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NorthStar Realty Finance Corp. Message Board

octopusink 18 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 26, 2016 8:23 PM Member since: Apr 5, 2011
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  • octopusink by octopusink Jun 26, 2016 8:23 PM Flag

    moe/regarded/harbour whichever id youre using this hour...please stop with the "management is silent" stupidity. There is absolutely nothing nrf management needs to say, especially since they are all demoted out of shot caller influence positions and no longer have ability to unilaterally do or say anything relevant to the business.

    and btw, our management (that is actually running things now) did make a 5 page post over the weekend regarding general plans and the brexit. see the colony website, chairmans corner. management DOES speak if youre willing to listen and look for it, and not just rant about nonsense.

  • Reply to

    Voting results are out

    by armando_mountlongo Jun 22, 2016 4:53 PM
    octopusink octopusink Jun 22, 2016 5:08 PM Flag

    the votes were landslides in favor of the proposals and board members. not sure why its unbelievable. the massive majority ownership of northstar isnt mom and pop investors. while i personally voted no to the directors and compensation proposals, i'm not crazy enough to think that actually had a real chance to win.

    and again, this should show you, if people think the merger will be voted down because of the tenor of a few message boards and sa articles, you are seriously delusional.

  • octopusink octopusink Jun 22, 2016 2:41 PM Flag

    yes basically both harbour and imlongnow did essentially fictionalize the mad money comments to drive their own narratives. what a surprise.

    what cramer actually said was he isnt interested in playing an arbitrage situation, so until the deal is complete he's not interested in any of the 3. and i dont blame him, in a lot of ways i agree that until 2017 there is little share price upside in the 3 names, and potential downside if something unexpected happens and the deal falls apart.

    cramer doesnt know any of the details about nrf (good or bad), its too small a stock for him to cover. he will never touch anything with high leverage or a yield over about 7%, so its pretty much always been a sell for him just on general principle. however, my most important takeaway from his brief comments was he said he loves tom barrack. because while he doesnt know anything about the fine points of nrf, he HAS interacted with barrack so his opinion on him actually has some credence. that hes very positive on him as an operator is a great thing for nrf/nsam because thats a big part of what we are getting out of the deal- new management.

  • Reply to

    individual votes don't matter

    by runday17 Jun 8, 2016 12:48 PM
    octopusink octopusink Jun 8, 2016 2:46 PM Flag

    not really sure how thats something to disagree with...its pretty obvious who the multiple ID people, new people, and spammers are and that they are about 90% negative. i guess just posting over and over again the same thing and agreeing with your other ids does something. not sure what, but its certainly not worth anyones time other than to just hit the ignore button.

  • Reply to

    individual votes don't matter

    by runday17 Jun 8, 2016 12:48 PM
    octopusink octopusink Jun 8, 2016 2:39 PM Flag

    actually is the opposite. easily a majority of the longterm contributors on the board (whether i generally agree with them or not) are supportive of the current deal. most of the negative posts are the new posters, and multiple ID guys.

  • Reply to

    Land and Buildings letter

    by dar200 Jun 6, 2016 9:25 AM
    octopusink octopusink Jun 6, 2016 11:54 AM Flag

    nschwartz- and thats pretty much been my point is all this. i'm not saying litt is correct. i'm saying that reasonable people seem to have WILDLY differing takes on the relative valuations of nrf vs nsam. and that reality is most certainly somewhere in the middle. i think that conclusion will eventually be realized once some of the raw general frustration with the recent past of the companies starts to fade.

  • Reply to

    Land and Buildings letter

    by dar200 Jun 6, 2016 9:25 AM
    octopusink octopusink Jun 6, 2016 9:38 AM Flag

    Not surprising to me, as i've said, I think a lot of this noise is people mad at not having ripped off the other entity in a deal and getting a windfall payday. Land and Buildings today claims NSAM is the one getting ripped off, that its much more valuable than NRF, and should be getting much more.

    I maintain my position that most people dont seem to have a realistic grasp on the relative values of nrf and nsam. its fine to want to fight for your "horse", but common sense that the deal has benefits for all involved parties and isnt all that bad will set in eventually.

