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The GEO Group, Inc. Message Board

owltradesdotcom 282 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 16, 2011 8:00 PM Member since: Dec 29, 2005
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  • owltradesdotcom by owltradesdotcom Aug 16, 2011 8:00 PM Flag

    Hi,

    Sure this could be a pump and dump, though the risk reward looks pretty good here.
    FUNDAMENTALS
    With a market cap of 17 million, man thats nothing. The company doesn't have a ton of debt, and no goodwill and intangibles on the balance sheet. This means at current prices, the market values the company at 17 million. This is a very low valuation and leaves lots of room for upside.

    Technicals

    See the long term 10 years chart, in 2004 this was a $10 dollar stock. See the recent chart you'll note the surge 4 weeks ago. Then after two weeks following that it drift down on low volume = smart money isn't selling. Todays reaction to sell of was a result of those who bought 4 weeks ago near the surge and decided to get out and cut their losses.

    Do your own DD and don't blindly follow someone as anyone can be wrong on one stock. However, the risk reward here looks good and I believe this stock will be a lot higher in the 3-6 month timeframe. If you are going to buy determine your risk, and only buy what you can afford to lose assuming the stock could drop in half. Then before buying decide on your stop, and then buy. This way you know where you are getting out, should the stock not do whats expected. The stock could get cut in half, however this stock could easily double or quadruple just as well. Make a plan and then be patient.

  • Reply to

    The Bullish Case for JVA

    by r_gozinya310 Jul 19, 2011 10:03 PM
    owltradesdotcom owltradesdotcom Aug 7, 2011 8:40 PM Flag

    You forgot to mention price to book, but even way more important Price to Sales. Here we see market cap is 100 million and sales should be 150-160 million in a year. Further a company of mcap 100 million can continue to grow easily for a long time. Still likely to pull back in the short term, as the market takes everything down. Soon a good time to buy.

  • owltradesdotcom owltradesdotcom Sep 16, 2010 10:58 PM Flag

    Chart looks ideal for long term entry.

    OwlTrades

  • owltradesdotcom by owltradesdotcom Apr 15, 2010 5:30 PM Flag

    The Chart at this point is not looking like one of a winner....

    Cheers

    OwlTrades

  • Reply to

    P/S and Estimate of where to from here

    by owltradesdotcom Jan 16, 2010 2:56 PM
    owltradesdotcom owltradesdotcom Jan 19, 2010 7:44 AM Flag

    It will be telling what happens today.

  • Reply to

    P/S and Estimate of where to from here

    by owltradesdotcom Jan 16, 2010 2:56 PM
    owltradesdotcom owltradesdotcom Jan 17, 2010 1:00 PM Flag

    Sorry that 125 million is to the bottom line. 3% of the 80 billion in sales would be 2.5 billion... a 5% profit on this is 125 million.

    So its not so flawed. I agree about that the sales need to come to frutiion in the longer term. This is about potential, and stocks do trade on potential outlook. Companies that report great earnings, price often goes down, while many companies not making any money increase in price over potential. For example Pharma and Technology. This change in company outlook is not yet baked in the cake.

    If we can assume 1% of that 80 billion in sales ( I don't think this is far fetched, Im sure when priceline was in its infancy many people thought few people would buy their airline tickets and book online over the internet - same for P&G products ). So 1% of 80 billion is 800 Million. 5% of 800 million is 40 Million going to the bottom line. 40 Million / 9 Million shares, so about $4 EPS. Give it a PE of 10 your at $40 per share.

    Now assuming they achieve this 1% of sales and have opportunity for growth. Lets assume 1 Billion in sales. For a growing company to trade at 1X sales or more is totally reasonable. So to go from a 40 Million market cap to 1 Billion, we are talking here about more than 20X current price of total company.

    The key questions in the longer term will be, can they grow their sales online, or will people continue to shop at Walmart. Also, can they make any money on this since they may need this to grow to achieve the economies of scale neccessary to generate a bottom line profit.

    So the key questions will be, will consumers purchase this stuff online, and can PFSW generate a profit on this.

