Old news, it was announced last month.
Just two more ships available and looking for a job, sounds familiar, look at all markets. Only things working are the vast government criminal enterprises acting like gods and kings, you wish a job or work, just feed the kitty and we will allow it.
Look at 2017 for the operators to start picking up idle rigs at a low day rate with 12 to 24 month contracts.
One or two rigs a month for all drillers, no big deal, but one or two a month across all the drillers, game on.
Day rates will not move until you see idle rigs going on long term contracts. Rates rise when available rigs are limited to those coming off existing contracts rolling over to new higher rates.
As far as when, look for oil production to start decreasing from existing wells, then you will see "tenders" coming to market and the game will be on, usually takes 6 months to 18 months to get things in high gear with rigs coming on line and cold stacked rigs start moving to fill lower rate tenders..
OPEC and Non-OPEC have a new unending source of pure energy for the World. HOT AIR bellowing out of the mouths of the World Government officials, employees and Greenies. The phrase "running on fumes" will correctly characterize the transporation endustry.
There may be only 13 Drill rigs working in the World by 2018 at the current pace "DD" that is "Driller Destruction".
245 and counting down one day at a time.
Frog, I am looking at a $.51 loss for 2017 assuming not future exits by the operators from contracted rigs.
I am really bearish on what is going on, every day another shoe drops and a few more drills are hosed by the operators who are living on marginally producing wells until they go dry, then what...most drillers will be out of business.
I have not looked at the deal going forward yet. The fleet report is due shortly and will wait for that.
I don't know what sort of assets will be paid to NE, but I hope they pay down debt with what cash to get.
Now they should be marketing the drillships, but maybe hold them off until the drillers are out of the slush box.
If you think oil is going to stay at 40 or below then, yes can't make money.. Oil is going to move back to a 100, 150, and 200 unless the sun splits off and shares some off its powers or we invent oil or etc.
Soon, the gushing well will slow down and some dry up, then oil will need to be back up to cover the cost of find new fields in harsh places. When, 2021 sounds like a good time for it.
Earnings 111mm and EBITDA 363mm Cash from ops 259mm
A few changes were noted from prior reports resulting to better than expected results. Rigs are working, just not at great rates.
Looks better for some rigs are getting term contract at low day rates, and least they are working.
Best case is 1.99 with full contract extension or new contracts (excluding cold stacked rigs) and 1.01 with no extensions.
The is before the April fleet Status. It will be most difficult to get a close number given gigs coming off contract or getting extension at much lower rates.
Oh wait, a lot of one-timers.
"Excluding the impact of the arbitration award, net income attributable to Noble Corporation in the third quarter of 2015 would have been $178 million, or $0.72 per diluted share, on revenues of $760 million."
If I take out the $100 for Noble Discovery, looks like my revenue was close, and cost overstated. My net EPS was .63. I will take some time to look at each line item and post my interpretation of the 4th quarter report.
For 2016 EPS should be between $1.50 and $2.50 with revenue between 2.5B and 3.0B. The low estimate is based on no new contracts, no extension, no act of Govt, and "climate change by man".
It is difficult to forecast what is going to happen without a sound business policies of world governments. Too many bad guys and no World leadership in the White House.
Have been ignoring oil but will give a simple estimate which includes $100m Noble Discovery 90 % payout for cancellation by Shell.
Net Revenue 866m
CD cost 347m
Op cost 545m
Op income: 321m
Net Inc 208
I don't hope for a lot of recovery yet, more pain needs to dump on the oil producers. It looks like the US is going to have a few less land drillers based on the performance of the banks assuming they are going to take a hit and maybe own some oil companies.
Great EPS will have little effect on the share price of NE. its all tied to the price of oil.
I don't know how long NE can hold the dividend in place, maybe thru Oct. 16.
If I understand the release, VNR is offering to exchange 1000 note due 2020 for a replacement note equal to 450 due 2023 at 7.% vs 7.85. If the note are under 30, then is should be a nice gain for those late buyer and a raw deal for those original holders. Not a bond guy.
The street is looking for 2.60 (exld Homer) for 2015 and 1.21 for 2016. My current ranges for 2016 is 1.88 to 3.17. Low end is based on current contracts without any cancellations and marginally higher CD cost. The high end is based on all rigs under contract today will work at same rate all years.
I would be happy with 2.50 and most rigs working at less day rate. It is too early to plan much for 2016 other than assume we don't need any oil in 2016, just pump what we have, sell what is storage and if the wells run dry, that helps climate change (what ever that is is). I would buy shoe companies, we all will be walking a lot more.
Detail of the 177mm award for Homer Ferrington. CD revenue increased by 137mm, reduction in CD cost 10mm and interest income of 30mm. NE looks to have "cleaned up" some rates, maint. and downtime. I will adjust the rates to reflect the decreased rates and increased down time, but not by much.
I normally give detail comparison of my estimate to actual, but this time I am going to pass. the inclusion of the Homer's win, is not clear. We have grossed up revenue and interest income.
CD cost was 31 mm less that my estimate
Everything else was within 1mm one way or another
I am going with 737mm for CD revenue which is low by 28mm or close to the 30mm in interest income. Oh will...
How about $1.32... or $.72 excluding revenue that should have come in from Homer's work. See it does not pay to cancel or ignore contract law.
I would say over all it was really a good quarter.
I needed to remove the onetime data to see how it compares to the street which was low again I have $.64 on 797 in revenue 760 which means they had less cost.
The street is settling in on $.52-$.53 per share for Q3.
Some highlights for Q3. The major concern is CD cost coming in high because of new startups.
Revenue: 797. (CD 775)
CD cost: 324
Operating cost: 524
Detail comparison after earning reported.
That's my story...
A question about use of futures... What is the confidence level that the "futures" prices will be within 10% 2 to 4 years out from today? I'm thinking of the 2013-14 time period when oil was at $100 and the futures were looking at $150 12-24 months out.
Not trying to make an issue of your dpf, only the basic idea.