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Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, Inc. Message Board

privatesurfing12 145 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 2, 2016 9:36 PM Member since: Dec 18, 2012
  • Reply to

    Swamp isn't draining properly

    by carlrich Jul 11, 2016 4:57 PM
    privatesurfing12 privatesurfing12 Jul 19, 2016 4:43 PM Flag

    My sources here in DC say it was not a "fake coup" by Erd. It was just a truly incompetent one by a small faction within the military. Erd is taking advantage of it though to clean out opposition. We won't recognize Turkey in 10 years. Likely sooner.

  • Reply to

    Swamp isn't draining properly

    by carlrich Jul 11, 2016 4:57 PM
    privatesurfing12 privatesurfing12 Jul 19, 2016 3:19 PM Flag

    Communicated with the IR at CG. Nice guy. Seems more on the ball than TC. Asked some questions. Provided some unsolicited comments/suggestions. Including the selling of Kumtor. I'm sure he appreciates us giving them strategic business advice. Lol.

    Btw, he confirmed that they do NOT have political insurance for Kumtor!! Just the collateral there for the $76m EBRD "debt". I'm not so sure about selling the Turkey mine. That still could be a keeper.

  • Reply to

    Hello TC alums!

    by privatesurfing12 Jul 15, 2016 3:16 PM
    privatesurfing12 privatesurfing12 Jul 19, 2016 2:12 AM Flag

    I feel like the Rapture happened and I was left behind. lol.

    Where is everyone???

  • privatesurfing12 by privatesurfing12 Jul 19, 2016 2:08 AM Flag

    Ultra, dragon, gator, etc--- you guys still around?

    I book marked this page on my iPhone. It's the only way I can easily still get here.

  • Reply to

    Ultra was correct about TC

    by dragon_legal_department Jul 15, 2016 11:21 AM
    privatesurfing12 privatesurfing12 Jul 16, 2016 9:09 AM Flag

    Perron / 3 stooges wanted CG to buy them and on the cheap. #$%$.

  • Reply to

    Turkey

    by do_lo_when Jul 15, 2016 8:17 PM
    privatesurfing12 privatesurfing12 Jul 16, 2016 8:58 AM Flag

    Turns out to be a "fake" planned coup to justify a massive purge. Looks like to me.

  • Reply to

    Swamp isn't draining properly

    by carlrich Jul 11, 2016 4:57 PM
    privatesurfing12 privatesurfing12 Jul 15, 2016 6:52 PM Flag

    The coup is a good thing in this case. The military is secularist by tradition -- as is the country. Erdogan is a crazy dude that is more sympathetic to theocracy. He'll be arrested soon enough. If CG dips, buy the dip!

  • If it was a good deal... Why no insider buys???
    If prospects were bright... Why no insider buys???

  • privatesurfing12 by privatesurfing12 Jul 15, 2016 3:16 PM Flag

    Might as well just start using this board.
    Welcome everybody. :-).

    So we move from debt maturity problem to a expropriation problem. We must be masochists!?!?!?

    I think there's no choice now but to support the deal. I hate it. We got raped. Just hope that CG respects shareholders more.

  • Reply to

    Swamp isn't draining properly

    by carlrich Jul 11, 2016 4:57 PM
    privatesurfing12 privatesurfing12 Jul 15, 2016 3:12 PM Flag

    3crew it. Let's just go to CAGDF mb then. This is gonna be a done deal anyway.
    The only thing that MIGHt chg is the share ratio but that's a wish.

    I vote CAGDF board. It's clean. Good start.

  • Reply to

    Swamp isn't draining properly

    by carlrich Jul 11, 2016 4:57 PM
    privatesurfing12 privatesurfing12 Jul 15, 2016 2:47 PM Flag

    I don't know why we just don't go to tcptf MB until the deal is final then move to CAGDF.

  • Reply to

    Swamp isn't draining properly

    by carlrich Jul 11, 2016 4:57 PM
    privatesurfing12 privatesurfing12 Jul 15, 2016 2:04 PM Flag

    Dragon
    There is no economic insurance on Kumtor. The only "insurance" in a manner of speaking is that the $76m in existing debt at CG is all collateralized with some of the assets at Kumtor.

    Here's a faint silver lining though.

    That debt is from the EBRD. So CG does potentially have not only the Canadian Gov but also the EU to help with any political pressure. EBRD will be very helpful as they could put a plug in any more loans that involve Kstan. That will help!

