SQM, a lithium miner. I'm looking at the future lithium demand. There may not be enough mining capacity to supply it. This is very risky. For one they had a recent run up. Not saying anyone should buy now. I'm just saying that someone is going to make money off lithium and the only pure plays are miners. I will get only enough to make it worth tracking. And if I like it I will add more.
It amazes me that people look at future trends that occur over years and invest long in a stock that declines 10% a week as if there would be anything left of their investment by the time their prediction comes true. I don't even disagree with their predictions. I just think they have no sense of timing. I'm guessing they did terrible at math. And to think when I first saw this stock and looked at its 5 year chart and the number of reverse splits I had determine that this stock would be a short sellers dream come true. I can even remember thanking the guy who posted the symbol on the AGNC message board and asking him "why long, why not short?"
They focus on investing in future revenue growth. I have Amazon prime and im finding that I can find more and better Movie and TV show content there than on Netflix. I've almost stopped watching Netflix. And if you want to pay you can get anything that's being sold after its been in theaters. And once you pay it gets saved forever in their cloud. You own it but it doesn't clutter up your home.
We already know who they are nominating and investors don't care what demonstrators think. Since when has a demonstration impacted the profitability of most companies in the economy except in the case of a boycott?
However if the market does react it will be an opportunity to short. Because market events that are unrelated to company profits will dissipate quickly. They always do. Some things in human behavior are more predictable than others and this is one of them. People don't stop investing because something happened that has nothing to do with profitability. They always ignore this in a matter of days to a week.
That said the Fed scare of August 2015 now has me respecting Fed uncertainty more than before. But what brexit actually did was make the ability to predict future Fed actions more certain. It is now believed that the Fed won't raise rates in 2016 because they want to see the impact of brexit first. So even that issue has been removed from the table for the foreseeable future. So all the expected events are off the table and all we have now are the unexpected events. But that has always been true. And these unexpected events are usually of the short term scary kind. And are the bread and butter of the short seller.
Yeah, I have notice that liberals tend to have violent tendencies and use intimidation tactics to keep their piers from veering from the "true" path. Except for the violence part it kind of reminds me of religion. Like how an self proclaimed atheist would get treated if he said such a thing in a church. So I get what you just said. It is completely not unexpected by people who have noticed this kind of hostile behavior from liberals. You are just telling us what we already know.
I guess liberals believe that other people want to be owned. But I think that they are wrong about this. Believe it or not, if you were to come to a group of conservatives with your extremism you would actually be treated respectfully. They would respect your right to disagree with them. And that is how it should be. People should act like adults don't you think?
TVIX will decline forever. CS even says that it will decline forever by design. It is always going down except when there is a volatility spike but CS says in their own words that TVIX is headed to zero. But it never reaches zero. It is like this. If you have a string and keep cutting it in half you will always be left with a small piece that you can cut in half again. And that is why it never reaches zero. But for a guy who bought $10,000 of TVIX a few years ago whose value is now worth pennies, it looks like zero to him. At some point you don't have enough value to own a single share and it gets sold.
The article I read is that GS was saying that both stocks and bonds are over priced. But it didn't say they were recommending that people sell. People will buy over valued stocks for a long time. Are you sure you aren't adding your own "read between the lines" assessment of what you think this implies?
I short TVIX but only at the top of a volatility spike. Do it now and you have no padding. It's less of a sure thing. You can short now but you better shot a lot less.
Better hope that the implied volatility doesn't go down.
Predicting a market decline because the VIX is low is no more logical than assuming you will have bad luck because a black cat crossed your path.
potential losses on selling a straddle are infinite. You can lose in both directions. I assumed he was talking about buying.
I doubt he is as familiar on the specifics of volatility investing as we are as he has to focus on all types of investments. But I thought I would at least investigate his recommendation.
I talked to a guy I know who owns a brokerage and he seemed to think that a straddle would be better than a calendar put spread. I haven't looked into it but I was thinking it might be OK for the short term on the initial volatility spike but it would be expensive buying both call and put contracts. Anyone investigate this?
Possibly sooner. I don't like to make predictions but this stock is declining very rapidly. Could be that there are fewer futures traders that are willing to own it.