Disney has struggled with coming up with an original series - The Long Ranger, Tomorrowland, John Carter & Prince of Persia were not successful. Alice TLG also not, although the first was. Bridge of Spies did make money, so I wouldn't slam that. I also think Tron L did ok. And the Finest Hours certainly wasn't successful, although I thought it was very good.
But you must take chances. The first Pixar was a risk. The live animation (Maleficent and then Cinderella) were risks, but that has taken off (i.e, Jungle Book may well do $1 billion, and watch out with Beauty and the Beast). Disney Animation has had its ups and downs, but it has had a string of successes that can't be denied. I think next year Disney is being a little more careful on it the tentpole movies it has on board.
But I wouldn't say that Iron Man 2 (which Disney did not make) or Avenger 2 (which still made over $1.4 billion) or Thor 2 (which did better than Thor 1) did poorly. And the Captain America sequels certainly did well.
You have two sequel in the Marvel Universe coming up - Guardians of the Galaxy and Avengers 3 coming up. They will tell you a little more (also the next Spider Man - which Disney has a large hand in - will tell you something about the Marvel touch).
But Disney is swooning a little right now - Finding Dory is dropping, Alice is not gaining any legs, and BFG is not doing too much. I think the Pete's Dragon might be well positioned to capture the end of the season - maybe this can be a nice hit.
I have heard the same and have the same hopes for the box office, although I don't believe that Disney will break even on this movie.
Disney is going to be a little more selective in the future. They may be better spaced next year with a few better sure shots.. But the three duds - Finest Hours, Alice TLG, and BFG, are dragging Disney down - thank goodness for SWTFA, Zootopia, Jungle Book, Captain America, and Finding Dory.
I do think that FD is beginning to fall. It may break $20 million this weekend, but that's $5 - 10 million less than some thought it was going to do this weekend. It breaking $500 million domestic is going to be clsoe - the weekday numbers this week will be key.
A merger between Disney and Netflix would be a little like the merger between Time Warner and AOL. But I would concede that Netflix is a better company than AOL.
I am a little surprised too. I thought that Iger would increase the dividend in order to express confidence.
But I think that Disney is bent on buying back its stock. It has prices that Disney believes is low. It might as well buyback at these low prices, and not do anything too much to increase prices. They are confident and have long term goals.
And, by the way, Finding Dory did bang up business on Tuesday. Around $14.5 million. A bump of over 40% from the day earlier . I think it will hit $475-495 domestic gross, but with a solid week this week (if it can garner $50 million during the weekdays this week) and a solid 4 day weekend (maybe $55 - 60 million), it has a chance of breaking $500 million (but if it falls short, I'm very happy with $475 million).
Just to update you (who might be listening), FD did a little over $10 million yesterday. That, although good for the 11th day, and this is a blockbuster, the question of whether it has over $400 million by this time next week is a little more doubtful. And, the only reason that is important, is that determines whether it may break $500 million.
I love the number games with the movies, and, added with the booming nature of some of these movies, they make fun for me to discuss and predict. But let's not forget this - if Finding Dory does $1.25 billion world wide, in this fiscal year, Disney will have 5 movies that have done at least $1 billion (I am assuming that Jungle Book will break that mark).
That is a tremendous feat. Yes, it has had two duds - the Finest Hours (which was a very good movie) and Alice TTLG (which has a chance of breaking $350 million - which may mean a break even as this movie cost $175 million to make).
With these numbers, Disney, for the first time for any studio in many, if any, years, is producing a profit that one analyst stated was 20%. They have misses, but to have 5 movies that have done over $1 million is a real accomplishment.
I have, and will, give insight into Disney's other segments - licensing, Parks, and ESPN, but the movies are quantifiable on a daily/weekly basis.
while we are waiting to see the weekend figures and how close it puts it to $300 million, I saw an interesting switch in the remaining Disney movies that are drawing box office numbers. Zootopia, which had seen a relative boom (approaching $1 million last weekend and having numbers over $100,000 during the weekdays), seems to have fallen on Friday (usually a nice day for an increase). I don't know why? But it may be returning to more normal numbers for a movie being out for over 16 weeks.
And Captain America and Jungle Book seemed to have slightly stronger numbers at this time - both were falling along traditional trends (Captain more than JB). Maybe both will show some legs at this late date (although JB had nice legs already).
Unfortunately, due to recent events, there has been a surge of fire arm purchases in the last two weeks. I think that the British vote only strokes those fears. Smith and Wesson had a little increase, too, on Friday, although SW has had a real bump in the last two weeks, while BGFV hasn't seen any increase until the last two days.
I wonder if BGFV has seen an increase in fire arm sales, and, if there is increased traffic, if it flowed over into other sales.
