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aTyr Pharma Inc. Message Board

patworth123 31 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 12, 2016 1:35 PM Member since: Oct 20, 2009
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  • Reply to

    Ced...what do you make of this high volume ??

    by bmcgoo_03 Jul 12, 2016 10:20 AM
    patworth123 patworth123 Jul 12, 2016 1:35 PM Flag

    I agree the volume isn't outstanding, and unlikely you are looking at institutional investing since you're still below that $5 threshold usually prohibitive for funds to start sniffing around too much, but what you do have is an announcement that Dr. Cuillerot from Merk/Serono and BMY experience entering the fold. Any time a scientist with those kinds of credentials steps into the picture there is a validation of the science and the path of a fledgling biotech because as smart as we may be as investors, he knows the science and its potential from the inside. Commitment of time and treasure (experience/education etc) speaks volumes to the potential market and effectiveness of treatments being developed. IMHO

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    go figure

    by vonaboy Jul 6, 2016 3:54 PM
    patworth123 patworth123 Jul 11, 2016 3:12 PM Flag

    First, it did get a bit lofty (why I sold most of my position) then It began trending down with some weaker than expected earnings. Actual revenue declined but the actual earnings went up. Then there has been the news about government controls on anti-bacterials in protein production and one of its swine anti-bacterial additives uses/safety was questioned by the FDA, so again down. It has been cleared and is still for sale and widely used. That all said, the use of antibacterials in for the health of animals will go on- perhaps to a lesser degree, but when a farmer has an infection in an animal in a herd, he still is likely to treat the whole herd to prevent spreading. As far as feed supplements, this is a big industry- probably here the biggest competitor may be ADM. But it is a fragmented industry with some things coming from chemical companies, some from pharmaceuticals, and others from non-public companies. All that into consideration I think PAHC is now undervalued and perhaps a target since it does have proprietary products that are widely used and distribution is expanding. Coverage on the company is pretty small and some firms have dropped their coverage again putting downward pressure on it. I continue to watch and hold it as it gets into the next earnings reports end of august. With a p/e hovering at 10 and P/S about 1 it seems pretty cheap and if they can turn the revenue positive I think you may see it move up closer to $30. Again, consolidation is also a consideration.

  • Reply to

    go figure

    by vonaboy Jul 6, 2016 3:54 PM
    patworth123 patworth123 Jul 11, 2016 1:53 PM Flag

    Von- Take a look at PAHC. It doesn't have the growth numbers as Heska, but hammered of late. I owned a bunch, had a good run up, sold some and still holding a bit as its moving up again. Consolidation enhances distribution and reduces costs while expanding market presence, and yes these do fly low.

  • Reply to

    go figure

    by vonaboy Jul 6, 2016 3:54 PM
    patworth123 patworth123 Jul 9, 2016 2:57 PM Flag

    I think there may be something here you are missing. Merck is enlarging its animal care division. It has made 2 significant acquisitions of late and both are easily within a price point that makes me curious as to the possible intent to acquire here, too. HSKA is almost debt free with great growth and products that enhance any animal health division of a larger company. Insider selling may be just some program trading or funds for whatever an insider requires and doesn't necessarily reflect potential appreciation or impending acquisition. I hate buying or speculating much on this likelihood, but it could be material to the stock price inching up as it has. Their recent purchase of Harrisvaccine and Vallee strengthens this division at Merck. ZTS - a competitor on many levels was a subsidiary of Pfizer, and is now a stand-alone company. Merck could be building to build or building to create a spin-off of its own. Regardless, it is a growing industry with fewer and fewer stand alone players through acquisition.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    pSivida And Pending Partnerships

    by mickmack50 Jul 6, 2016 10:29 AM
    patworth123 patworth123 Jul 6, 2016 5:01 PM Flag

    I've seen this languish happen before. Transport of molecules across barriers from skin to capillaries, into tumors, organs, etc. is important but the actual determination of best application can take time. Look at patch delivery of drugs. The technology was available long before companies adopted it and now its reaching an amazing level of use for everything from pain and hormone control, to side effects from chemo and even the chemo itself.

  • Reply to

    pSivida And Pending Partnerships

    by mickmack50 Jul 6, 2016 10:29 AM
    patworth123 patworth123 Jul 6, 2016 11:23 AM Flag

    This is the kind of investment you do with funds you won't need for years in a position large enough to create a substantial change in wealth. Persistence and patience is on our side at this point with potentials in many markets and for big pharmaceutical companies to tap into with existing treatments. Mick's top 4 are important, and we should also remember partnerships are not necessarily exclusive. There could easily be more than one partner on a "delivery" system indicated for a range of treatments. The cool aspect of delivery systems is that once they are proven effective and safe and begin being used for one indication..say knee, what's stopping elbows, ankles, and even vital organs from becoming targets.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Looking for an entry for next leg up.

    by asymiom Jul 5, 2016 11:13 AM
    patworth123 patworth123 Jul 6, 2016 11:12 AM Flag

    I think about now. The downside risk is maybe 10-20 cents and once it starts moving up, and if its a sharp move you may never see $3 or sub $3 again. Then close your eyes to it for a while. I wouldn't bet the farm or even just the back 40, but take a position large enough to make a dent.

  • Reply to

    Looking for an entry for next leg up.

    by asymiom Jul 5, 2016 11:13 AM
    patworth123 patworth123 Jul 5, 2016 2:21 PM Flag

    tomorrow..you might see a small trading dip but if you wait too long you will inevitably miss out. I've held a long time, and as with other great results in biotech its better not to be a trader. If you do your homework and find the ones doing compelling research with big possible markets, at some point wither they fly or a big bird swoops in and treats them like snack food. Both benefit the patient.

