However things end up, just remember if Sept 19 on the weekly chart marks the start of a long term trend reversal into 2017.... note that exactly one year after the previous trend began April 28, 2014, the selloff started (Apr 27, 2015), even though IBB continued higher until mid-July.
If you were a buyer this past week and the chart repeats over the next 12 months, might want to remember to think about taking gains as soon as your investment is eligible for preferential tax treatment as a long term cap gain.
He's one of the largest investors in SMMT as well... smaller than DVAX. Their stock price is up recently on news of a collaboration with SRPT.
I hope that wasn't the case, given they stated most of the layoffs were done at the same time Mulroy resigned. When I worked for companies in the same situation, it took 2 - 4 weeks to determine who would be laid off, what projects would be prioritized, who would be needed to work on them, for HR to prepare, etc.
Early progress in CAR-T w/solid tumors: http://finance.yahoo.com/m/3261f646-f411-3c11-ac39-c59fbd944447/ss_new-car-t-cell-therapy-may.html
You're right about MACK using modeling in liposomal drug discovery.
From the MM-310 press release: "We also used our systems approach to choose the EphA2 target as a means of enhancing MM-310's ability to be taken in by tumor cells and to penetrate deep into the tumor core."
IMHO if MACK shelves everything but 302 and 398, Crocker is setting the company up to be sold. He seems to have a history of selling companies and should be able to get it done without significant dilution... perhaps by EOY 2017 or Q1 2018.
I was speculating selling the liposome platform for around 800M and using 200M to make an acquisition to jump-start entry into a hot area like bi-specific T-Cell antibodies. CELG just made a 600M acquisition of a clinical stage company in this area.
Also this statement seems relevant. I guess we need to hear from management what programs they consider to have the potential for disruptive change in cancer treatment. When I hear the word "disruptive" I think immuno-oncology.
This strategic shift is designed to align our resources with the programs that have the GREATEST POTENTIAL for DISRUPTIVE change in the diagnosis and treatment of cancer
Two items from the press release:
1. Merrimack plans to provide more financial and strategic details regarding the conclusion of this product prioritization process by the END OF the FOURTH quarter.
(Hopefully we'll get some hints at the big picture moving forward sooner, at the quarterly earnings CC)
2. Research and development to focus on a set of SYSTEMS BIOLOGY-DERIVED oncology products. ... This major restructuring will allow us to strategically align our pipeline with our CORE CAPABILITIES...
(Given mgmt. constantly touts systems biology as their defining capability, that sounds like they might be doing the opposite of what I expected, and instead are tilting back toward systems biology, possibly away from nano-liopsomal formulations (??possibly selling 302, 398, 310 to Shire next year after 1st line PC data??) and pushing forward with their antibody program (121, 141, 151) and continuing to construct the systems biology model for immuno-oncology mentioned during analyst day. They could get enough cash from 398, 302, 310 to fund the company for four years or more and push forward into R&D efforts favored by Ulrich, who is still on MACK's board and is supposedly tinkering at Torque in immuno-oncology.)
BTIG attributes the SP increase to sales data 10.9M gross for July, Aug.
JPM would be one company that could do this, given they cover MACK, have a large asset management branch with their own funds, and have an active underwriting business.
Could be IMS data is showing much better sales revenues for the Q as well. Mgmt stated they are working to improve the patient mix to extend duration of treatment.
Yet another possibility is a large secondary is coming at 6. To get the business, the underwriter quoted 6 and is front-running its own offering to push up MACK's share price. That wouldn't be so difficult given the huge short interest.
Strange, daily short volume on trades reported through TRS today is high (.69) w/7.19M shares of the total volume of trades reported through TRS. Most of that volume is coming from dark pools. (shortvolume.com)
COLL looking like MACK as well w/no news, no BO chatter... but got lots of analyst upgrades, unlike MACK. Perhaps MACK's rise has something to do with Allergan's acquisition of Vitae?
Mot Fool and other services will be fishing for rumors. I'm waiting for one of those "Why MACK gained 20% Today" stories.
Once the funding is resolved, shorts should start covering... so I don't see much long-term downside to additional dilution... perhaps just a short-term dip for a few weeks. Looks like buyers are stepping up now knowing EMA approval is really close.
I still don't see a near-term buyout until the pipeline is proven. No antibody asset has been proven beyond phase I. The market is discounting the price below $5/share due to the weak balance sheet. MACK doesn't have a lot of hedge funds buying, that is indicative of a buyout candidate. Mgmt proved their incompetence when they stated the SI would decrease when the debt was settled. That obviously wouldn't happen until the cash balance improved. They should have done the two simultaneously, as is usually the case.
One analyst has speculated Shire wants to spin off its oncology assets in 2019 or 2020. That timeframe would agree w/mine in terms of a possible buyout by Shire... after MM-121 data.
You can take a look at Shire's acquisition of NPS to get an idea of what they might pay. I don't see more than $12/share at the most... more likely $10.... until the pipeline is more mature. Perhaps Shire would through MACK a lifeline by taking an equity stake, but I'm not counting on it. The next couple months will be interesting because something has to happen soon.
2017 should be a better year. MM-111 was supposed to fill this void (2016) with a significant binary event. Financing should have been taken care of when the stock price was over 8. I don't mind dilution because the co. can buy back shares when they achieve profitability... if all goes well in five or six years and have paid down the debt.
What odds do U give for the two major trial results next year? I think front line PC is 95%, given there are already at least two large academic studies using standard IR.
302 is a bit more difficult to handicap given the small sample size in phase 1, but doxy has already proven efficacy in breast cancer and MACK has proven w/398 that the mechanism of action works. So I'm gong with 75% chance of success.
Yes. From the 10-Q:
As of June 30, 2016, we had unrestricted cash and cash equivalents and marketable securities of $82.7 million. We believe that our existing financial resources, together with anticipated net product revenues and net royalty payments from sales of ONIVYDE and the net milestone payments and reimbursements we expect to receive under our Baxalta collaboration, will be sufficient to fund our operations into the second quarter of 2017. In addition, we have the ability to further manage spending as needed.