Since they issued a dividend last year around July, I would be very surprised if they didn't announce another dividend, perhaps even with a few pennies added in. And, they might take the opportunity to announce their intentions on stock buybacks.
And they do seem to be on target for about $75 million this weekend. A little short of the Box Office Mojo $80+ million, but a lot more than it was predicting early in the week (about $60 million). It should be around $290 by Sunday's close. Next week will be interesting - will it average $12.5 million on the weekdays? (which would garner another $50 m), and will it stay strong on the Fourth of July weekend and garner another $50 million plus putting it near $400 million?
It is going to cost Disney some because, when there is economic turmoil and downturn, people cut back. That means that there may be some drop off at Disney World, particularly when one factors the depressed pound.
Ironically, it might give some Britians the idea of visiting Paris Disney because it is cheaper - for tickets, travel, and even the exchange rate - wouldn't that be something if Paris Disney began turning a profit???
This is a buying opportunity, plain an simple.
It may still go down. You may see some numbers under 95. But it won't stay long because Disney will be using all that money from Finding Dory to buy back stock.
I am glad that ESPN backed out of their deal to own a part of DraftKings (or was it Fan Duel?).
But, on the other hand, this will mean that these enterprises will become a part of the frame work of sports and the media. The media will benefit from a lot of advertising from these enterprises. And, ESPN will gain an additional benefit because all those young people who are anxious to bet on all these sports will also need to watch it every second for every update on a consistent basis. And the only way to do that is to be able to watch it live. And the only way to watch it live is to get cable or some other package that has ESPN.
Take that you BTIG analyst who thinks paying money to be able to provide a real outlet for quality live sports is a horrible thing.
And compare the South Korea figures for Jungle Book so far with the South Korean figures for Zootopia - about $13 million to about $7 million. I'm not going to say that this ratio is going to continue (which would translate into a total of about $60 million for JB in S. Korea), but $40 million is possible (another $30 million), plus another $10 million here and elsewhere (which would mean a total of about $965 million before Japan opens. And Japan is going to do better than S Korea. These numbers could edge out Zootopia.
They could have $300 million by the end of the weekend. Box Office Mojo is suggesting a $80 - $100 million weekend. That seems awful strong, but it has done wonderful numbers on Monday (19.5), Tuesday (23!!) and Wednesday (18). That puts it at over $195 million, with a good chance of over $210 at the end of today. With $80 million this weekend, that would mean $290, and give it a chance of $400 million by the end of the July 4th weekend - these are monster numbers!!
They may be just too good to be true.
I wouldn't give up on Jungle Book. I think it will get at least another $15 million in South Korea, and it is still gleaning money elsewhere overseas. And it is still picking up money here. I bet it has at least $950 million when it opens in Japan on August 11th. Remember, it has done well in Asia.
Let him tweet. When the young sports fan realizes that the only way for him/her to watch their favorite team live is to have ESPN, and that means spending money on some medium, ESPN will see a new expansion. In the interim, Disney will be buying back stock at a lower price, which will mean that they can buy more than they expected - and that will enhance the earnings per share, and then the stock price, and, with a shortage of stock, you will see a nice surge.
Disney has four segments - movies, licensing, parks, and media. Three are expanding very nicely. The fourth will eventually expand too. BTIG is entitled to their opinion. I just expect them to eventually be proven wrong, and to suffer the consequences.
It did over $23 million on Tuesday - that after over $19.5 million on Monday. Although Tuesday is usually an up day due to discounts, these blockbusters, on the first week, usually see a drop due to such a big first weekend. This could mean $300 million before the July 4th weekend, and maybe as much as $350 million by the end of that weekend. This will mean a final figure nicely over $400 million, and maybe even $500 could be in its sights (I would guess that a $450 million is a real possibility).
And Zootopia has been nicely up the past week. Obviously, at this late date, we are talking about small change - but it has a chance at moving its nearly $340 million to $350 million.
And Alice TtLG, which is obviously a disappointment, is still hanging in there. It could wind up with $90 million, with a chance of $100 million.
If there is any disappointment, I would say that Captain America and Jungle Book are steadily fading away. No bump for them with the schools closing.
The only question I have is when will Disney break $2 billion domestic. Is BFG and Pete's Dragon going to be able to push it to $2 billion before the end of the summer?
But Tuesday's box office for Finding Dory is plenty to crow about, and takes away the sting from Alice TtLG
And they did over $19.5 million on Monday. They really might have $250 million by the end of the weekend. And that means nearly $300 million (or at least $270 million by the Fourth of July weekend), and plainly somewhere around $300 million by the end of the weekend of July 4th. It all depends on how much BFG hurts Finding Dory. Wouldn't it be nice to see them both boom during the weekend of the 4th.
These are usually errors, or items correcting errors. Unless there is a lot of volume, and/or some after hours news, I wouldn't put any credibility into it.