  • Reply to

    NO, NEVER TO THIS MERGER

    by simbaassad12 Jun 4, 2016 1:07 AM
    octopusink octopusink Jun 5, 2016 3:18 PM Flag

    i'm an nrf bull as much as anyone...but nrf going "back to the 30s in no time" has got to be one of the most delusional things i've heard in a while. lol, nav is only like $20, no way its going to trade above nav.

    your premise is a new BOD and management will make the nrf assets valued at way more than current. okay, so then whats not to like about the deal?- we're getting a new BOD, and every single member of nrf and nsams current management team are either demoted to lesser roles or fired. and management is no longer external and is now aligned with shareholders. seems to me, by your logic, everything should be now much more valuable because of the deal.

  • Reply to

    my thoughts

    by octopusink Jun 3, 2016 12:52 PM
    octopusink octopusink Jun 5, 2016 3:16 PM Flag

    i still think people are wildly miscalculating the worth of nrf in relation to nsam and clny. standalone, yes nrf has more value as the management contract can be digested on yearly terms. but having to dispose of the management contract in one chunk in a merger or sale or liquidation kills about half of nrf's nav. but theres really no way around it- you arent going to realize max value in nrf unless this becomes internal again.

    i would be very surprised if the deal was voted down. there will be short term weakness in the 3 as people that were playing nrf/nsam from an "undervaluation" perspective and for the "event" are going to sell out and the 3 will move in tandem. but they will stabilize. because imo, all 3 companies are better off today than they were thursday. yes, i agree the "winner" order is 1)clny 2)nsam 3)nrf. that said, i dont see any of them as "losers", as i think all 3 benefit in this deal scenario.

  • Reply to

    my thoughts

    by octopusink Jun 3, 2016 12:52 PM
    octopusink octopusink Jun 3, 2016 6:22 PM Flag

    nrf holders get 1.09 nsam per share (9% more). so roughly 180m shares of nrf become 196m of nsam. an extra 16m shares at say $12/share = close to $200m in stock extra nrf is getting over a straight 1 for 1 deal. so even with the $128m cash payment, nrf is still being valued slightly higher than nsam overall. but my point is, yeah i think the values of nrf and nsam are roughly pretty close and how this is structured doesnt really bother me.

  • Reply to

    my thoughts

    by octopusink Jun 3, 2016 12:52 PM
    octopusink octopusink Jun 3, 2016 3:58 PM Flag

    but thats it...i just dont see nsam as having a lot less value than nrf. i'm an nrf bull, but i really think people are overstating nrf's relative "worth" in all this.

  • Reply to

    my thoughts

    by octopusink Jun 3, 2016 12:52 PM
    octopusink octopusink Jun 3, 2016 3:38 PM Flag

    also matt, i think the short term common reaction tells one story, while the nrf preferreds reaction tells another. the preferreds have long been trading at discounts even with their already high base coupon. now today for the first time in a good while they are now back trading over par, even though they arent going to be called, just transferred to the newco. that tells me preferred investors (traditionally a more conservative lot) think the future prospects of the combined company are quite good, in fact better than nrf solo.

    i really think over the past year a ton of people bought into the common on the thought of a windfall win on the undervaluation story. i also think theres a lot of selling based on the knee jerk event of today that this is a "conclusion", and the trade is over. and thats true, it is, if your a trader. if youre a long term investor though, its a different story. i'm an investor.

  • Reply to

    my thoughts

    by octopusink Jun 3, 2016 12:52 PM
    octopusink octopusink Jun 3, 2016 3:25 PM Flag

    i think you are getting fair value for your nrf shares. what do you think clny and nsam are worth? they are near as undervalued as nrf and you'd still get a similar cut of the merger pie. i'm an nrf bull, its shocking to me how many people think nrf has this huge relative worth based on NAV but that nsam or clny are only worth their current market price.

    again, this deal isnt meant as getting "top price" for ANY of the involved parties. all 3 parties could easily fully liquidate and end up with more in total cash. you are acting like this deal is an endpoint for the companies. its not. the combined still has all the same assets and all the same go forward options as they have now (yes, including liquidation)...but with a better risk and management profile. this is not a sell to the highest bidder deal, it is a restructuring.

