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OraSure Technologies, Inc. Message Board

pesotrader 13 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 12, 2016 9:19 AM Member since: Oct 11, 2005
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  • Reply to

    According to

    by edgutie Jul 11, 2016 3:57 PM
    pesotrader pesotrader Jul 12, 2016 9:19 AM Flag

    for the Medicare Advantage business, which overlaps in nine states, the combined company would hold market shares of:

    88% in Kansas;
    80% in West Virginia;
    58% in Iowa; and
    51% in Missouri.

    Missouri currently has objected, but these other key states have not chimed in yet.
    Of course, we don't know what the asset divestiture package contains... but quite
    obviously these are the KEY states that concern DOJ. IMHO there will be a deal
    and it just needs to be negotiated the size of asset sales / conditions to satisfy
    the beast.

  • Reply to

    According to

    by edgutie Jul 11, 2016 3:57 PM
    pesotrader pesotrader Jul 11, 2016 11:22 PM Flag

    Approved in 18 of 20 states.
    new york reported approval after hours.
    that leave only 2 states required
    doj and ftc can sue to block, but states are approving
    the deal so court fight would place burden on doj/ftc
    to prove these states, aet, hum are wrong.

  • Reply to

    Monstrous deal pending

    by gben1938 Jul 1, 2016 10:19 AM
    pesotrader pesotrader Jul 6, 2016 2:02 PM Flag

    river, you seem to understand the new investment strategy is CRASH INVESTING.
    in a world where little makes sense and markets (FX, oil, options, etc) are manipulated
    the essence of investing based on value fundamental is just dead wrong.
    before brexit, i was 100 percent cash b/c either way the vote went i believed the
    selloff would be extreme (i.e. sell the news). earnings season begins soon and i
    believe there will be multiple opportunities to buy/trade stocks that get slammed
    20-50 percent of trivial miss. the world is very low growth, but wallstreet must still
    churn & earn... that is the reason i mostly trade but dont get tied down... stay in
    liquid stocks & wait for CRASHes to trade/invest. analysts lie/mislead so all you
    can really trust is the blood on the streets and the buy signals (e.g. 3 days of
    permabear appearances on CNBC). OSUR is up 5 percent today for no reason
    that matters while NFLX is down 4 percent on downgrades. it can drive any retail
    investor crazy. wait for insanity, hold ur nose & buy, sell when CNBC starts back
    with positive talk... or as george costanza said... do the opposite :-)

  • Reply to

    Monstrous deal pending

    by gben1938 Jul 1, 2016 10:19 AM
    pesotrader pesotrader Jul 6, 2016 11:30 AM Flag

    good for you on the book writing, i'm sure it's low stress as
    you get to beta-test the product on grandkids :-)

    i will be around for another year, then gone forever late 2017.
    planning our overseas retirement and will not come back.

    bought some DAL today at $34.13 for a daytrade, but otherwise
    waiting for earnings season to invest.

  • Reply to

    Monstrous deal pending

    by gben1938 Jul 1, 2016 10:19 AM
    pesotrader pesotrader Jul 5, 2016 4:41 PM Flag

    i absolutely agree, the buyout of DNA Genotek is a winner. unfortunately, it came at the expense of shareholders who were diluted in order to raise the money.... and Doug's next purchase will be funded solely with money STOLEN from shareholders that were diluted almost immediately after HIV/OTC approval. let me take money from someone else's pocket and i doubt they will congratulate me for buying a good investment AND increasing my own compensation. ultimately, the strong revenues of DNA Genotek have been able to hide the incompetence of Doug & Ron at running the core OSUR business so for that reason i give them credit. take away (spin off) DNA Genotek and OSUR once again displays all the warts. unless DNA Genotek can significantly outgrow the failures of the core OSUR business (and they haven't as of yet) then investors need to assume the Doug & Ron show will continue (i.e. beat lowered guidance, collect the performance bonus, talk up hope & hype for the future, guide flat or down so the cycle continues.) look at the past 15 years and remember where OSUR traded before HIV/OTC approval when the hope was greatest.... pps is half and a forward P/E of 37 with virtually no pipeline to sustain this level. look at GILD with P/E 7. can you justify this $6 pps... i cannot but the manipulation of some stocks is so strong you just can't be short. the hope/hype story is often very strong and hard to justify. but it's fun to watch this stock nonetheless :--)

  • Reply to

    Monstrous deal pending

    by gben1938 Jul 1, 2016 10:19 AM
    pesotrader pesotrader Jul 5, 2016 2:34 PM Flag

    ok, but what exactly does that mean... will it be a long-term, gradual test program (much like Madagascar and stateside HIV test initiatives) which were big fanfare at first then subsequently dropped. is it dependent on UNAID funding? if this is a foreign country, the concern then becomes costs/profits as these have tended to be done at nearly free or profit losers. what does "significant" mean... $1M gross revenues per quarter? what's the country? Grenada? why has it taken so long to get to this point. I'll believe it when it hits the bottom line AND the doctors here in USA begin HCV tests on all patients AND health insurance companies agree to pay. since it didn't exactly happen with HIV testing and HCV testing has disappointed, I'm very skeptical that one foreign country contract will make much difference. sorry to be at odds with the "hope" trade, but i've heard this song & dance from Doug & Ron for over a decade. US won't pay up for widespread testing and EU cannot afford it either. only large and increasing order volume from a major sized country will suffice.

    btw: what exactly is the " the largest contract for this test" that has already been realized so we know where the bar is set?

