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AFCE Message Board

principletrade 13 posts  |  Last Activity: May 25, 2016 3:39 PM Member since: Aug 10, 2012
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  • Reply to

    WT

    by dontfollowtrends May 25, 2016 12:29 PM
    principletrade principletrade May 25, 2016 3:39 PM Flag

    Yeah, really you make a bigger percentage going long. Example: if a stock trades in a $10-$15 trading range you make 50% going long at 10, but you only make 33% going short at 15. You're going to make way more money going long on a range-bound stock.

    Beyond that, the worst you can lose going long is 100%. Your losses on a short could be theoretically limitless.

  • Reply to

    CC

    by shorting_amazon May 23, 2016 12:55 PM
    principletrade principletrade May 23, 2016 4:22 PM Flag

    I'd like to go on to say that I think most shareholders would prefer VOXX to simply stick to their proven business segments and try to actually earn a profit.

    It's one excuse after another with their ill-advised schemes and shareholders have simply been screwed as this continues in a virtual free-fall quarter after quarter.

    There's almost certainly some value locked up somewhere in a company with a market cap that's less than 1/10th of revenues.

  • Reply to

    CC

    by shorting_amazon May 23, 2016 12:55 PM
    principletrade principletrade May 23, 2016 3:02 PM Flag

    Yeah, the management is basically flailing around reckless ideas and shareholders don't really have a voice. That's how you earn a $2 sp.

    That's really pathetic. The current enterprise value has got to be even lower than what Klipsh and several other of their brands are worth EACH. There are probably high school kids that would run this better. lol

  • principletrade principletrade May 23, 2016 2:58 PM Flag

    Yeah, they may not post a profit in Q2, they probably won't due to extraordinary expenses. All I'm saying is that there could be a silver lining from an accounting standpoint if the share price is low when the shares are issued.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • principletrade principletrade May 23, 2016 2:46 PM Flag

    Yeah, I've been hearing some radio ads for LL here in mid-Missouri.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • LL recorded a $16M loss on the tentative issuance of 1M shares last quarter for the class action settlement. Even though that's a non-cash event it was based on the trading price at the time the Memorandum of Understanding was reached.

    If this trading range keeps up it's possible that LL could record a gain on paper when the shares are issued. Yes, it's not actually too substantive, but based on the current sp that would add about 14 cents to earnings.

    Yes, it's a silly thing to be happy about, but anything to help the bottom line is a positive in my view right now since it helps the press headlines and MIGHT help some people realize that it's not a doomsday scenario here.

    LL has a strong balance sheet and the March revenues indicate they are beating numbers from last summer.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • principletrade by principletrade May 17, 2016 11:40 AM Flag

    Spring is a strong season for flooring. It's safe to assume that LL will at-least equal March revenues in each month this quarter. That would make Q2 revenues $258M or more versus $248 a year ago.

    When LL reports beating revenues yoy and sequentially the pundits that never actually delve into the details will be reporting that we have "turned the corner", even though that's already apparent from the Q1 report if you actually read it. We may even beat Q1 2015 revenues. A quarter where LL was mostly unscathed from newcarsmellgate.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • principletrade by principletrade May 16, 2016 5:29 PM Flag

    Spring is a strong season for flooring sales and LL did $86M in March.

    If they equal that number in each month this quarter that's $258M in revenues versus $248M last year.

    LL will have positive comps for sure and end the naysaying.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • principletrade principletrade May 12, 2016 2:53 PM Flag

    To clarify, I meant to say that Q2 revenues will be $257M if they equal March 2016 revenues in each month this quarter, which I believe is conservative.

    It's entirely possible that that Q2 revenues could go as high as $260M.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • If you deduct extraordinary expenses for: Air testing (2.9M) Transporting "tainted flooring" to a warehouse (1.6M) and the added SG&A from Legal and Settlement costs (29.5M) LL would have shown a loss of $7.1M ($0.26 per-share) last quarter.

    If LL equals the revenues from the chart on EDGAR during each month in Q2, that will result in a $257M quarter. BEATING the comp YOY, and adding $7.6M to gross profits sequentially. That is enough to push LL into profitable territory when normalized.

    The settlement costs are already factored into the balance sheet at this point and legal and professional costs should finally begin to decrease.

    LL will BEAT comps and have positive normalized earnings Q2.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • principletrade principletrade May 12, 2016 1:26 PM Flag

    Exacly, especially with the company already under a microscope and several former executives with pending lawsuits for insider selling.

    The insider transaction argument on the short-side is just silly.

  • I've noticed several posts speaking about the cost of the resolution of the class action lawsuit still being an unknown, and I think that misunderstanding should be addressed.

    The 10-Q stated "The terms provide for the use of available insurance proceeds..." and goes on to say they will set aside 1M shares of common stock to a settlement fund. Under no circumstances will the settlement exceed the amount of available insurance, so the settlement will be paid directly from LL's insurers and will be a zero-cash expense.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Now qtr is behind us and future is cleaner

    by harnashezbollah May 11, 2016 12:12 PM
    principletrade principletrade May 11, 2016 2:06 PM Flag

    Yeah, when there are multiple legal and regulatory issues being settled it's unlikely that insiders could trade. That being said, an insider buying would probably instill some confidence if it was legal or not.