  • patworth123 patworth123 Jul 1, 2016 1:46 PM Flag

    With the Biotech index down so much over the past few months I think your seeing money coming into the funds holding biotech stocks and perhaps some of this volume has to do with some of these funds getting back in. Money into those funds means money they want to put to work- for the better. It may not just be specific news here (although I hope it is) just the consensus that mergers are afoot.

  • Reply to

    Working its way toward 9.40

    by rick60930 Jun 7, 2016 12:41 PM
    patworth123 patworth123 Jun 7, 2016 6:42 PM Flag

    seems like an arbitrary amount..what makes $9.40 on this biotech stock more compelling than it would be at $9.25. If you're going to make a statement, perhaps giving it some foundation would give it definition. I don't believe in charting price points on the upside since I have yet to see a successful biotech follow a careful pattern, but if that is your guide at least share it and if your throwing out random numbers just to say something, then that is fine, too I can put you on ignore. Yes good news will drive it and meh gave a nice list.

  • Reply to

    What a move......expect news!!!!

    by mjh194353 Jun 7, 2016 9:35 AM
    patworth123 patworth123 Jun 7, 2016 10:26 AM Flag

    Me too. Adding here as well. I am holding all my CEMI though.

  • patworth123 patworth123 Jun 6, 2016 4:30 PM Flag

    This is a good message for day traders and impatient buyers of biotech stocks.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Zika article with US stats

    by patworth123 May 29, 2016 10:55 AM
    patworth123 patworth123 May 31, 2016 5:34 PM Flag

    Needless to say the research around Zika is moving rapidly. Recent article published in medical journals seem to feel the infection rate is somewhere around 13%- but these numbers could be pretty far off because many are infected without symptoms. There is documentation of severe microcephaly in infants who were likely infected as late as 14-17 weeks gestation. The incubation period is likely a couple of days, and symptoms up to a week, and then gradual clearing of the virus. It doesn't stay in the body likely for more than a few weeks (based on the most recent findings and why the WHO is saying 8 weeks of safe sex). The problem is that microcephaly is very evident at birth but other neuro/ nerve disorders may appear later- so the negative effects of infection for a fetus may not really be well known yet. Brain development has many stages and the impact at each could be different. Also, lets not forget Guillain- Barre which is an auto immune disorder and can be lethal and stays with a person...so if a person get through a crisis and is treated it doesn't mean it won't recur. The WHO is very concerned about the spread related to the upcoming Olympics. That story is yet to be told. I've treated patients with GB. Imagine waking up one morning, trying to get out of bed and finding your legs won't support you and gradually over the next 24-48 hours more and more muscles just stop working. In severe cases this progresses to the respiratory muscles and you can't even breathe on your own- awake alert paralyzed. Blink once for yes and twice for no.

  • Reply to

    Zika article with US stats

    by patworth123 May 29, 2016 10:55 AM
    patworth123 patworth123 May 31, 2016 4:04 PM Flag

    Thanks Mo, CERS is very interesting. There is a lot to consider with Zika, and WHO just announced an 8 week recommendation on safe sex when returning from infected areas prior to conception. There are many unknowns here. Neural development is one of the first and fastest organs of the fetus to develop- even before pregnancy can be confirmed (which is why women trying to get pregnant are often recommended to stop smoking/drinking/drugs before even trying to conceive since all can affect even the earliest development) and microcephaly has ranges of severity as with many other congenital and otherwise developmentally influenced conditions. My guess is the first trimester would be the worst. Then there is also the unknown as to how long does it really take in any one individual to reduce the viral load to below a critical point (one reason the WHO is making the recommendation) and then there is also the fact that an infected person may not "feel sick". Scary for sure and as we acknowledge transmission for sure is more likely around infected mosquitos, the mere fact that is is not the only method and likely to be dynamic is a cautionary tale.

  • Reply to

    VRX up 2% on the TSE today

    by kontente May 30, 2016 11:26 AM
    patworth123 patworth123 May 30, 2016 11:50 AM Flag

    It fluctuated on Friday and although off its high for the day still closed up over 5%, so I'm not sure where you get your closed down version. The day traders will push it down at the end of the day and before the long weekend to take their profits, regardless it is well off its recent low and the trend is currently our friend. And Thanks Kon for the note about Canada.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Waiting on Zika approval

    by sonomaca May 28, 2016 10:26 AM
    patworth123 patworth123 May 29, 2016 5:21 PM Flag

    You all need to read the article I posted earlier..its not just about mosquitos anymore if it is also sexually transmitted then there is a whole new game in the making;
    This is a bit unnerving, but indicative of how important testing is;
    http://time.com/4343056/pregnant-women-united-states-zika/?xid=newsletter-brief

  • patworth123 by patworth123 May 29, 2016 10:55 AM Flag

    This is a bit unnerving, but indicative of how important testing is;
    http://time.com/4343056/pregnant-women-united-states-zika/?xid=newsletter-brief

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    forget ASCO

    by kajalnp May 27, 2016 3:38 PM
    patworth123 patworth123 May 27, 2016 8:23 PM Flag

    Clever find. Thank you.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    volume

    by patworth123 May 13, 2016 12:27 PM
    patworth123 patworth123 May 13, 2016 1:08 PM Flag

    Keep dreaming, it works for me. I'm in it for the long term with a pretty big block over several accounts, and even if it drifts back into the $7's if the market has another pull back and fear moves some to the sidelines it will just create an opportunity for big block buyers to accumulate. Insiders are holding tightly to the shares they have so far. If this mentality persists, its a clear indication to me they know the value of their shares will continue to increase. The trend is our friend. Sweet dreams, Rick.

  • patworth123 by patworth123 May 13, 2016 12:27 PM Flag

    Perhaps today we are seeing a fund or 2 moving into position.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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