  • Reply to

    Monstrous deal pending

    by gben1938 Jul 1, 2016 10:19 AM
    pesotrader pesotrader Jul 5, 2016 10:53 AM Flag

    Abbvie relationship breakup has IMO zero linkage to the "big news coming" promise. they are completely independent. however, what is a "big deal" to CEO Doug may not be a big deal for shareholders. he tends to greatly overestimate and as history tells us, OSUR execs will shamelessly pump this stock then conduct insider sales. if you want biotech-type news where the stock will soar, OSUR probably isn't the trade. the HIV/OTC "story" was something every small retail investor could grasp. not so much for HPV. ebola story, yes. zika, not so much. OSUR is in the diagnostic test business but the real money is made on treatments. personally, i would not short this stock as the trade volume isn't high enough (for my comfort) and the stock is easily manipulated by MMs and way-too-positive 3rd rate analysts. i do however watch OSUR as typically once or twice a year it presents a decent short-term scalp trade.


  • Reply to

    Monstrous deal pending

    by gben1938 Jul 1, 2016 10:19 AM
    pesotrader pesotrader Jul 4, 2016 4:30 PM Flag

    Hi Gary, Happy 4th. Are you still holding OSUR stock?

    Given that Orasure may now have to spend considerably more on marketing and the history of failures for Doug (CEO) at building a sales team, I have little faith that HCV sales will increase significantly this year or next. I do see 6+ months of increased expenses coming.

    The next hope / hype story here would be Zika related ? But absent a full blown outbreak of Ebola or Zika... or MAJOR long-term bulk purchase orders from multiple govts, I don't see a continuous revenue stream that would justify a 30 P/E.

    I'm sure the CEO is busy trying to figure out another company to buy with the cash raised from the last share issue... and once be does buy something, I'd expect him to do yet another $100M share issue.

    I will just have to watch & wish you well from the sidelines.

  • Reply to

    Monstrous deal pending

    by gben1938 Jul 1, 2016 10:19 AM
    pesotrader pesotrader Jul 2, 2016 4:47 PM Flag

    I've followed and traded this stock for much more than 10 years and do not have any position here at this point (and no plans whatsoever to start one now), so hopefully you will take my comments with the honesty they are offered.

    Doug & Ron are among the worst executives I have ever seen in the industry... for shareholders. Do NOT believe anything they promise. HIV/OTC approval was supposed to be the gamechanger with enormous sales potential. gets approved, then immediately these insiders pump it up on TV, then follow that by huge insider sales and then a massive share dilution. since then HIV/OTC sales have been pathetic. next it was HCV that would deliver blockbuster sales. nope, these clowns have overpromised and consistently underdelivered for many years. OSUR was a decent investment when CDC was buying bulk HIV tests but when that stopped the company never even attempted to pivot.

    trading this stock should be solely based on bets on the market-maker manipulation. yes, gambling!
    this is --NOT-- an investment stock to put your capital into and hold for 6+ months.
    it could rise to $10 or drop to $3, your GUESS is as good as anyone's.

    my point is don't get caught up in the lies and promises made by Doug & Ron.

    no, i've never lost money on OSUR -but- due to these clowns my trades weren't nearly as profitable as they should have been. bet only if you enjoy gambling as the game here isn't the same as before HIV/OTC approval when the market (and investors) were much more inclined to believe the hype.

    good luck !

  • pesotrader pesotrader Jun 24, 2016 3:20 PM Flag

    more likely the stock will retest $14.22 level as FX currency losses may increase and new client wins are delayed. wonder whether Ricci will still press for another $10M stock grant?

  • Reply to

    MACD/Signal Line Cross-over

    by opalockamishabob Jun 16, 2016 11:10 PM
    pesotrader pesotrader Jun 24, 2016 12:32 PM Flag

    Icahn still owns some shares and he's underwater
    medical imaging product is first-class w/ strong biz moat
    retail investors still think AAPL will buy the entire company
    hope that dragon drive will benefit from self-drive cars by 2025

    massive debt
    cash wasted on buybacks
    meager revenue growth
    heavy dose of executive over-compensation
    increased competition in most products
    stagnant patent license revenues
    weak on technological innovation (moat creation)
    FX currency headwinds
    no dividend

  • Reply to

    I wouldn't be surprised if...

    by onyxpig Jun 16, 2016 9:51 AM
    pesotrader pesotrader Jun 16, 2016 10:44 PM Flag

    highly unlikely Icahn would buy much (if any) of this debt offering since he still has a large position in the equity itself. however, there will definitely be some billionaire (e.g. george soros), insurance company (e.g. Allianz), institution or pension fund that will buy this corporate debt strictly for the interest payments and hedge the potential risk with derivatives.

    an important question for debate is whether this debt will fuel growth or simply be wasted. my bet is Ricci cannot deliver the promised revenue growth as NUAN continues to lose its importance now that the current (and future) advances are being made to the NN/AI layer sitting far above the speech recognition processing. NUAN doesn't have a history for the past decade of using capital wisely... it has a history instead of overpaying CEO Ricci and squandering its once held technological lead to others. were it not so, NUAN would be favored like NVDA.

    Liked it at $13 for a trade, hated it above $18. not an investment. options play till cycle repeats for trade


  • Reply to

    More Debt

    by billygwa74 Jun 14, 2016 10:54 AM
    pesotrader pesotrader Jun 14, 2016 11:16 AM Flag

    $300M additional debt that will be used to pay CEO Ricci and other executives a bonus, salary increase, and used to pay interest on existing debt.... which will now reach $2.5B.

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