Hey all, I'm doing some DD on this company. Just wondering if the earnings they reported were better or worse than investors here expected. What's the stock likely to do in the short term based on these earnings?
DEPO has over $3.00 a share in cold hard cash. You're speaking nonsense. I'm out, however, hoping to get back in around 8.50. CP leaving is a big deal, but I still like the prospects of this company and I doubt a new CEO will destroy much if any of the earnings power of this company.
I agree that the low volume knocked the price down, but there simply is no short interest in this stock. 6,000 shares were short last time I checked. Pushing it down were day-traders who bought after the stock had shot up and realized nobody would buy their shares at a decent price. Low volume stocks suck. You can't make a profit on them without waiting forever. I don't think you'll see $5 any time soon. Too many day-traders still hoping to dump in the high 4's.
This stock is too random. Up 70% one day, down 70% the next week, all on no relevant news at all. Now it goes up 13% in one day. Why would anyone buy more here when there has been no news and seeing what happened last time? I don't see anything bad on the horizon, but there are just too many good companies out there which don't trade so wacky. I'm out.
Problem with that logic is: nobody is really selling shares either. If there was a substantial short player in this stock, it would also be impossible to cover without shooting the price through the roof. Simply not enough shares in the float for this stock to act rationally on either the long or the short side. And the lack of PR will tend to favor the short side. Way oversold here IMO.
Nobody is shorting this stock. Tons of volume above 6 dollars and tiny volume all the way down here. Simply no more buyers to keep the price up and one or two fearful sellers knock the price down tremendously. Whoever bought those millions of shares in the 6's couldn't sell 100k of them without knocking the price down a couple dollars and losing money. That's what happens when you buy a stock that doesn't trade with much volume. However, I think they bought it for good reason. Time will tell.
It was already priced into the stock. It was considered common knowledge (and I personally called it, though off a tiny bit) the ABT would bail and pay DEPO a big settlement (my guess was 50M and they got 40M). DriveGT also knew a bit about Abbott's restructuring of Solvay and said that Abbott couldn't market it since they dumped all Solvay's applicable staff. If anything, this is a 100M windfall for DEPO. They have an approved, certified-superior drug with certain orphan drug status and 100M dollars in the bank. Abbott has the opposite: 100M off their balance sheet and no rights to Gralise. Who won? That's a tough one. Duh...
It remains to be seen what the price will do short term, but I'd take a hint from the huge accumulation by funds recently. It has been partially offset by short interest, but that only ads kindling for the next leg up.
If you check the reports of why Serada failed its last round of tests, you'll see that it failed because they were too aggressive in their testing model. They have practically eliminated all the factors that caused last round to fail and are basically doing the same tests without the same failure possibilities. The only thing shareholders have to worry about is inconsistent results. If the results are the same as last time's failed results, the drug will be approved. There is a huge market for safe treatment of hot flashes and you'd be a fool to think that approval wouldn't double the share price. Anticipation alone near the end of the year will push us to $15 in my opinion.
So it's common knowledge that DEPO's share price is so deflated because of uncertainty around their future revenue sources (Gralise, Serada, Parkinson's drug, and even Glumetza). Now I mean to prove that the uncertainty is not nearly as uncertain as investors seem to think. Firstly, cash, as of the end of this month, will stand at approximately 160M. This is almost exactly one third or 33.33% of the current market cap or $3.00 per share. Now we can clearly see that DEPO could not possibly trade below $5.00 per share like some shorts claim. Minus cash, the market cap is 320M. This is the number that investors value Depomed at. Now, how to value Depomed taking uncertainty into account. The Serada trials, using the previous failed trials are projected to have a 70% to 80% chance of success. In Pelzel's own words, the Gralise orphan drug status will be "easy" to obtain. In fact, he spoke of it very dismissively in one CC. Based on that, I'd give it a 90% chance of success. The Parkinson's drug had positive results but it is still early, so let's give them 50-50 odds. Glumetza is projected to make 15M or so net per year. With all these high-percentage chances for success, it makes little sense to have any sort of medium to long term bearish view whatsover. If one fails, the other 3 have huge potential and are worth many times more than the 320M they are valued at today. I, of course left out Acuform itself and any new developements as well as relativerly minor revenue streams. Anyone have anything else to add? I tried to make my statistics based on published articles, but do not have them in front of me. If I made a mistake, please correct me.
It's a crap shoot until the next conference or press release. The portion of the float available to trade is tiny right now. That can make things move fast in either direction, but the outlook is extremely positive, so I'd bet long on my trades if I were you. I think accumulation has started again.
Yeah, good for you, but you lose any credibility you might have by boasting about your trades on a yahoo message board. At least you had the balls to make such a risky put. But that doesn't make you smart and neither do big wins. Options are gambling, simple as that. You don't have to be good to win. Being good might help, but being lucky is all you really need.
Well, that put-buyer that brazenly said he bought 400 puts lost his bet and said he'd buy April puts as well. I wonder if he's stupid enough... Send me another screen shot LOL