    If they can then the potential is huge. I think we will see trading happening on this potential. Maybe we need to look at AMWAY as a comparison ?

  • Reply to

    P/S and Estimate of where to from here

    by owltradesdotcom Jan 16, 2010 2:56 PM
    owltradesdotcom owltradesdotcom Jan 17, 2010 10:10 AM Flag

    Sorry guys, there are about 9 million shares, so we'll say 10 million and not 25 million as in my original post. This company doesn't have to make any money, it will start trading on the earnings projections, and maybe they will need to start showing some success in the quarterly statements that the online sales can be achieved. I think it can. I have been buying more and more stuff online. In fact I would consider buying my toilet paper online for 6 months if they could guestimate usage, deliver it and give me a decent price. How they should set this up is like a costco, only the more you spend on household products yearly the more you save.

    with the amount of time I see others spending online, it makes it easier for this to start happening. People are becoming more confident about shopping online, and purchasing more than just books online. The # of celll phone shops has dwindled as people either buy online or at the big box store.

    Anyway with the 125 million/ 10 million shares = about $12.50 a share. So lets be even more conservative and say 1% instead of 3%,,, this then is about 4 dollars a share in earnings. Lets further drop the margin in half and you at 2 dollars a share in earnings. Well thats a $20 to $40 dollar stock. So you see the potential heere. Who would have thought priceline would be such a success !

    Don't bet the farm, buy a tiny amonut and sleep well.

    Can you imagine, P&G giving PFSW the list of customers, and signing them up online to make all their orders, ( some line of credit ). P&G is in the business of products not shipping, logistics... why not leave this up to PFSW so they can concentrate on their core business ?

    Just some food for thought.

  • owltradesdotcom by owltradesdotcom Jan 16, 2010 2:56 PM Flag

    P&G current sales 80 billion. Currently online sales account for .06%. Lets assume conservatively PFSW can get 3% of sales. 3% of 80 biillion is about 2.5 billion. Now if they achieve a 5% margin on this its 125 million in revenue. Divide this by 25 million shares and its 5 dollars a share in earnings. Give it a conservative PE of 10 and your at $50.

    Also with a conservative Price to sales of 1, Assuming 300 million current sales plus another 2.5 billion and your at 3 billion in sales. So if market cap was 3 billion versus current about 40 miiilion, your looking at almost 80X the current price. Some say pump and dump, but do they math, of what the potential is. It won't happen overnight and there will be a bumpy ride with only 10 million shares. Market maker can drop the priceBest thing to do is buy a small amount that you can sleep on and just hold for six to twelve months. Look at clw as an example. This is a big change in outlook for this company.

  • owltradesdotcom by owltradesdotcom Oct 9, 2009 11:24 AM Flag

    The turn around potential is quite large. On a price to sales basis this company is cheap. It trades at less than 1X sales and has good margins. So if the company can find a way to grow, by consistently improving the product over time, and increasing the sales channels then the potential is big. They can't grow too fast now, as it could be costly and hurt margins. So it appears that management is doing a good job. Even at todays low earnings of about a $1 a share the company might be worth $20 a share. Doubling or tripling sales and this company could eaasily get back to its former glory, as a lot of the increased sales would go to the bottom line.

  • owltradesdotcom by owltradesdotcom Sep 12, 2009 11:01 AM Flag

    CYTR owns 45% of RXI. RXI has 16 million shares. If someone wanted to accumatate a 4 million position or even two million they could not do it without moving the prioe big time. Why - because the float on RXI is only 16 million and this much buying would hugely move the price of RXI. RNAI interference is getting some exposure and looking more and more like a possible avenue for medical therapies. So, the more likely scenario is that RXI is the reason for this volume.

    If you want simple common insight like this, often for free, then see owltrades.

  • owltradesdotcom by owltradesdotcom Apr 14, 2009 6:09 PM Flag

    Orbitz market cap is $120 million. I don't see why EXPE or PCLN doesn't take over OWW. They could easily buy Orbitz. Orbitz is a great site for booking travel and is international, whereas PCLN is just in the US. I think if Orbitz can hang on and get more market share, then the price of the shares has to move upward.

