One of the company's 2016 objectives is to get their debt obligations staggered at fixed rates. It creates more certainty in their financial planning. A 10 year maturity is consistent with their goal and therefore is a good decision – I just wish the rate had been a bit lower.
I listened to the conference call. I don't need to know the day-to-day details. They said enough for me to buy more.
No, the stock price didn't go as high today as I expected. I think some people missed that Asia was selling off sharply overnight and the talk was that oil had peaked for the time being. One day doesn't matter. We'll go higher - for anyone willing to ride it out, imo this will pay off big.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Congrats on your big bet on PWE! Monday will be a good day. But before I start counting on $10 per share, can you (or anyone else) come up an estimate as to where the company is concerning profitability? I ask that because in the PR they mention $100 million in annual savings...and that was the company's loss last quarter.
Mirs, I appreciate your hard work to provide information, but I might have missed any price projections you had.
RE: "If PWE has an enterprise value of 6B with 500 to 700M in debt, what's the share price???" Enterprise value has the market cap in it. To answer your question, the market cap would be 5.3 billion (6 billon minus 700 million).
Presently we have a market cap of 500 million at $1/share. So that would suggest a $10+ share price. Based on your comments to not pump the stock, that doesn't seem to be what you want to suggest. What is you price target - use whatever asset sales assumption and oil price assumption that you think is reasonable. TIA.
I don't have the detailed knowledge of the company that others do, but I am long. This is the way I sum up the reason to stay long:
(1) Company is operationally profitable at current oil prices
(2) With debt payments, company is not profitable
(3) Assets far exceed debt - with asset sales, debt can be reduced to the level where the company is profitable.
The issue with the covenant violation is a manifestation of point (2). IMO the problem is the pace of getting to (3). The company has been pursuing asset sales for some time, and has had some success so far, but it's in slow motion.
They need to get this debt mess behind them once and for all. You can't run a company where every quarter you have to report on the potential for covenant violations. No one knows if oil is going to $60 next or back under $40. But with oil back at $50, the deals are there. They need to close the deals at whatever the going rate is and then tell the lenders adios.
I don't care what assets they sell. If they sell core assets, and it becomes a much smaller company in terms of assets - but is profitable - I would prefer that. I added a few shares as the price dipped into the .60s, but I thought the last conference call was a disaster. They did not articulate the clear path to resolving he covenant issue, much less give assurance that the path to profitability was in the near future.
To me the issue isn't that lenders are playing hardball - the issue for me is that the company hasn't taken care of the debt. Don't re-negotiate the debt with lenders - pay it off! With oil up so much from the lows, they should sell whatever they need to sell and get past this forever.
Where do I access AF comments? And what time zone is the 2:00 expectation?
I agree, Ortho - I believe the creditors are playing hardball. The conference call had none of the reassurances like past calls that the talks with the creditors are cordial. To avoid bk, the company might have to accept a lower price on their assets that are for sale. Either that or do a large secondary or private placement at a price close to today's lows. They will need to act relatively soon.
So things don't look great at the moment due to the debt/covenant mess. We could see the stock price go lower. But I added today nonetheless. I expect the company to pull out of this, one way or another. Once it is certain that they are going to prosper, the price will already be much higher. To buy cheap, you have to buy when the news is bad. So until we get a PR, it could be a rough ride. Good luck longs!