Yes and no. Yes, in dollar terms, Wednesday probably was the best upside day during the 10 years or so I've been invested in SGEN. This week's earnings report and pipeline updates were just outstanding. No, I haven't found another board yet, even as Yahoo seems intent on killing its investor message boards.
Other Yahoo financial message boards have been drastically changed in recent days to a format that no one likes and that discourages conversations. (Yahoo always can be depended upon to make things worse. Making things worse is what Yahoo does best.) So, this SGEN message board soon may disappear. Anyone who is not the multi-aliased troll Ricky/fsout/mauihope/etc/etc have any suggestions as to other boards where sane SGEN shareholders can meet?
FWIW, the often obnoxious and sometimes right Adam Feuerstein of The Street is tweeting this tonight: "Everyone better get up extra early tomorrow morning." And this: "The over/under on total dollar amount of biotech M&A deals announced tomorrow morning is $68 billion. Play your bets."
Pretty impressive: Data were reported from 53 frontline unfit AML patients with a median age of 75 years and intermediate or adverse cytogenetic risk who had declined intensive therapy. Forty-five percent of patients had evidence of underlying myelodysplasia. Key findings presented by Dr. Fathi include:
- Of 49 efficacy-evaluable patients treated with 33A combined with either azacitidine or decitabine, the overall response rate was 76 percent. Complete remission (CR) or complete remission with incomplete platelet or neutrophil recovery (CRi) was observed in 35 patients (71 percent). The remission rate (CR+CRi) was similar between the two 33A and HMA combination treatment groups (71 percent combined with azacitidine and 72 percent combined with decitabine).
- Responses were observed in higher-risk patients, with remissions achieved in 16 of 22 patients (73 percent) with underlying myelodysplasia and 15 of 18 patients (83 percent) with adverse cytogenetics.
- Patients who achieved minimal residual disease included eight of 19 (42 percent) CR patients and five of 15 (33 percent) CRi patients.
- The median overall survival for all patients in the phase 1 trial is interim and expected to evolve. The estimated median overall survival for the first 25 patients enrolled in the study was 12.75 months, with a median follow-up of 12.58 months.
- Median relapse-free survival was 7.7 months (range, 0.0+ and 11.3+) with 27 patients (51 percent) remaining alive and on study as of last follow-up. The 30- and 60-day mortality rates were two and eight percent, respectively.
- The most common treatment-related adverse events of any grade occurring in 20 percent or more of patients were fatigue (57 percent), thrombocytopenia (53 percent), nausea (49 percent), febrile neutropenia (45 percent), and constipation and anemia (42 percent each)....
It's clear now that last week's run-up and this week's crawl-up have nothing to do with the Bakers. The Form 4 they filed today was for a relative handful of shares that Felix received as a director. So, last week's action was due to another big buyer, who hasn't yet reached the 5 percent reporting threshold, or to the usual and mysterious "market forces."
Well, I also agree (not with the Trump part) and I'm on record as opining that the Bakers are where they want to be in SGEN and are just sitting back now and waiting for the right bid at the right price at the right time. Guess we'll see tonight - if no Form 4 from them by tonight - it probably wasn't them.
Just a WAG, but I'm thinking that the Bakers have their SGEN stake right about where they want it now and are in the posture of sitting back and waiting for the right offer at the right price at the right time.
Pretty routine stuff, imo, and the modest dilution already was authorized long ago. It certainly does represent additional confidence in the outcome of the trials. Also, the careful delineation of what would happen (will happen) upon being acquired...that certainly seems noteworthy. In fact, one could argue that this sort of thing is arranged - and announced - to bolster employee loyalty ahead of and during acquisition.
Ya know, I don't think you're dreaming, assuming the company remains independent that long. But given the Bakers' recent purchases, their track record and Big Pharma's desperate needs for pipelines and science, I'm guessing that SGEN will be absorbed by the Borg within a year or so.
Kool, if I'm reading it right, Abbvie paid a 100 percent premium for Stemcentrx - that is, it doubled that company's market value overnight. So...yeah, I'd agree. That deal sets something of a floor for the inevitable buyout of the much-farther-ahead SGEN, imo.