Cramer is good for beginners and getting the background on how the market works. He does pick some winners but also has some real dogs, as do most of us. He tends to forget and gloss over those. From a Macro perspective I respect his views, from an individual stock perspective- do your own diligence. On KMx- I am not sure why KMP and KMR on the "merger" news and went to close to $100 but with Europe teetering and China stalling, I think oil goes lower still. But that is my perspective of course and a very good chance of being wrong. The one lesson I learned this cycle is take the loss, sold VNR calls for a $5K loss back when it was $28.5 and fought the "it will come back...I am not wrong" voices in my head. Just take the loss (5% on stock 10% on options for me) and move on.
I could be wrong here but that is when it all closes including the additional 2M shares. The 13M shares certainly hit the market today- simply look at the volume
NYMT appears to be heavily leveraged (10x) in Agency paper. Most of it appears to be 15 year (looking at their latest presentation). Question is- with the taper coming- how insulated will NYMT portfolio actually be given some is already baked in and 15 year is less sensitive than 30 year paper.
We typically run thru Sept but with the bad quarter an no pre announce i think people are spooked.
I am long calls Jan15 28 and 23's but I am not venturing further- no avg down
Hi- I recall someone offering it up- I tried to make one- the logic is correct (based on what Doc has on his blog) but I am not getting the right results- I tried ARR
I listened/ing- I thought it was ok.
GK just said they have recovered some of the BV since Q close.
However you can tell they know it sucked pretty bad.
How you figure?
Maybe it's too early and I need more coffee
Perhaps- but do not think we will dip below 29. It will hinge on the conference call at 11. If there is alot of negativity- yeah i think we will see 28. If not we could close over 30- I will buy below 29
I have been noticing there has been almost no time premium and at times negative time premium on the Jan 2015 28's and 27's when compared to Jan 14's or even some 2013 calls. I dumped 40 of them today and still hold 140 calls- planning on holding the rest thru next ex unless we go over 34 in next couple weeks- I think SPO would come then if we breech 34 around the earnings date
Wondering if anyone has noticed this.
Hi Doc- I took some time this afternoon and read your email. Thanks.
I did the analysis on AGNC and found something interesting. If you simply apply the 3% rule only- you are a winner what appears to be 90% of the time if you hold for 5 days.
if you ignore the months of march and September- looks like you can hold for a couple weeks.
What i did for AGNC is to make the Glad rules met "yes" No" column a hard "yes" by removing the equations and make it simply yes- then to the right calculate the earnings/losses over time. Use conditional formatting and zoom out.
Willing to send spreadsheet to see what you think
Ya know-will Soap box a little. This is a free forum- dare I say to those who berate/mock people who contribute for free here- please follow "you get what you pay for" mantra and move onto another board.
For those who appreciate the contributions here if, for nothing else, stimulating the gray matter between our ears, I appreciate your posts. Especially Doc- I mean #$%$- he is not getting paid people. He freely advocates input- so give some constructive input. I have my GLAD spreadsheet open and using that gray matter a bit and trying to see what I can positively contribute. it's my choice to follow-lead or like the last 4 months- sit on sidelines until this week