Almost text book trading, bounced off 50 % retracement, bounce up to gap from earnings miss, then next leg down to 85, 61.8 % retracement level. Folks interested in trading should study this; it's an important lesson.
Earnings were bad, but the miss was not so large to justify the large gap down.
I think Gilead's inaction to fill the earnings gap from increased competition and increased discounts is getting priced in. With the cash on hand investor's would like to see a clear path to maintain the current earnings levels.
I'm a long term investor, have been in Gilead for ten years, and will hold another ten, at least. Got quite a few shares, and of course it hurt,
You're correct, the average estimate target price already came down to 125. Obviously the gentleman above hasn't experienced earnings drying off with the subsequent share price drop. Watch and learn. Investing in markets is very expensive until you learned your lessons...
Apple’s net profits dropped 22% to $10.5 billion from $13.6 billion in the same quarter a year ago.
Gross margins fell to 39.4% from 40.8%, not so bad, but for its third quarter, Apple is predicting a continuing decline in margins, to 37.5%.
The new model SE will further stress margins and Apple will have a hard time to maintain its margin and profitability.
Knowing that the phone is the lifeblood of Apple, the margin concerns are real concerns for the stock value.
The message is clear and the writing is on the wall. Apple topped out and has nowhere to go. It will take years for Apple to catch up with innovation, if ever, and as revenue drops the PE will sky-rock quickly. Right now Apple is a one trick pony, and the symptoms observed at Apple have been observed at Blackberry, Nokia, Microsoft, etc. There is no more innovation at Apple and the great marketing machine at Apple can take the products only so far, the Ipad is proving itself a fad, Apple pay a flop nobody is using, Iwatch a flop nobody is using and the only product, the Iphone is becoming a true commodity, and eventually will be replaced by a new innovation by an upcoming new company. Apple is on borrowed time.
By Ben Levisohn
Leerink’s Geoffrey Porges was already bullish on shares of Gilead Sciences (GILD)–he was tied for the seventh highest price target among analysts covering the stock–but he’s even more so today. After raising his target price to $130 from $125, he has the third highest price target on the biotech giant. Porges explains why he’s optimistic:
We recently resumed coverage of Gilead Sciences (GILD) with an Outperform rating driven in large part by our more positive view of the company’s HIV franchise; after revisiting our underlying assumptions and incorporating recent developments, we remain positive overall about the stock and raise our price target to $130 (from $125). Central to our core thesis regarding the HIV franchise is a positive outlook on the next-generation TAF-containing products near-term and those based on GS9883 mid- to long-term. Clinical data and current treatment unmet needs continue to support likely strong demand and market uptake of combination therapies of both. ...
Citigroup’s Robyn Karnauskas and team sums up the latest IMS data on Gilead Sciences’ (GILD) hepatitis-C drugs:
IMS released data for the week ending 3/4/2016 this AM. GILD HCV continues to hold ground at 94% share…
GILD HCV: franchise was slightly down w/w in terms of new starts and holds 94% share among the new patients. We are in week #5 of new competition launch. However, new pt. starts are tracking 3% below last Q (QTD). Total scripts are tracking ~9% below last Q and pointing to 1Q’16 sales at $2.16B vs. est. and $2.46B consensus. VA sales are a big unknown as lack of budget impacted Q4’15 sales. We do not think IMS fully captures VA sales and their annual budget of $1.5B (for HCV) could be the differentiating factor. In Q4’15, IMS projected volume decline of 10% but actual decline was 27% due to lower VA sales.
Gilead: What About Its Pipeline?
by Ben Levisohn
With so much of the focus on Gilead Sciences’ (GILD) Hepatitis-C franchise, UBS analyst Matthew Roden and team wonder if its pipeline of drugs is “under-appreciated” following a call with the biotech giant’s head of research & development. They explain:
Trading at 10.5x 2015e EPS, we think Gilead’s stock reflects significant HCV tail risks and minimal credit for pipeline and capital allocation. The rigorousness in R&D was evident in our call, suggesting pipeline optionality ranging from antivirals to fibrosis, solid tumors, and cardiovascular. We also think market is starting to underestimate Gilead’s commercial prowess despite an overall HCV package that is first and best in class.
Shares of Gilead Science have fallen 0.4% to $101.66 at 10:01 a.m. today, even as the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB) has advanced 1.2% to $291.55.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I first invested in GILD in 2006. I cannot tell you how much money I've made but gild is by far my most profitable holding. I added and reduced shares over time but will always keep a core holding. It's a fantastic company with a great management team.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Unlocking value from the combine R&D facilities from acquisitions AMGN easily can go over 200 and then some. There is a lot of value in the pipeline. 12 month target could be upgraded to 300
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Citation from Barons:"
Gilead Sciences: Another Big Jump in Hep-C Prescriptions
Another Friday, another set of prescription data on Gilead Sciences’ (GILD) Hepatitis C drugs Sovaldi and Harvoni.
ISI Evercore’s Mark Schoenebaum notes that prescriptions for Harvoni rose 79% to 1,983, while Sovaldi rose 5% to 4,302. Together, the two drugs rose 20% to 6,286 prescriptions.
Schoenebaum says that prescriptions need to average 7,900 during the fourth quarter to meet consensus estimates–and he thinks Gilead will get there. “If you assume growth slows every week into quarter’s end from 20%, you get to consensus estimates,” he says.
Bernstein’s Geoffrey Porges and Wen Shi take the long view on Gilead:
We believe that Gilead Sciences will be one of the more remarkable growth stories in industry history from 2013 until 2017, with one of the fastest launches in industry history emerging from its Hepatitis C franchise. This launch adds to a steadily growing HIV franchise which offers relatively predictable 8-10% growth through 2017. In addition the company has an emerging oncology franchise which will be led by idelalisib which was just approved for B cell malignancies. We now forecast that earnings will grow explosively, from $1.95 in 2012 to more than $13 in 2016 and 2017, which should capture the attention and imagination of most active growth investors. We remain concerned that 2018 will see a significant decline in revenue, cash flow and earnings; TAF is turning into one of the company’s most valuable tools to mitigate that decline, but we still believe that the company will need to identify additional blockbuster opportunities to even maintain stable revenue, earnings and cash flow after 2017. Nevertheless even our most conservative valuation methodologies suggest that the stock is worth $120-130/share and with more aggressive methods even more upside can be justified."
BIIB are scheduled to report earnings Oct 22nd. Consensus Estimate is $3.22, but BIIB has a history of blow out earnings, which could drive the stock over 400. It will start moving in a week or two in anticipation of the earnings.
I was about to ask when we will hit two hundred, but that seems to be a given now and I would anticipate that no later than by year end the stock will have moved decisively over 200.
The question is about if the company can continue its strong growth story being able to hit 300.
There must have been a news leak somewhere how else can you explain a 20 % increase in price on high volume. This actually bides well for more price appreciation and a short squeeze. We easily could ride this to over three and above over the next few days...