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Francesca's Holdings Corporation Message Board

renmanaz 22 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 1, 2016 11:18 AM Member since: Jun 20, 1998
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  • Reply to

    PACB---securities law matter

    by renmanaz Jun 30, 2016 4:56 PM
    renmanaz renmanaz Jul 1, 2016 11:18 AM Flag

    It has to done in a "timely" manner so as not to theoretically give anyone a trading advantage. I say theoretically because this guideline seems to be ignored by some companies.

    Regarding PACB, I am assuming that were they to experience a relationship change with Roche or a significant change in their second half of the year forecast for revenues (remember, they told us that sales were back-ended into this year's second half), they would have to make an announcement as soon as they became aware of the change,

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Tycho Peterson is sell side analyst

    by msg_stock Jul 1, 2016 9:44 AM
    renmanaz renmanaz Jul 1, 2016 10:59 AM Flag

    Like the song, "It's all in the Game." Wall Street does not exist for small (retail) investors. Does anyone really think these guys care about small buyers/sellers of perhaps, at most, a few thousand shares of stock when they can generate commissions from huge short sale recommendation that they "orchestrate" with quasi-secretive tips to large institutions/hedge funds, knowing that they will get the other side of those trades after the damage has been done?
    With retail commissions down to next to nothing, these anal-ysts need a better source of income to keep their jobs. Overhead is not covered by commissions of $7.95 a pop.
    And, if the anal-ysts aren't working for the hedge guys, institutional money, then they're working for the companies they back though underwritings, mergers, acquisitions, etc., etc. That's how they make enough to stay employed.

  • Under current SEC regs, a company is required to disclose any matter deemed to be "material."

    Taking this literally, I am left to assume that there is nothing material to report....or if there is/was and the company failed to timely disclose said information, they would be in violation of the securities laws. This leaves me to believe that what we are witnessing is either some manipulation by shorts, market-makers, potential suitors, etc.

    FWIT, I added today at $6.98...I strategized that the end of the quarter, as I've previously posted, can be a time of extreme and unusual volatility. Hope I'm right.

  • I think the very recent selloff is primarily institutional quarter-end selling to facilitate not having to show this loser in their reports to clients/investors. If I am correct, we should soon see a reasonably strong rebound as selling is replaced by bargain hunters.

  • to the end of Q3 in 2015. That strongly suggests "window dressing" going on...selling by funds so as not having to show losers at quarter-end.
    Shameful practice but it happens all the time.

  • Reply to

    sellers

    by inder62401 Jun 29, 2016 2:57 PM
    renmanaz renmanaz Jun 29, 2016 3:41 PM Flag

    End of quarter activity by funds, orgs. who do not want to show losers in a quarter-end reporting period. In reality, the real number is the asset value per share/unit....not the end of quarter holdings which can be easily massaged.

    Once we enter Q 3, I expect bargain hunters to get back in; in fact, with a 3-day settlement, they may already be initiating or building positions in PACB.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • renmanaz by renmanaz Jun 29, 2016 1:34 PM Flag

    If you will pull up a monthly chart of ILMN (a pretty direct comparison to PACB) and take a look at the former's first five to six years as a public company, you will see rather similar volatility. We have to remember that both companies were unprofitable in their early years and that probably accounts for much of the volatility.

    My point is that we should be just fine but we'll have to ride out the bumps and bruises along the way. If you believe in PACB (as I do) consider what we're experiencing as the price of admission to own what should be a great investment in 2-5 years...we just have to let the shorts, or whoever chooses to play with the stock, to have their short-term fun before we get back on track which I'm sure we will do.

    Last point, biotech investing is not for the meek.

  • renmanaz by renmanaz Jun 29, 2016 11:08 AM Flag

    Makes this look like the final purge before (hopefully) a sharp reversal/rebound.

  • Reply to

    Debt buyback

    by henryaldrich1 Jun 14, 2016 8:29 AM
    renmanaz renmanaz Jun 14, 2016 9:37 AM Flag

    A very smart move.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    this is a minor setback

    by mrkgffn Jun 6, 2016 4:01 PM
    renmanaz renmanaz Jun 9, 2016 8:45 AM Flag

    Glesatinib was able to produce tumor regression in 10 out of the 11 patients who used the therapy, which was an encouraging result. Unfortunately, nine of those 11 patients experienced bioavailability and tolerability issues from the treatment, resulting in the need to interrupt their therapy and lower their dose.
    Apparently, the culprit was an inert ingredient that is already in process of being changed

    To help address these tolerability issues, Mirati has confirmed that it will be using a new formulation of glesatinib in their phase 2 study. Management believes that this new formulation has a good chance at fixing those exposure and tolerability issues.