  • Reply to

    my thoughts

    by octopusink Jun 3, 2016 12:52 PM
    octopusink octopusink Jun 3, 2016 3:00 PM Flag

    well yes, the nrf contract is about 40% or so of nsam's revenue. not really sure how to exactly value $200m a year unbreakable forever, but its worth A LOT. if i remember correctly the activist valued it at like $2b or something. thats overkill, but yeah, the contract is worth a ton.

  • Reply to

    my thoughts

    by octopusink Jun 3, 2016 12:52 PM
    octopusink octopusink Jun 3, 2016 2:09 PM Flag

    ask that same question 2 years from now, not 4 hours after the deal was agreed on. cant say it enough. long term plan.

    since the stock is down, can i ask how this deal is a bad thing for the future prospects of the combined company? so far most all i've seen on the board are nrf or nsam holders whining about not having their big payday at having screwed the other entity. is there a rational case that the combined company is a bad idea? maybe i just dont understand what people out there seem to want...

  • Reply to

    my thoughts

    by octopusink Jun 3, 2016 12:52 PM
    octopusink octopusink Jun 3, 2016 1:44 PM Flag

    yes i think this is a reasonable deal, if you understand the goal of the deal. this isnt intended to be the typical "sell to the highest bidder, maximize share price gain" that most wallstreet deals are. i own both nrf and nsam and this deal reconciles the two nicely. again, if you are one of the people looking to play one of the 2 entities against the other...you lose. nsam solo holders could easily say the same thing- that the management contact (around $200m a year unbreakable forever) is worth well more than they are getting for it.

    and as i outlined above nrf shareholders are getting a list of enormous benefits- thats in part what you are paying for with the deal. cutting nrfs debt/cap from 72% to 48% with the newco is a massive change. as is now being internally run.

    this deal isnt about maximizing immediate gratification payout. its about rebuilding the company model. the assets inside are all still the same. there is plenty of time and options to grow the valuation that over the next few years. this is a long term game.

  • octopusink by octopusink Jun 3, 2016 12:52 PM Flag

    this just seems like "sell the news" after the long build up. let the shorts have their fun while the daytraders and event traders bail out. this is all about short attention span mentality- nrf and nsam speculators loaded up betting nrf would rip off nsam or nsam would fleece nrf and there would be a big price spike on the winner at the expense of the loser. and they were all wrong in the end as bringing colony into the deal made for a reasonably equitable merger split. the losers are all the short term buyers on hope of "a magic deal" thats going to make nrf/nsam instantly valued at normal market valuations to peers. the winners are all us long term investors (holding both nrf and nsam) who arent about a stock price pop, and mostly just want to collect divs and for this to go back to being stable.

    after all, theres no rational reason ALL 3 entities should be worse in this scenario, the total pie is the same as it was yesterday. the 3 should move in tandem from now on, and seem to have settled at about the right relative exchange rate to each other. all 3 are undervalued relative to peers as is...barring any other news any further drop should be considered a buying opportunity for long term investors. 9+% yield on any of the 3.

    the northstar critics in particular have all their major gripes fixed-
    -significantly lower leverage
    -lower compensation
    -internally managed
    -new leadership
    -larger scale and renewed future growth opportunities

    the core of the assets (NAV) are the same. the earnings are the same. if the market continues to undervalue colonynorthstar at similar levels despite the fixing of all the above, then theres plenty of free cash to do a buyback in 2017. or use the cash to make new investments if the opportunities are there. or simply continue to be a stable reit and pay solid dividends. and not have all this drama. like it is with 90% of reits out there. i have plenty of patience and no plans to alter my position.

  • octopusink octopusink Jun 2, 2016 5:40 PM Flag

    thats interesting, because my people are saying a deal is imminently done. look at nrf and nsam rip after hours.

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