This is another positive step towards being able to pay back the bonds for Plaza. at the end of the process plaza should be a much smaller company with a much smaller debt load and operating assets that serve that debt, but it will take another 2 years to get there.
next steps to look for:
1 how much can they get for their Torun & Suwalki malls (I assume they should get 40-50M Eurus beyond debt as a minimum).
2 how can they develop casa radio in a faster way?
3 how fast can they move on the pipeline projects - Begrade (2 projects, 1 in construction), Timisoara (construction), Lodz (1 pending approvals, land parcel for residential).
Value of equity in all those exceeds by a lot the 190M Euro in bonds (assume NIS remains so high against Euro). the excess value is the company equity and 44.5% belongs to Elbit.
sxe owns the piplelines to and from holding's assets (gathering lines
and fractionator). holdings collect money for their services and split
it with sxe. sxe has enough capacity to grow apart, but not now.
When lng export from corpus happens, sxe's pipelines will compete
with a few others on that large opportunity (and will probably fill its
utilization usage closer to 100%) - that is part of the future gravy.
The other opportunity is that sxe has an idle fractionator of their own
that could be redone. right now there is not enough demand for it.
In a couple of years oxy's lpg (mostly propane) export plus extra
ethane usage in the area (oxy/mexichem in 2019, equistar ramping
up q2 2016 and trafigua extra lpg storage at the port) should make
corpus christi an interesting story. sxe has a niche with wet gas
and large capacity to treat, fractionate and ship in an area that is not
mont belvieu. that is big valuable over time. its very disturbing that the
pe owners are basically trading against their mlp unitholders (aka
bag holders), but the bag is still worth north of $5. close your nose and
go for the ride... its like waste managment - its stinks, but profitable.
that is my point. lets do that instead of trying to be a fear monger. I saw people
like you do it (mostly in 2009). I made money from your likes shaking the weak
hands, but I am trying to put a few words in in order to have people think
twice before selling at loss so that you and others can cover at a profit.
Your suggestions make a lot of sense, but so do maglan's ideas. anyone of them will be great. it is only a slight issue, as in finding the companies who would join in with this massive undertaking. good luck to the company and to us, its investors.
why bother with the equity when the unsecured bonds are yielding more and trading at 15c or less?
that is an indication of a problem.
they are making the right moves. in my mind elbit can pay off its own debts within 18 months. the question is what is left for the equity holders.
in order to payoff their debts, they will selloff their bucharest complex (probably 2017 towards end) and it should bring in cash of 50M euros. how much more, I am not sure. being that 2016 will be the first year that all the hotels in the complex are available for a full year of business and the Romania economy is doing well (especially affecting the casino in the complex), it should have a good EBITDA. I hope it brings in a lot more than 50M euros (remember, there will be 97M euros of mortgage against the complex).
my assumption is that the extra money from the refinancing of 97M euros will finish the Bank Hapohalim debt.
Bond H (trading in Tel Aviv) has a principle left of ~360M NIS. the $25M from the bangalore land sale plus the equity from bucharest should cover that (assuming euro will be higher against NIS in a few month) with even some potential left over.
At this point you have only 260M NIS of bond I left. assets against it will be:
Chennai land for either development or sale. worth 10M euros.
Tiberius land for hotel development (prime location, but greens are against and government can be very slow to approve). worth ~ 10M euros.
Insightec (20%) - very promising technology company with a clearer road map for a successful penetration to its prospective markets. management changed, investments made, released from GE's exclusive distribution agreements. this thing would be worth more than everything else together, but patience still needed. not for nothing, york invested $60M out of its own money in it (for ~30%). that was a distressed valuation (Insightec was in distress - running out of money).
Gamida Cell (16%) - stem cell company. will start phase 3 later in 2016 for their product nicord. has great potential.
Plaza (44%) - will be worth 30M euros.
this smells like selling out by a large shareholder. since the float is quite large , even a 3 million shares over a few days can cause that. might not be large enough for a filling, but large enough to make things look horrible to the shareholders.
bottom line: they own 62% today, they will own 58M/78M (74%) of common shares after investing $50M.
the dilution will cause all their prior shares to become worthless and their idr's will be extremely tough to
reach. they buy 13% for $50M, which is valuation of $384M. $384M/78M shares = $4.93/share.
they value the investment by its equity (equity method) value on the books...
