BTIG attributes the SP increase to sales data 10.9M gross for July, Aug.
JPM would be one company that could do this, given they cover MACK, have a large asset management branch with their own funds, and have an active underwriting business.
Could be IMS data is showing much better sales revenues for the Q as well. Mgmt stated they are working to improve the patient mix to extend duration of treatment.
Yet another possibility is a large secondary is coming at 6. To get the business, the underwriter quoted 6 and is front-running its own offering to push up MACK's share price. That wouldn't be so difficult given the huge short interest.
Strange, daily short volume on trades reported through TRS today is high (.69) w/7.19M shares of the total volume of trades reported through TRS. Most of that volume is coming from dark pools. (shortvolume.com)
COLL looking like MACK as well w/no news, no BO chatter... but got lots of analyst upgrades, unlike MACK. Perhaps MACK's rise has something to do with Allergan's acquisition of Vitae?
Mot Fool and other services will be fishing for rumors. I'm waiting for one of those "Why MACK gained 20% Today" stories.
Once the funding is resolved, shorts should start covering... so I don't see much long-term downside to additional dilution... perhaps just a short-term dip for a few weeks. Looks like buyers are stepping up now knowing EMA approval is really close.
I still don't see a near-term buyout until the pipeline is proven. No antibody asset has been proven beyond phase I. The market is discounting the price below $5/share due to the weak balance sheet. MACK doesn't have a lot of hedge funds buying, that is indicative of a buyout candidate. Mgmt proved their incompetence when they stated the SI would decrease when the debt was settled. That obviously wouldn't happen until the cash balance improved. They should have done the two simultaneously, as is usually the case.
One analyst has speculated Shire wants to spin off its oncology assets in 2019 or 2020. That timeframe would agree w/mine in terms of a possible buyout by Shire... after MM-121 data.
You can take a look at Shire's acquisition of NPS to get an idea of what they might pay. I don't see more than $12/share at the most... more likely $10.... until the pipeline is more mature. Perhaps Shire would through MACK a lifeline by taking an equity stake, but I'm not counting on it. The next couple months will be interesting because something has to happen soon.
2017 should be a better year. MM-111 was supposed to fill this void (2016) with a significant binary event. Financing should have been taken care of when the stock price was over 8. I don't mind dilution because the co. can buy back shares when they achieve profitability... if all goes well in five or six years and have paid down the debt.
What odds do U give for the two major trial results next year? I think front line PC is 95%, given there are already at least two large academic studies using standard IR.
302 is a bit more difficult to handicap given the small sample size in phase 1, but doxy has already proven efficacy in breast cancer and MACK has proven w/398 that the mechanism of action works. So I'm gong with 75% chance of success.
Yes. From the 10-Q:
As of June 30, 2016, we had unrestricted cash and cash equivalents and marketable securities of $82.7 million. We believe that our existing financial resources, together with anticipated net product revenues and net royalty payments from sales of ONIVYDE and the net milestone payments and reimbursements we expect to receive under our Baxalta collaboration, will be sufficient to fund our operations into the second quarter of 2017. In addition, we have the ability to further manage spending as needed.
They've already guided cash into Q2 2017 on the quarterly report. Odd it was omitted from the oral presentation on the CC, but it was in the quarterly filing.
A couple positive points I noted from the conference call were:
1. Duration of treatment for Onivyde patients is continuing to improve as the mix of patients more closely resembles that in the Napoli study - Mulroy admitted the early mix of patients was a disappointment, causing the duration of treatment to be lower than expected - so perhaps revenues might actually exceed expectations sometime in the next two Q's?
2. Mulroy pretty much stated that the front line PC study would move forward to part 2 based on the information they've accumulated to date.
Unfortunately, no mention of their financial state, except that 700M of Onivyde milestone and royalty payments are still outstanding..
Their timeframe is long.
One public co. I worked for had funds invested 10 years through ups and downs, patiently waiting for buyout that finally came at an inflated price, but it was a rollercoaster getting there.
Here's an article where the final paragraph points out why potential partners could be hesitant on 302 until 2017 data is available:
It's also possible they've got a verbal commitment from Shire to partner 302 if successful and mgmt. is taking their time to get a bridge loan. However Shire has rights to negotiate only ex-US in the 398 partnership agreement so I doubt the up-front payment would provide enough to get MACK through 2018 (121 data)... especially given 2018 data could be delayed into 2019 since the primary endpoint is OS and therefore harder to predict... the longer the better!
I'm wondering what their plan is as well. A partnership to me just doesn't seem plausible until at least we have 302 data in 2017. Mulroy is starting to look like Nero fiddling while Rome burns!
Perhaps they've decided to do a VERY large offering (100M shares)) and they were advised by underwriters that they could only get N per share, where N was significantly below market price... so it didn't matter how long mgmt. waited to do it? If so, it would be a fantastic buying opportunity for retail investors to take another ride like 2012 - 2015. This time around the SP could go from $2.5 to $15 in four years.
The other possibility is they have a potential suitor (Shire?) that will do a buy-in (20%+) after more data is available. They would need another bridge loan.
At any rate, the market cap should could go to
- $1B on successful 302 trial and funding through 2018
- $1.25B on 302 partnership
- $1.5B on 1st line PC data.