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Alkermes plc Message Board

ramsr14u2 16 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 1, 2016 12:43 PM Member since: May 7, 2010
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  • Reply to

    Ram on PGNX Part Two

    by ramsr14u2 Jun 30, 2016 3:23 PM
    ramsr14u2 ramsr14u2 Jul 1, 2016 12:43 PM Flag

    I have provided you innumerable facts backing my comments and thesis. You on the other hand offer only buffoonish statements disregarding available facts. The bottom line is the market is casting a long pall over this stock. In fact, the price action indicates something dire is about to happen. Ours is to guess what the market is foretelling. It could well be another PDUFA postponement. It could be a CRL for oral Relistor as a result of some heretofore unknown Valeant misstep. Sales of Relistor may fall another 30% on top of the latest quarter over quarter precipitous 30% fall. Valeant might be forced to walk away from PGNX altogether. It could be any or several of these things that Mr. Market is whispering into our ears.

    It simply is not time to buy this stock. It is way overpriced for any imagined realistic risk/reward scenario. Good luck all.

  • Reply to

    Ram on PGNX Part Two

    by ramsr14u2 Jun 30, 2016 3:23 PM
    ramsr14u2 ramsr14u2 Jul 1, 2016 10:12 AM Flag

    Sales of Relistor are declining rapidly. Movantik eating into market share and the disarray among the Valeant sales force are the drivers of this steep decline. You have to believe that Valeant is offering steep discounts as well. This will further erode revenue from Relistor sales. At this point, a larger concern has to be Valeant's long term plans. They know they are going to have to sell off parts of the business to reduce debt. It simply has to happen. It is a possibility PGNX and Relistor will be caught up in this. I could see a scenario where Valeant kicks the oral Relistor can down the road. With all their liquidity struggles I find it hard to imagine them being able to meet the obligation of a $50m milestone to PGNX. I have no personal knowledge of anything like this happening, but the VRX liquidity situation is a ticking bomb. The U.S. government does not hold a favorable view of VRX currently. This could negatively influence the FDA. If Valeant wants an out on oral Relistor it likely is available to them. Another PDUFA delay might be in the offing.

    Lot's to ponder here. Do your own DD and formulate your own plan. I'm not buying this stock at the moment. It's just far too expensive. Oral Relistor appears at risk. There isn't anything else in the pipeline even close to coming to market. Lots of negativity here, and Mr. Market has spoken loudly. Good luck all.

  • Reply to

    FDA approval

    by chilwinston Jun 30, 2016 6:44 AM
    ramsr14u2 ramsr14u2 Jun 30, 2016 5:39 PM Flag

    Sorry, but bashing is what you did in your post. You know, spouting off the cuff about someone you don't even know. LOL. Please, discuss if you will, where I have bashed. I have parsed out reasoned facts. That is called debate. Your argument has no basis really. Mr. Market has dumped this from $11 to $4. Sales of the flagship drug are in a steep decline and the sales force is out of the control of the company. As has been pointed out options depict a more dire picture than the one currently in focus. Blind hope is all that is keeping the ship afloat. Hope is not a viable strategy.

    Cheers.

  • Reply to

    FDA approval

    by chilwinston Jun 30, 2016 6:44 AM
    ramsr14u2 ramsr14u2 Jun 30, 2016 5:10 PM Flag

    Nice to see a reasoned post. I don't view charts in the same way as you, but we agree with where the price should be. I have a self-made model from 35+ years of investing in biotech stocks. Of course it hinges upon my inputs, but I try to be as transparent as I can. We all have biases, so there is that. This stock is being propped up by retail investors and the great market manipulators. The prevailing facts paint a much different picture than the current share price. That being said the manipulators are a powerful force. They can move things regardless of facts. My hope is that reasoned folk like you and I can help the little guy a bit. This stock is EXPENSIVE. Be patient. I think we get a better entry point. Just a guy and his thoughts. Do your own DD and invest in the thesis you compose.

    Cheers.

