Atpl, et al: Certainly sounds right to me. Another thought: Whatever Yahoo did to these boards has worked out for us - leaving us alone here to work together for the benefit of all.
Kool: "For all I know they could be surrendering their whole holding to a buyer that the BOD has been rejecting in order to get their way." A similar thought occurred to me a few minutes ago: Maybe this is a threat, or an actual move, to sell their entire stake at a premium to another entity. That has not been their style in the past, so far as I know, but we shareholders also would benefit, at least to some extent, though probably not to the same extent as in an actual, full takeover.
In any regard, though the market may overreact downward tomorrow, I can't conjure any way that this filing presents or foreshadows really bad news for us.
Now, back under my regular ID, after thinking this through, here's my logic tree. I hope I'm not fooling myself; if you think I am, please tell me:
- The Bakers just bought a bunch of stock at around these prices and they're not the type to suddenly change their minds and flip their shares. Also, as we've noted, they own too many shares to dump them or even really sell them slowly without seriously depressing the value of their own asset. And, as insiders, they'd be taking a helluva risk to sell their shares or take any related action based on information that has not yet been made public.
- They registered for future sale every single share they own. This suggests to me that they are finished buying for now - and probably for quite some time. Sure, they could turn around and buy more tomorrow, but what's the point? If so, they would have waited before registering these shares and/or they'd just eventually have to go through the hassle of registering the new shares for sale.
- They were under no obligation to have SGEN file the registration documents now. They could have done it next month, next year or next decade.
- Ergo, there's a reason why they're doing this now. The only basis I can think of for them doing so is so they can be poised to participate in the sale of the company in the takeover that we've long expected - a transaction that now may be coming into view for them.
atpl1959, sorry. Our posts crossed. We have the very same questions/concerns. Hoping that others - including maybe the company? - can help us sort it out.
Those SEC filings tonight are somewhat worrisome - or somewhat promising - or neither. The way I read it, the company is fulfilling its obligation to register the Bakers' shares - all of them - for sale at some point in the future. So...why now?
1. Just to complete the obligation and have the paperwork in place? 2. Because the Bakers have lost faith and/or are thinking about slowly cashing out? Or 3. Because a buyout offer is on the table, or soon will be, and the Bakers first must register their stock before they can sell it?
About as long as you've been 22? :) Or...perhaps 47 is not an age. Perhaps it's a birth year. Not that I'm necessarily saying that it is, necessarily. :)
I've given up trying to handicap the chances of a timely takeout of SGEN (frankly, every morning for the last three years I've been a little surprised that I didn't wake up to overnight news of a buyout bid), but 1. I'm absolutely certain that it will occur at some point in the not-too-distant future and 2. I agree that this rally feels very much different than prior rallies and 3. If your post and this comment jinx that, it's on you, not me. :)
Twitter certainly has been buzzing with rumors to that effect. With $15 billion, Takeda could have SGEN at $100 per share and still have some pocket change. Other suitors also are being mentioned. I'm too tired to look it up, but one commentator says the Bakers now have 25 per cent of their money in SGEN. Add it all up and...good things are heading our way.
Atpl, your understanding of the rule appears to be far superior to my seat-of-the-pants assumptions regarding it, so I defer to your interpretation. Put more succinctly: I think you're right. :)
It'll be interesting to see what happens today. Upside possibility (common sense): The Bakers are continuing to demonstrate amazing confidence in their SGEN investment and their recent purchases accounted for only a fraction of the high volume of recent days, so let's all buy!. Downside possibility (short-tern nonsense/playing with disaster): The Bakers can't act on inside information, so their recent purchases may indicate that no buyout inquiries are currently being weighed, so let's try to short this again.
I also agree with Kool. I think some of this is short covering, but most of it reflects the value-added that we expected to arrive right around now. And, yes, my mental arithmetic also starts at $100 per share for the inevitable buyout - and then moves northward with time. Like many of you, I've been in SGEN for a decade or so now, and it feels like the payoff is approaching, just over the horizon.
(In fact, where's everyone now.)
SGEN closes at $50.50, the high of the day, the high of the year, the high of the last 52 weeks (and a few bucks below the all time high) on extremely high volume. Shorts are capitulating.
Actually, I didn't know there was a new board, but I surely don't miss the multi-aliased troll. With things going as well as they have with SGEN, I figured he was just laying low again. That, plus the general lack of activity here since Yahoo screwed this up.
Morgan Stanley’s Andrew S. Berens believes Seattle Genetics, Inc.'s Adcetris is a $2 billion products, with growth primarily being driven by higher usage in transplant settings, as well as a move to front-line lymphoma treatment. Berens initiated coverage of the company with an Overweight rating and price target of $60.
The analyst expects Adcetris to grow 16 percent annually from its current sales levels, to reach a peak of $2.5 billion by 2030.
This happened today, dealing another blow to remaining shorts: :$SGEN Morgan Stanley initiates price target $60 overweight
Too often in the past, good news temporarily depressed the stock, as players played. With more trial readouts on the way, I have a feeling that those days are just about over.
Takeda and Seattle Genetics Announce Positive Data from Phase 3 ALCANZA Clinical Trial of ADCETRIS® (Brentuximab Vedotin) for CD30-Expressing Cutaneous T-Cell Lymphoma
-Randomized Phase 3 Clinical Trial with ADCETRIS Met Primary Endpoint, Demonstrating Highly Statistically Significant Improvement in Rate of Objective Response Lasting at Least Four Months-
Yes and no. Yes, in dollar terms, Wednesday probably was the best upside day during the 10 years or so I've been invested in SGEN. This week's earnings report and pipeline updates were just outstanding. No, I haven't found another board yet, even as Yahoo seems intent on killing its investor message boards.