  • Reply to

    Swamp isn't draining properly

    by carlrich Jul 11, 2016 4:57 PM
    privatesurfing12 privatesurfing12 Jul 15, 2016 1:52 PM Flag

    Dragon
    True.
    I was probably being too lose with the term arb. Optimal might be better.
    The risk at CG is smaller than at TC. A lot is already priced into the CG pps. But if Kstan take it over, pps could go to $2. The nice part is that they have some new mines coming on line which is a catalyst. CG has a big advantage though.... No debt. That cures a lot of the risks.

  • Reply to

    Ultra was correct about TC

    by dragon_legal_department Jul 15, 2016 11:21 AM
    privatesurfing12 privatesurfing12 Jul 15, 2016 1:45 PM Flag

    Dragon
    I put all of the blame on the c-suite idiots, haddon, and later the new stooges bmo and moelis. None of us thought that mgmt could literally be so dumb. We all bought into the notion that with a rock star mine even a semi trained monkey could deal with the situation.

    I gave them benefit of the doubt to be at least just as smart as a monkey until Q2 2014 cc where they announced in epic botched fashion the hard rock problem. That was the come to Jesus moment for me on that whole thing. After that... I doubted everything they did or said because I knew better. I became a realist on that call despite the obvious path fwd for them. But instead they go off and do Ike deal and all that other nonsense.

    Perron is either a felon fraud/scamster doing all he could to have his "friends" buy TC on the cheap or is a titanic moron. In his case.... Likely both actually.

    A CG board seat goes to someone on TC BoD. I just hope CG is not stoopid enough to give it to Perron or Haddon.

  • Reply to

    Swamp isn't draining properly

    by carlrich Jul 11, 2016 4:57 PM
    privatesurfing12 privatesurfing12 Jul 15, 2016 1:20 PM Flag

    Dragon
    I am wrestling what to do as well. I'm keeping eye on all the prices and exchange rates to see if an Arb opportunity or optimal timing presents itself. CG mgmt seems far far far smarter than TC clowns. But that's a low bar. Sadly.

    The only thing holding me back with sticking around with CG is Kumtor / Kyrgyzstan. If Kumtor gets nationalized (actual or effectively) then it's just another fresh train wreck. Contrary to wishful thinking on this MB-- there is no political insurance policy on Kumtor. Cost prohibitive. It's not there. They only mini-hedge is the $75m debt is collateralized by the mobile assets at Kumtor. Not ideal but it's something. CG should sell their entire stake (all of it) back to Kstan or other parties and get out! Use that cash to buy yet another troubled miner.

    This deal is going to happen. I just wish at a little higher price.

  • Reply to

    In favor of Centerra deal

    by theodore.vecchione Jul 7, 2016 5:07 PM
    privatesurfing12 privatesurfing12 Jul 15, 2016 10:01 AM Flag

    I hate told-you-so's but.... I was right. There is no expropriation insurance policy on Kumtor. That should've given the 3 stooges a little more backbone during the john Kerry style negotiation with CG.

    Like I said the other day-- if CG had such a policy it would effectively be a put option on Kumtor which means the CG pps would not have nose dived (20 to 5 usd) when Kstan started playing dirty again. CG would sell the entire mine to the Kstan Gov and then implement negotiation a mine mgmt type agreement to actually operate the mine without owning it.... Or get out altogether.

    Bottom we jumped out of the debt maturity boiling pot into the mine nationalization boiling pot. Ugh.

    3 stooges (moelis bmo Perron/saxton/haddon) = worst negotiators and execs on the planet!!!!!

    Consider yourselves "warned" with regards to CG/Kumtor. On the slight positive side, the $75m used in the credit facility is collateralized by assets at Kumtor. So a minimal hedge there. CG at least seems to be far far far smarter than TC clowns / 3 stooges.

  • Reply to

    Read the proxy statement out today.....

    by cracklesnapper1 Jul 13, 2016 8:21 PM
    privatesurfing12 privatesurfing12 Jul 15, 2016 7:27 AM Flag

    Well remember- there were other bidders. But id rather CG sweeten the pot a lot but instead.

  • privatesurfing12 by privatesurfing12 Jul 14, 2016 6:55 PM Flag

    Even after the deal was announced and now all the excuses for blackout periods are over..... They still aren't buying shares.

  • Reply to

    Read the proxy statement out today.....

    by cracklesnapper1 Jul 13, 2016 8:21 PM
    privatesurfing12 privatesurfing12 Jul 14, 2016 6:39 PM Flag

    Go to sec dot gov site. You can get it there.

  • Reply to

    Read the proxy statement out today.....

    by cracklesnapper1 Jul 13, 2016 8:21 PM
    privatesurfing12 privatesurfing12 Jul 14, 2016 6:37 PM Flag

    Dragon
    Fair point but I think Centerra was likely the bulk of it. I have a strong hunch.

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