  • ramsr14u2 by ramsr14u2 Jun 30, 2016 3:23 PM Flag

    Honestly, I think this stock would be trading at $2 per share were it not for the upcoming PDUFA. That is scary. On $16.6m in sales of Relistor PGNX got $2.2m. Look at the financials on this company. There is considerable competition in this space and more on the way, probably. I have a hard time projecting Relistor sales much above $100m annually. PGNX will get a small fraction of this amount. Trusting Valeant on this PDUFA is risky as well. I think they would vacate the GI space in a heartbeat. It isn't core for them. Does VRX really want to be on the hook for a $50m milestone for something they consider non-core? Lots to ponder here. I just can't justify a purchase at these prices when you look at the pipeline and the financials. It's just one guy opining, so don't panic. Do your own DD and never follow the advice of anyone on a message board. Holy cow.

    Cheers.

  • Reply to

    Ram's PGNX Ramblings

    by ramsr14u2 Jun 29, 2016 1:06 PM
    ramsr14u2 ramsr14u2 Jun 30, 2016 2:06 PM Flag

    LOL. Relistor sales in 4th qtr. '15 was $23m and 1st qtr. '16 was $16.5. Movantik last three qtrs. are $4m, $10m, $17m. Relistor will be $12m at best in current qtr. Movantik will be $20m+. Thanks for playing though.

  • Reply to

    Ram's PGNX Ramblings

    by ramsr14u2 Jun 29, 2016 1:06 PM
    ramsr14u2 ramsr14u2 Jun 30, 2016 10:49 AM Flag

    Actually, the DEA removed it from the controlled substances and the product launched in March as you write. It has been eroding sales of Relistor certainly. However, Valeant is the bigger issue. It isn't PGNX's fault necessarily, but the Valeant sales force is in disarray. I predict latest qtr. sales of Relistor will be horrible. Distribution is going on with this stock. It isn't time to buy yet.

  • Reply to

    Ram's PGNX Ramblings

    by ramsr14u2 Jun 29, 2016 1:06 PM
    ramsr14u2 ramsr14u2 Jun 29, 2016 10:34 PM Flag

    Movantik was launched in March of '15. Trust me, Valeant is the drag on Relistor at the moment. I definitely see PGNX retesting the lows of the year. Just my opinion, but the chart is in strong support of my thesis.

  • Reply to

    Ram's PGNX Ramblings

    by ramsr14u2 Jun 29, 2016 1:06 PM
    ramsr14u2 ramsr14u2 Jun 29, 2016 4:04 PM Flag

    LOL.....Someone thumbs downed me. Go look at Relistor sales the last two qtrs. Big drop off in the last quarter as Valeant hit rough water. It will be much worse next time PGNX reports, in my humble opinion. Valeant is a mess. They can't even sell Xifaxin. Lord help. Wait on $3's is my plan. Do your DD and make your plan.

  • ramsr14u2 by ramsr14u2 Jun 29, 2016 3:51 PM Flag

    Adding to shares every day down here. I stick by my thesis. We will get to manipulate the manipulators on this one. Do your own DD. I'm just a guy. Remember, on this one, "jack be nimble, jack be quick."

  • ramsr14u2 by ramsr14u2 Jun 29, 2016 1:06 PM Flag

    What to make of the PGNX share price is a question I get often of late. All I write here is just my opinion. I'm not a professional trader, but merely a guy. Do your own DD and place faith in nothing I write. It's just opinion. That said, I fully expect PGNX share price to continue to fall in the near term. The drag is questions around Relistor sales as a result of Valeant sales issues. In the grand scheme Relistor is a minor player for Valeant. Thus, how much faith can one place in the sales efforts when a major drug like Xifaxin has taken a big hit due to Valeant missteps. But the PDUFA, you say. Well, a drug approval does nothing if there isn't a sales force fervently behind the product. I'm not a buyer at these levels. I expect a retest of the $3.6-3.8 area. There I will begin to nibble.

    Cheers.

