss the whole thing, now that the deal has been cancelled anyway.

  • Reply to

    bloomberg article

    by harehau Jun 29, 2016 11:17 PM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Jun 30, 2016 10:16 PM Flag

    Bloomberg also aired an interview with CEO of Southern Co same day... he said directly that SO was interested in buying a major nat gas pipeline now that AGL deal is in the books. Have to like that... with SO stock at all-time high, an aggressive CEO who does lots of deals, complementary geographic footprint, and WMB lets them do a deal at the GP level, that would be an easy deal to close. Especially if WMB cuts div in half and stock drops into teens. SO could offer $30/shr in stock which would give each WMB shareholder $1.30 in div, would have to think WMB board would take a good long look at that if stock was $18 paying out a $1 div?

  • not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Jun 30, 2016 10:06 PM Flag

    Hi, have to disagree about inflation... inflation is a monetary phenomenon, not a pricing one -- we just tend to associate it with prices of everyday goods, but as you imply, other inputs like supply/demand/cost of production influence consumer prices. Govts are creating lots of money which will show up *somewhere* and where it is showing up is, precisely, prices of financial assets.

    "Whatever WMB yield is going forward, it will be far, far better than fixed income ... even better if there is growth to be added to the principle" Well, no... the dividend is about to be cut, and the price has dropped by 2/3 in last year or two, so comparing WMB to a 10-yr Treasury is kind of misplaced. It might ultimately do better or it might not, but it has nothing to do with "hunt for yield."

    "banks will never be good investments " As a counterpoint, I just bought some more Wells Fargo for $45/share. You will rarely go wrong owning the best bank in town, especially buying it near a 52-week low. In this supposedly terrible market for banks, they're earning 12.5% ROE, which you can buy for, what, 1.3X book? so you get about 9% return on your investment. If market/profitability improve, it's upside from there. Favorable risk-adjusted return to most MLPs, IMO.

  • Reply to


    by sxct2836 Jun 30, 2016 12:08 AM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Jun 30, 2016 8:43 AM Flag

    They clearly stated yesterday that the 0.5 cent increase in April was part of LAST YEAR's plan. This year's plan included a 55-75% payout target that obviously the Fed was OK with, which leaves a ton of room to increase dividend. I assume the BOD will discuss how much buy backs vs div, the fact that no specific div was announced yesterday means nothing, but I'm sure we'll get a 5-7% increase. A 5% increase to $0.40 qtr boosts the yield to 3.6% is an attractive buying op at current depressed share price.

  • Reply to

    Contract now worthless

    by metasea Jun 24, 2016 6:31 PM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Jun 24, 2016 7:14 PM Flag

    The 721-Latham clause was clearly written in the contract and WMB agreed to it. All Warren did was use a perfectly legal loophole to protect ETE shareholders. Was it aggressive? Sure, but that's his job.

  • Reply to

    And now the special rights issuance question

    by greydovekie Jun 24, 2016 6:47 PM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Jun 24, 2016 7:09 PM Flag

    It makes a lot of sense to offer such a plan to everyone, giving us the chance to forego cash distributions in exchange for common units at a discount. Would simply conserve a decent amount of cash for ETP's use without actually cutting the dividend. I'd sign up for it.

  • Reply to

    MLP sector value

    by harehau Jun 24, 2016 12:16 PM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Jun 24, 2016 1:47 PM Flag

    They already have a publicly traded MLP subsidiary, Dominion Midstream Partners. They could merge that into WPZ and be just like Duke / Specta and keep dropping down their other midstream assets.

  • Reply to

    Deal Going To Be Nixed

    by protazoid Jun 22, 2016 1:58 PM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Jun 23, 2016 10:16 AM Flag

    No way that would pass anti-trust regulators... KMI's Tenneco pipeline overlaps Transco, no way regulators would let one company own both.

  • Reply to

    Deal Going To Be Nixed

    by protazoid Jun 22, 2016 1:58 PM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Jun 23, 2016 10:12 AM Flag

    They already tried that... before they signed the deal with ETE, they shopped the company around and there were no takers. Maybe a PE firm might be interested in taking them out now that share price is ~$20 and take it public again in a couple of years if cash flow has improved and energy markets have recovered.

  • Reply to

    This whole thing can get worse

    by left_wing_lock Jun 23, 2016 6:13 AM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Jun 23, 2016 8:44 AM Flag

    Correct me if I'm wrong, but even if WMB wins an appeal, if it comes after June 28 and the deal hasn't closed, ETE can't be forced to complete the deal. At that point, the only point of an appeal would be monetary damages. My impression is that the June 28 deadline is a hard deadline, if it doesn't close by then everything is off. (Unless there is some way they can get a Supreme Court to rule by June 28, which seems unlikely...)
    I would think even if ETE lost an appeal, the monetary damages would be somewhere between the break-up fee specified in the merger agreement and the amount of "synergies" that WMB estimated in their latest statements.

  • Reply to

    Deal Going To Be Nixed

    by protazoid Jun 22, 2016 1:58 PM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Jun 23, 2016 8:35 AM Flag

    WMB shareholders have no reason at all to sue ETE... their own board agreed to the deal, so any damages to WMB shareholders should go to them, especially if ETE wins this suit and no misconduct on their part is proved. No one forced WMB into this deal... I suspect they did it to mask their own cash flow difficulties (which was the point of the WPZ roll-up that preceded the ETE deal) which are now out in the open, but that has nothing to do with ETE, it has a lot more to do with overpaying for Access Midstream at the top of the market.
    Although I hope the convertible deal *does* get canceled...

  • Reply to

    Hanjin Shipping

    by oddball_activist Jun 21, 2016 11:16 AM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Jun 22, 2016 9:47 AM Flag

    I assume the problem isn't Hanjin per se -- which is a small customer -- but the possibility that it is just the canary in the coal mine. What happens if a larger customer has similar distress OR if SSW reworks Hanjin's lease, wants *their* terms renegotiated also? I'm sure that accounts for the very strong tone of Wang's public comments on Hanjin.All of their customers are competitors of each other and they're all in some degree of pain in this market, so I can't imagine any of them will be pleased if one of them gets their deal reworked on better terms.

  • Reply to

    Buyout Price per SHare

    by casmiata Jun 21, 2016 10:31 AM
    not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Jun 21, 2016 9:51 PM Flag

    If the market thinks the deal will go through, WMB isn't going to rise -- ETE stock will collapse to $10 or below, that is how the large current premium will resolve itself. I hesitate to predict how low ETC stock will go once people start dumping it after the deal closes. I'm sure plenty of WMB folks will be selling their shares at a discount to prevent larger losses when ETC starts trading.

  • not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Jun 16, 2016 7:28 PM Flag

    Nope, it's all the common units. See pg 25, where WMB discusses its impact on the merger:
    "The WMB board has reviewed ETE's statement that it does not expect to make any cash distributions with respect to its common units following the close of the merger... The WMB board notes that a lack of distributions on ETE common units will lead to a lack of distributions on ETE Class E units, and therefore, on ETC common shares."

  • not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Jun 16, 2016 2:27 PM Flag

    This is copied-and-pasted directly from page 23:

    " However, ETE no longer expects to pay cash distributions with respect to its common units following the closing of the merger until the quarter ending March 31, 2018"

    This has also been discussed a million times in different forums, it's not exactly news.

  • not_totally_gray not_totally_gray Jun 15, 2016 1:21 PM Flag

    I've owned it since 2008 -- thought I'd seen everything with this stock, but obviously, what did I know...

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