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CIFC LLC Message Board

pembroke31 235 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 6, 2016 1:43 PM Member since: May 9, 2001
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  • Reply to

    June 8 deadline.

    by pembroke31 Jun 3, 2016 11:38 PM
    pembroke31 pembroke31 Jun 6, 2016 1:43 PM Flag

    It's surprising how quiet the stock is. You would think something would have leaked re their plans, good or bad.

  • Reply to

    June 8 deadline.

    by pembroke31 Jun 3, 2016 11:38 PM
    pembroke31 pembroke31 Jun 6, 2016 1:11 PM Flag

    Sale of ships makes the most sense. there is an active market and ship prices have risen in the past few months. Also, reducing the size of the fleet will reduce cash burn. An equity raise, on the other hand would be massively dilutive. And why sell stock at $.50/share, or something equivalent, when the NAV is around $3? Still, with these guys, you never know.

  • pembroke31 by pembroke31 Jun 3, 2016 11:38 PM Flag

    Any guesses as to what happens on June 8? Equity raise or ship sales?

  • Some one is intentionally trying to keep the stock price down. The only explanation that makes sense is that Genco would like to see as low a price as possible prior to making a bid for the company, and they are in some way orchestrating the price pressure. I think this price manipulation presages a bid, maybe in the next week or so?

  • The stock spiked up 3 times on heavy volume and each time somebody pushed it back down. Almost as if someone is buying in anticipation of the long-awaited offer from Genco, while Genco, or their agents, are working to keep the price down so any offer looks more reasonable. Probably just my over-active imagination, but could we see an offer soon?

  • pembroke31 by pembroke31 Nov 12, 2014 11:40 AM Flag

    I guess we now know who the massive seller in ACCO has been. With the filing of the quarterly holdings reports, Fidelity disclosed that it sold 9.7MM shares last quarter and it presumably sold its remaining 2MM shares in October. With Fidelity out of the way, and with the strong earnings reports of the last two quarters, it is no wonder the stock would begin to lift.
    Congratulations to ACCO for initiating a share buyback program and taking advantage of the share overhang. My guess is that they bought 5MM shares or so at an average price of around $7.50. Just a guess.

  • Reply to

    What is going on with this stock?

    by mathes55 Sep 12, 2014 12:15 PM
    pembroke31 pembroke31 Sep 12, 2014 2:29 PM Flag

    Probably the tail end of a sell order that's been going on for a few days. As the seller gets close to finishing the order, he is likely to get more aggressive, if only to finish the trade. Also he doesn't need to protect what had been a larger position. Stock will bounce back when the seller is out of the way.

  • pembroke31 by pembroke31 Aug 18, 2014 12:01 PM Flag

    The shorts are in trouble. How do you cover a 16 million share short position when the stock jumps 4% on volume of 200K shares? Its their own fault. Anyone who would short a stock with a 20% free cash flow yield is asking for trouble.

  • Reply to

    Victor Koshla and GNK

    by bloodysheepbath Apr 2, 2014 1:03 PM
    pembroke31 pembroke31 Apr 2, 2014 7:51 PM Flag

    That position does not give him any leverage, especially since you seem to believe it is worthless. It is certainly not a controlling stake. His 10% stake gives him no leverage in the talks that have already been ongoing for several months. And it is laughable to suggest that he, as a minority equity holder, has the ability to take the company into BK. I think management and the creditors would find your position ridiculous.
    I think raging bull has the correct take on this. Based on my experience (I have seen this movie before) the equity will be worth $1.50-$3.00 in the reorganization. That is the bet Koshla is making.

  • Reply to

    Victor Koshla and GNK

    by bloodysheepbath Apr 2, 2014 1:03 PM
    pembroke31 pembroke31 Apr 2, 2014 3:26 PM Flag

    "Shareholders will be ZEROED out." "Khosla buying shares now is cheap and gives him leverage for long term gains." Say what? Do you read what you write? Why would Khosla buy shares that will have no value? How does owning worthless stock give him leverage? Your post is nonsensical.

  • Reply to

    BK filing today?

    by jim_pond88 Mar 31, 2014 4:07 PM
    pembroke31 pembroke31 Apr 1, 2014 10:40 AM Flag

    Good post. You are one of the few people on this board who seems to know what he is talking about. I would take 5-8%.

  • Reply to

    BK filing today?

    by jim_pond88 Mar 31, 2014 4:07 PM
    pembroke31 pembroke31 Mar 31, 2014 5:23 PM Flag

    There it is. I guess we have until tomorrow at midnight.

  • Reply to

    BK filing today?

    by jim_pond88 Mar 31, 2014 4:07 PM
    pembroke31 pembroke31 Mar 31, 2014 4:57 PM Flag

    The debt repayments were accelerated since they blew the covenants. That is the problem they are facing and the reason for the BK filing.

  • Reply to

    BK filing today?

    by jim_pond88 Mar 31, 2014 4:07 PM
    pembroke31 pembroke31 Mar 31, 2014 4:38 PM Flag

    I may be wrong, but don't they have a debt payment due today or tomorrow, in which case they need to make some sort of announcement.

  • Reply to

    BK filing today?

    by jim_pond88 Mar 31, 2014 4:07 PM
    pembroke31 pembroke31 Mar 31, 2014 4:18 PM Flag

    Don't know about the timing, but I think the likelihood is that they file a prepackaged BK soon. But I also assume that the shareholders will get to keep a share of the equity. Depending on the details, the stock could go up on the news (or down, although I am guessing up).

  • pembroke31 pembroke31 Mar 31, 2014 10:43 AM Flag

    I'm sure bidders have already been solicited. In fact, I think we have to assume that GNK has put together a prepackaged BK and they are out soliciting approval from creditors. With so many parties involved, word of the plan is undoubtedly leaking out. With the stock going up, the most likely conclusion is that the plan treats the shareholders fairly well.

  • Reply to

    Someone wants to keep GNK's stock price down.

    by pembroke31 Mar 5, 2014 11:53 AM
    pembroke31 pembroke31 Mar 6, 2014 7:16 AM Flag

    I was more concerned with the pattern of selling.You don't need big volume to periodically hit the stock and drive it down a dime, and then step away. But maybe that's just me being paranoid.

  • I think the debt holders are working hard to keep GNK's stock price down, hoping to get a better conversion price or warrant pricing in the reorg. Clearly some big sellers who seem more interested in bombing the stock than in working out of a position in an orderly fashion.
    My prediction: debt holders will take converts or warrants in exchange for waiver. Shareholders will be diluted but not wiped out. No BK, too costly for everyone. I guess we'll know in two weeks or so.

  • Reply to

    Earnings

    by felly5002 Feb 12, 2014 12:18 PM
    pembroke31 pembroke31 Feb 18, 2014 2:58 PM Flag

    Institutions were net buyers of almost 3 MM shares in Q-4 . Late day and strategic selling pressure, which has become increasingly common,was not coming from the institutions. Oddly enough, In spite of institutional buying, short interest remained flat. Just another reason to believe that there is a lot of naked short selling. Who else can be providing shares to institutional buyers who already control almost 100% of the outstanding shares? Actual short position could be huge. Much bigger than the reported short position which is already very large. Not sure what could initiate a short squeeze, but unless ACCO trends toward bankruptcy (which is certainly not happening) a short squeeze seems inevitabel

  • Reply to

    cmb taks we gkm ???????

    by ypralu Feb 14, 2014 9:15 AM
    pembroke31 pembroke31 Feb 14, 2014 9:25 AM Flag

    Say what?

CIFC
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