  • ramsr14u2 ramsr14u2 Jun 27, 2016 5:08 PM Flag

    LOL. Somewhere in between here, guys. APTO not a great stock, yet. Going from $6 to $2 does not equal great. However, there is a chance to manipulate the manipulators on this one. Hopefully, they start up the stalled drug trials soon. This will pop the share price. Buy, buy, buy at this level and sell the pop. Down the road after dilution buy your shares back. Just my opinions, but Ram knows.

  • Reply to

    Ram On APTO

    by ramsr14u2 Jun 10, 2016 2:12 PM
    ramsr14u2 ramsr14u2 Jun 11, 2016 7:57 PM Flag

    Also, there is going to be a capital raise. They have about two quarters of cash remaining exclusive of what it will take with the CrystalG deal. I have no idea of the structure there. Initially, I suspected Friday's run-up was associated with a raise of capital. Disecting that further, I doubt it. Still, someone jettisoned a boat load of shares Friday in the span of fifteen minutes. It has to give any new investors pause. Owning shares between $2-2.50 I will be looking to take advantage of any run up in the next little while. There could very well be a concerted effort to bump the share price into the mid $3's for a raise. I may sell that pump and buy back as shares react to dilution. Just ideas for you to contrast with your own. At the moment things are quite fluid here. If the hold on the drug is resolved the stock could pop and then dilution. Watch for that. In the great scheme owning and buying shares in the two's seems to bear little risk in my opinion. Good luck, and I will post more as I gain clarity. Cheers.

    ps. all I write is conjecture. Invest by your own plan according to your own dd.

  • Reply to

    Ram On APTO

    by ramsr14u2 Jun 10, 2016 2:12 PM
    ramsr14u2 ramsr14u2 Jun 11, 2016 8:37 AM Flag

    Five dollars is a very conservative level in my statistical model by the way. The model points to a considerably higher possibility, but I constrain my comments to an area that is in the three sigma range of relevance.

    As to more speculation. Oppenheimer and the timing of their reiteration of a very lofty $17 target sure coincide with yesterday's weird movements. What were those silly boys up to?

  • Reply to

    Ram On APTO

    by ramsr14u2 Jun 10, 2016 2:12 PM
    ramsr14u2 ramsr14u2 Jun 11, 2016 8:31 AM Flag

    Well, who really knows what the outcome will be. I simply rely upon my home grown statistical model to let me know when a stock's price is statistically attractive compared to the historical price trend. This one is a little different for me because there isn't much history with which to compare. However, I would think down side is limited. It is disconcerting that the drug hold has lasted seven months. Management needs to get off the pot, so to speak.

    All that said, it was strange stock action yesterday. Someone was able to get quite a premium for around $270k shares. My statistical model predicts a future price rise to the five dollar range. Thus, I was only willing to part with shares at a price above four. It's why I only got 3000 shares to go through. Then, throughout the day there was heavy buying to the tune of about a million shares. I have been a heavy buyer below $2.30 and yesterday, I bought a large block around $2.50 while someone was orchestrating the tank in price. It was all very odd, and though I can speculate, who really knows the reasoning behind all the machinations and a day that ended rather flat despite wild swings.

    Know one should take my opinion as gospel and should do their own thing according to their dd and plan. However, in the two's I'm a buyer. Cheers.

  • ramsr14u2 by ramsr14u2 Jun 10, 2016 2:12 PM Flag

    Someone has manipulated this stock mightily today. It began in the premarket with some very odd trades. I built a large position in this stock around $2. Had to manipulate the manipulator this morning and managed to sell them 3000 or so shares above $4. Wanted to sell more. I bought all those back and much, much more on the drop to $2.50 this morning. Someone is buying this stock hand over fist and managed to panic folks into selling via a false run-up and collapse. Silly boys. I do my best to take advantage of these folks and teach others how. I don't post much, but you can type my name in and see my success over the years. I go back to the days of dndn and much further back. This stock is a bargain in the two's. It's low volume most days, and you should be aware of that. It's hard to sell it due to the skinny daily volume, so you have to trade accordingly.

    Ram on.

ALKS
49.80+0.83(+1.69%)Jul 22 4:00 PMEDT