Anyway, good luck to us.
let me give him a clue: total enterprise value to EBITDA in a company
like that is probably 10x normalized. normalized (not up cycle as the
next 5 years should be for ng and ngl in corpus christi - see increased
consumption and production) should be close to $110M.
if you have debt of $602M at year (which includes inter company
receivables to holdings of probably $40M) and ev s/b $110Mx10
equity should be $498M. there are going to be (fully diluted and using
$50M / $1.48M as additional units) 62M class A shares and preferred
/ subordinated units of about 55M, but they are worthless until
distribution resumes at $1.6 / share for a certain amount of time.
so, $1.1B - $602M = $498M. that is equity (based on my assumptions
which are a bit conservative).
if you have 62M common shares alone, its worth well over $5.
if you add the convertible / preferred, you get 117M. for that to happen,
common shares need to get paid well over $2 per share dividends.
$498M/117M = $4.25 per share. add required distribution (in order
to create the conversion) and you should get to $6 or more. again,
this is conservative.
you need to remember that this company is regarded as a suspect in Israel due to the prior ceo and majority holder. zisser have created mountains of debt and everyone lost on holding his debt. many will not own it on principle, but this is a very different company. different people and less layers of activity and complexity. good luck to them and to the company.
funny... now, do you see the difference between a yieldco and an mlp?
what management basically did here would be criminal if it was not
an mlp (fiduciary duties etc.). in an mlp the management basically
owes you nothing and , if you bother reading, they are telling you that.
why I like this play, is because the gp and the common unit holders have
the same goals - increase the share price.
they should still at that point have 50-100M NIS of cash as well.
if you look at the math, you will notice that the equity should be at that point with $4 per share of value. knowing how private equity work, they would try to float value as soon as possible, so they can move on. they do not have time to play around - their funds are limited in life span.
this is an holding company. not one thing will move it. right now, everything is moving at the right direction. pretend you lost your money and do not look for 2 years. see you then.
he saved a lot of others from being stung by the sunedison management. they have caused so many damages to global & power (mostly global).
Think about it in a different way: people invested $1.45B in terraform global ($1.38B after commissions of wall street - goldman, today's short, was one of the chief recruiters less than 12 months ago), they invested $860M in projects ($1.4B assets - $540M project debt) that will yield 10% per year (equivalent to 5% return on your money if you deduct the return of capital - equity loses value each year as dividends created), they recruit $810M of notes at 9.75% per year (why would a company full of cash need it back then? why not...) at a discount of 4-5% (effective rate is actually 10.5% to maturity if you include the discount). they make global pay $80M (which they should have paid and did until they went bk, but court can ask for the money back) of interest and they steal $231M from global's cash. after all that, they claim they deserve to own 34% of global and manage it (with trustee powers...).
global is worth probably 7+, but there were $15 per share invested to create it and much of the money disappeared (much to the wall street promoters - like at the case of Madof).
sunedison needed to be destroyed - they served no purpose but to take your money and redistribute it to the promoter's pockets.
it took me a bit of time to reach those conclusions, but when you look at the evidence, they are damning.
good luck to global and to us, its shareholders.
I worked at a business that in 2009 was in a similar situation with wells fargo (syndication manager was pnc). it took two years to find the right party to refinance with (constant flow of willing candidate banks for most of the two years).
most companies do survive the tough period, but a lot of unnecessary waste of energy happens in between.
I do believe that some fees would apply, but not as much as you think. syndication managers love those things, because its their bonus (their share of those is much higher than their actual exposure to the loan). that is legalized bribe (one more reason I would shy away from and wells managed syndication...).
The great news here is two part:
1. physical assets here are worth probably 2.5-3 times the debt (non ordinarily sale price would bring in probably 2x debt or more - hard and expensive to replicate).
2. Haynesville is becoming more active as natural gas strip allows for hedging $2.5 and Azure is at some of the best areas of the play. this is important as their mvc payments only pay for pipeline capacity. actual gas processing through their plants is very profitable (pay back for large past investment in them).
I know you love trashing, but open your mind and understand the reward and the risk here. we all know the risk (which I think is a payoff higher than today's price by a lot in case of ordinary liquidation). the bull case here is quite remarkable in the potential gain size (much higher than sxe or others in the space).
good luck to all.
yes, will make a lot of sense. local investors usually can understand a rather local story and local money managers can evaluate the math for a local producer better. hope you can recruit some money for a decent program that would increase utilization at their corporation. madalena sounds too me like its a company built for a lot more activity than its current. a good size joint venture could help a lot in that regard.
its typical lawyer games. their ebitda was much higher than $6M (their facilities were separating 40,000bbl/d
of ngl. even if they had $1.5/bbl of ebitda, they should have had $20M. they probably charged one time
things (bad receivables etc.) against their ebitda in order to justify leaving less debt on the balance sheet.