The game Mr Hedge is playing and has been playing for several years is to slowly drive the price down to squeeze out investors and to pick up cheap shares, as people give up in frustration. Then when a catalyst hits, they do the opposite and try to drive the price up and sell for a nice gain. Last year they helped run it up to 1.82 with the patent catalyst and then started this long, painful squeeze. At that last run to 1.82 they would place a last second order to INCREASE the pps, often by 5-10 cents. June was a mini-catalyst with the earnings report and the pps went to 1.28. Mr Hedge has been ruthless in driving that price back down to 1.04 yesterday. September should be another catalyst so this is his last chance to pick up shares. All investors have on their side is patience, which is DIFFICULT.
I have watched the trades daily for two years and the pattern is crystal clear. The first trade is for 1- 100 shares usually at exactly 9:30:00 EST for 1-2 cents under the last close and there are 100 share trades 5-10 minutes after any significant increase. If that doesn't work the last trade is at 4:30:00pm for a net decrease. Last night 37 shares for a grand total of $38 were traded at 4:30:00 pm to change a 2% increase to a 1% net loss for the day.
This type of trading is unfortunately very common in low volume biotech stocks. All an investor has on their side is patience and a conviction that what they see in potential will come true.
Personally as I have often said, this is my #1 investment in my IRA. By far. There is just too much going positive for the company as Mr Hedge clearly agrees. My goal is to only look monthly, but I haven't been too successful at that yet. Take care.
Ditto. You sound like another person like me who bought into this stock after activist investor George Haywood moved into this one from SRPT. Patience was the key for SRPT and for this one also. There is a very good mgmt. team and board and many catalysts for this year and beyond.
Short interest has actually held steady for the last year at around 4%. Its at the lowest point for the last year but not by that much. May 2016 was 2.1 million short shares, a year ago was 2.4 million.
The management has done some heavy insider buying, Up to $8 million if patent revenue may be due this year, the China opportunity is immense, ACST is finally under good mgmt and will report progress on the testing this year which would allow them to start their phase 3 testing etc etc. Just a boatload of catalysts coming.
I agree with Simp that the stock is being manipulated. That's very common in low volume bio stocks. The hedge company slowly forces the price down and picks up cheap sales from frustrated investors. Then when there's a catalyst they run the price up and sell their shares at a great profit. Then repeat. Patience wins for the individual investor. But it is REALLY REALLY difficult if you watch the daily pps. Good luck to all!
Royalties of $10,000,000 annually by Fiscal 2018 were estimated by analyst Doug Loe when he made Neptune his top pick in 2015. Look up Euro Pacific Canada Top Picks First Half 2015 to read the article. Actually any investor should read this to understand the investment possibilities. The quote was 'To be clear, our model assumes that Neptune’s annual royalty revenue could exceed $10M by F2018, and risk to this element of our valuation will be moderately high until a final USPTO decision is rendered'.
The final paragraph was interesting, with a $7.50 Canadian target price.
Summary & valuation. We are maintaining our BUY rating and $7.50 PT on our TOP PICK Neptune, with our valuation based on NPV and multiples of our F2018 EBITDA/EPS forecasts, all discounted at 15% and with our EV calculation incorporating FQ315 balance sheet data (adjusted cash of $34.6M, LT debt of $14.4M), to which we add value for Neptune’s 49.95% equity stake in Acasti Pharma.
Too bad there was a two year lag in progress with Acasti,
Very positive call. The presentation is on the web site if you missed the call. Overall I was impressed at the accomplishments, revenue and income gains, and future plans. The China market is especially interesting as only Canada and New Zealand can export to China and the market size and potential is larger than the US.