    Cheers

    OwlTrades

  • owltradesdotcom owltradesdotcom Apr 7, 2009 9:16 PM Flag

    Maybe,

    But the stock trades at 1X sales and has good margins and growth. Chinese internet gaming stocks are just heating up as the growth is coming online. So from a valuation standpoint longer term, it looks like an extreme value. Using simple overbought and oversold levels will burn your hiney, ... if it was that easy we would all be rich.

    Goodluck

    OwlTrades

  • owltradesdotcom by owltradesdotcom Sep 2, 2008 8:17 PM Flag

    Looks like the spammers have taken over the yahoo message boards. When I did this they cut me off. Looks like they found a way to stymie yahoo. I like google finance much better now. The only thing missing from google finance is the earnings estimates.

  • owltradesdotcom by owltradesdotcom Sep 2, 2008 4:30 PM Flag

    Intersting,

    The book is value is 32, Price to sales is less than 1.5. PE 5 and forward PE is 9.

    2009 Earnings estimates per share 8.59. Company has a 5 year history of growing revenue with good margins.

    Upside potential is buyout, or increase in price of Gas.

    Its trading near support, so probably a good time to buy a few shares for the longer term.

    Any naysayers ?

  • owltradesdotcom by owltradesdotcom Aug 25, 2008 5:30 PM Flag

    ISRG has a price to sales of 15X ... sales approvimately 800 Million. Stock trades at about 15X sales.

    SQNM potential ... if SQNM obtains the 3 billion to 8 billion in sales of the one diagnostic test then we have a lot of $$$

    For example 3 Billion sales and current market capitilization is 1.25 billion therefore based on current numbers the price to sales would be .41 and anything under 1 is considered a good investment. Lets assume 3 billion in sales and we trade at just 8X sales ( instead of 15 for ISRG ) 8X 3 Billion is 24 billion. Based on current market capitilization 1.25 Billion we could see a rise in market cap of 19.2X and a stock rise at least half of this 10X. So if we see the test successful and adopted ... we could see 10X our money in 3-4 years. Further, this is only for the one diagnostic valueing little else of the business or its pipeline.

    Probably a gamble worth taking for a small percentage of ones portfolio. There is always risk - Possibility of competition - buyout - poor execution - failure of bigger diagnostic test.

    Is my logic wrong here, please only analytical responses.

    Thanks

  • Reply to

    What is the exact reason why price-line fell?

    by bobbypicmusic Aug 5, 2008 11:09 PM
    owltradesdotcom owltradesdotcom Aug 6, 2008 6:21 AM Flag

    More sellers that buyers. Probably some hedge fund looked at the chart and thought it was an excellent time to exit.

  • owltradesdotcom by owltradesdotcom Aug 6, 2008 6:06 AM Flag

    Allow the buyers to run this up, to 170-180 or so, then based on the volume and chart when buying gets tired, then its time to go short. Chart says there is a high probability institutional buyers are not continuing to buy. Highly likely this will do what others stocks have done at this juncture. For example, priceline. Most of the buyers here do not know how to read a chart, that might include hedge fund and institutional buyers.

  • Reply to

    Low Volume SHAKE OUT!

    by aaplpiper_owns_dimkap Aug 4, 2008 3:35 PM
    owltradesdotcom owltradesdotcom Aug 4, 2008 5:23 PM Flag

    "So why should anyone listen to you! "

    Don't listen to me. I am only commenting on the short term probability. I could be wrong.

    It could just be the market, but the Aaple looks over ripe and ready to fall off the tree. Just as your rantings about better and better quarters - the market is not insatiable for I=phones, at some point the sales growth will stabilize or even decline. When the company growth slows, everything changes. This happens with all Fad products. There is a cycle and the market is forward looking. Look at Nutrisystem, near the top, investors thought the stock was invincible. However, there is a point in which it becomes harder and more costly to maintain and grow customers.

    This is just my opinion - nothing more. Time will tell.

    Im not saying listen to me. I am saying listen to the chart, its telling us all something. Tell me if you see a stage three chart in AAPL ?

GEO
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