can you show where source of information for this statement is?
did a paste of relevant information on $ available through digital advertising from politics:
Rubicon Project's recently formed political and advocacy team that was created to attract some of the estimated $11 billion that political parties are expected to spend during 2016. The company noted that more than $1 billion of which is expected to be spent on digital advertisements.
I imagine that even if 10 % comes our way this would make huge impact on earnings !
I am thinking that eventually instead of corporations in stock market buying their own shares to prop up price, that they will use it to grow.
Also banks will eventually lend ( once it is worth it to them at higher interests) and this will lead to more economic growth.
I think it is related to people trying to go "safety" one last time while stock market corrects to take into account interest rate increase and lack of further easy money.
eventually, though , yield curve ( thirty year versus 3 month interest rate difference ) should go up as economy and inflation increases.
people will not want just 3 % on thirty year when economy and inflation improve.
I agree exports should jump.
I think Argentina will have a revival or interest and capital , that was being invested in outside countries due to distrust and poor management by government will come back to Argentina.
If oil starts leveling and increasing slightly then YPF should do well.
also retailers , such as APSA may improve.
how do you think that having more market based economy in Argentina will affect this and other Argentinian stocks? Will devaluation of peso make this company do better by cutting production costs?
analysts are no better than tossing a coin.
often they change their recommendations AFTER the fact.
I recall once owning EWZ from 38-100, at 38 they had this at F rating, and at 100 they had it at A.
once I saw the A I sold it (knew they would be too late to party ) and then share price went to 40 again.
Do your own due diligence and do not listen to either message board or analysts.
An example of using your head is looking at price of oil, and knowing that profits of airlines are going to be high ( they did not lower their fairs yet ) they are saving 30% of there fixed costs. ( the ones that do not by futures but buy fuel at current cost)
wait until this down turn in the stock market ( going to likely happen soon) and then using some saved cash to buy cheap shares of whatever you think may be good buy.
^AXTWEN is the 20 year plus treasury bond index.
in the last five days bond price (all it lets me look at is five day on yahoo) went down .0073 which would translate to 2.2 % increase in TMV , but it actually went up during this time 6.7 % , which is three times it should have.
I thought initially it was following ^TYX which is incorrect.
a etf that follows ^AXTWEN and is easier to chart is TLT.
in the last six months TMV went down 7.5% when it should have been 3.3 %. so did lose 4 % extra due to leverage effect. actually not bad.
if direction of TLT is down then TMV should play out well over the next six months.
I believe that short term rates are set by fed but that longer term rate depends on factors of supply and demand of investors. investors have to decide whether if they lend money and save for their 3-5 % for example 30 year return it will be enough to compensate for inflation or or other investments they could do. as inflation expectation and growth.
In other words the government by buying bonds lowered the rates via bidding the price of bonds up and interest down. but if for example , now that there is no longer a bond buying fed, there will be less demand for bonds and price will lower and interest rate will increase to increase demand.
this also explains the yield curve of when the economy is improving , people demand more return for longer term investment.
connection is that as yields rise on long term treasuries, if you hold treasury with lower rate, old treasuries bonds have less value.
example if 30 year is 3 % now and it goes up to 4.5 %,
then value goes down by 1/3 or only .666 of original value if you sell it and need money.
reason is that it takes about 24 years to double your capital with 3 % interest rate, and wiht 4.5 % rate it takes 16 years.
therefore value now is 16/24 of what it was before of the original rate.
would you want to buy treasury with 3 % rate if the current rate is 4.5 % ? ( in above scenario)
this may be true for short rates( temporarily), but for thirty year rates, if economy is indeed picking up, they will go up in interest and down in price.
yes , you are right .
at some time someone has to pay the piper.
question is who , whom or what.
I think you will eventually see inflation rear its head since loans that have not been payed will create risk and this will be rewarded by higher interest demands.
one thing I am not happy with is that etf's tbf, tbt, and tmv, are not tracking well with increasing interest rates over the last year.
it may give higher return if the volatility of interest rates resolves and there is a more smooth increase up.
In other words I am getting the direction right but not being rewarded , yet.
I would like to apologize , I put up graphs of ^TYX and TMV and it should have gone up 13 % last 5 days and went up only 8 %,
one month chart even worse, only went up slightly more than 1:1 instead of 3:1.
yes it is broken.
Not sure if there is less volatility and more constant increase in 30 year interest rate if it will follow more correctly or just lost .
any how have lots in it now so will hold a bit longer.