    Mirati Therapeutics CEO Charles Baum commented: We believe that the combination of improved tolerability and bioavailability of the new formulation will allow patients to remain on the intended dose, extend the duration of treatment and possibly increase response rates.

    This new formulation is already in use in the company's currently ongoing phase 2 trial.

    Of course, why wait for results. Wall Street saw the opportunity to shake down investors for some easy commission business so they raise the white flag, watch the price basically get cut in half while racking up a nice few days of commission business. In a few weeks, they will "come to their senses, reissue buy ratings and generate additional commissions as the lemmings pile back into the stock....that's the way the game is played.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Looks like north of $10 very soon and $12 by end of week. Could be a very good trade...as the selling was way overdone.

  • Reply to

    Btn

    by rjyea May 26, 2016 1:05 PM
    renmanaz renmanaz Jun 7, 2016 5:02 PM Flag

    BTN has basically moved sideways for 3 1/2 years and now has made a new high within that time frame. The chart is telling me that we're going higher. perhaps by a significant amount after being in a holding pattern for so long....all the aggressive money has long-since departed....they'll be back if BTN continues its move....and adds news along the way.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    I wish more insiders jump in

    by yekafena_sharkom Jun 1, 2016 1:55 PM
    renmanaz renmanaz Jun 1, 2016 2:15 PM Flag

    Agree...$10 will still be cheap relative to other biotechs.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Btn

    by rjyea May 26, 2016 1:05 PM
    renmanaz renmanaz Jun 1, 2016 1:24 PM Flag

    The chart is telling me that something is up...based upon recent moves, investors/speculators appear to like what management is doing.

  • STS gets hit very hard a couple of days ago. WHY?

    A few insider sales of relatively insignificant amounts of stock and panic ensues. Keep in mind that there were very, very modest amounts of shares relative to total holdings.

    No mention was made, so I'll make it, that there has been a significant increase in earnings estimates for both this year and next year. Granted, there's only one analyst but, for what it's worth, his numbers are about in line with my own numbers. If so, STS is still significantly undervalued, though, obviously, not as much as three months ago.

    In the last CC, management spoke about possibly making an acquisition in Canada. That would be a smart move as the company would like to expand its footprint across a broader geographci region.

    Finally, let's not forget that STS would make someone a great acquisition candidate...based upon my estimates, I can see $15-18 as a decent (fair) takeout price.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • renmanaz renmanaz May 23, 2016 11:24 AM Flag

    Hold your breath....it's on the way....and, speaking of "on the way," shouldn't you be getting on your way. You add nothing constructive.

  • Reply to

    Canadian #$%$

    by rjyea May 20, 2016 9:04 AM
    renmanaz renmanaz May 20, 2016 9:50 AM Flag

    I don't get this "acquisition" either.

  • Reply to

    Any news????

    by greatdayisback2013 May 18, 2016 10:20 AM
    renmanaz renmanaz May 18, 2016 12:01 PM Flag

    Biotechs are off about 35% from prior highs (IBB as a proxy) and SGEN along with them. The differentiation is that SGEN has a pipeline with three possible blockbuster drugs, a relatively modest valuation relative to that pipeline....AND the full backing (30% ownership) of the Baker Brothers organization.
    That makes for a pretty compelling opportunity.

  • Just saw this afternoon that the Baker Brothers Investments reduced their holding in LIFE during the first quarter of 2016..
    For several years, I have followed the BBs as a tag-along partner and find it distressing that they opted to lower their position in LIFE. In my eyes, these guys are excellent assessors of companies, management teams and drugs....so I do not take lightly their reduction.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • renmanaz renmanaz May 13, 2016 11:51 AM Flag

    A stock can only go down 100% at the max. You hardly come across as a math genius.

FRAN
12.55-0.31(-2.41%)Jul 28 4:00 PMEDT