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Pfizer Inc. Message Board

royco 13 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 11, 2016 2:52 PM Member since: Jun 24, 2000
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  • Reply to

    Glad to be all out

    by madeinclay Jul 5, 2016 11:04 PM
    royco royco Jul 11, 2016 2:52 PM Flag

    Jam,
    Understand your take, and all recent worthless expirations were the $20’s, which were never touched (unfortunately for many of us).
    Last batch of 19 contracts sold were Sept. 16 $25's. An old acquaintance in the Accounting field stated a point of interest and sound advice regarding all things economic and financial ... "The Law of Addition". Whether Spending or Income, they all add up,
    for good or bad. While many here hold on as the Conversion vote approaches, the cost of time-related dead money (share price in a somewhat predictable trading range) was at least somewhat offset by picking up regular dividend-like payments for the better part of 2 1/2 years. That was simply a chosen strategy as a hedge due to Murphy's Law feelings about these guys running this "collapse". Hope it's not necessary very shortly, but if history is any indication...

  • Reply to

    Glad to be all out

    by madeinclay Jul 5, 2016 11:04 PM
    royco royco Jul 11, 2016 1:40 PM Flag

    As this plods along at a slower than tortoise pace, kept from posting for a few months while selling calls here and on Micron to beat the band. I fully empathize with the boys ( fair assumption that there are no lady posters on this thread) since this stock has been stuck in the mud due to the execs utter disregard for our interests but which has resulted in a trader's delight, now priced just 9 cents above its July 15, 2013 close.

    I keep wondering what the f%^% Klarman ( the other "SK"--Seth Klarman) and Soros have been telling their Loyal investors..... I also reviewed selling covered calls since March, 2014 and found that out of 974 contracts sold by this amateur, ONE, REPEAT ONE CONTRACT GOT ASSIGNED, and that was one a few months ago with a $17.50 Strike price. The majority strikes which expired worthless were, in order of priority $22.50's and $20's. So the adage of more ways to skin a cat has held true.

    But what of the "Hegde Fund" gurus who many, including yours truly, have followed over the years?
    Well. Today's article has a nice take on it. They are NOT hedging anything. The word Hedge has lost all meaning, because frankly they are stock pickers, mini mutual funds, and they may buy and hold, like Baupost and Soros, but read on from Bloomberg article today quoting Stanley and comments are appreciated :

    "
    Poor performance by hedge funds continues to be a hot topic, but no one wants to take the blame for low returns.

    A survey conducted by Morgan Stanley Equity Strategist Adam Parker highlights the ostrich-like way much of the hedge fund industry is dealing with its recent inability to generate the elusive outperformance known as alpha.

    "We surveyed a group of long/short fundamental equity hedge fund managers at one of the conferences, asking them for the primary reason for poor performance of their industry," he writes.

    The top response received by the analyst was "crowding," or where a large number of investors are in the same trade, followed by "factor exposures," or losses based on certain risks involved in a position.

    More from Bloomberg.com: Banker Sitting in U.S. Prison Has a Most Incredible Tale to Tell

    Last on the list was "stock selection" — a shortcoming that Parker criticized whole-heartedly.

    "In other words, when performance is bad, it is beta, when performance is good, it is alpha. The truth is that 100 percent, at some level, should have said 'poor stock selection,' and what these data reveal is that 92 percent of respondents are blaming something other than their stock selection methodology for the current underperformance."
    Clearly unsatisfied with the survey responses, Parker highlights some of his own reasons for poor hedge fund performance in his note.

    One is simply the growth of hedge funds, which makes it harder for traders to get into positions that aren't crowded and gain an edge. Second, many firms have been extremely cautious when it comes to making sure they aren't trading on any information that might be considered "insider" following some much-publicized prosecutions. On a potentially related note, Parker points out that information is a lot easier to find in this day and age, making it harder for firms to get an edge on a trade. Even the lack of initial public offerings is hurting hedge funds, as the easy money that was once available in quick trades of newly public companies in the 1990s is hard to find when nobody wants to go public (though it might still be alive in the corporate bond market).

    More from Bloomberg.com: Facebook Sued for $1b for Alleged Use of Medium for Terror

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Gold up $70!!!!!

    by robertbreethefirst Jun 23, 2016 11:47 PM
    royco royco Jun 28, 2016 7:43 PM Flag

    dlojor,
    The company should have hired investment bankers to explore all avenues, including look into joint ventures with names in the industries or.... how about considering testing the market and being acquired. No big deal, unless management fears such a strategy for reasons they should have to publicly explain,

  • Reply to

    Gold up $70!!!!!

    by robertbreethefirst Jun 23, 2016 11:47 PM
    royco royco Jun 27, 2016 1:20 PM Flag

    ABX has been outstanding, Lode’s BoD should have stood up to CEO and insisted on upholding their jointly-held Fiduciary responsibility to consider "STRATEGIC ALTERNATIVES". Markets are a mess.

    Gold is always a safe haven in these "unprecedented" occasions, but Comstock remains a penny stock, at its lows. Pathetic, irresponsible, and probably actionable.

  • Reply to

    18 the new 17

    by jmft.rm May 24, 2016 11:09 AM
    royco royco May 25, 2016 7:48 AM Flag

    Did close over 18, actually decent volume, 8150 over $32TWD.
    Now SPIL and ASK are "trading halted...news pending". Awaiting to read what is reported on any "deal", or
    None.

    Taiwan's mkts have had decent bounce post inaugural of Tsai, Barron's
    Article was positive on Taiwan mkt. outlook, bounce back, or at least "worst is over" theme suggested.

    Gltlongs

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Earnings and CC thoughts

    by imos_is_garbage May 12, 2016 4:21 PM
    royco royco May 17, 2016 11:38 AM Flag

    Buy-
    I agree, and in fact have not owned Himx since it was in the 12 range, left some on the table when it ran to 15 if I recall, no remorse, but then watched it drop big time. The risk/reward did not seem worth it, way too frothybut the customer remains upbeat and IMOS' price gets that reinforcement.

    Frankly Klarman and Soros now hold at around a price they got in at, and imo are here for the logical conversion pay-off, while fundamentals in the space hold up well. IMOS' Mngmt plodded along terribly and risked macro share price loss, but 8150 tells the story imo.

    One last note, since 8150 listed On the Taiwan Exchange it is down approximately 14% whereas 6147, from April, 2013, is down 70%, give or take. Apple may be a big part of that spread, but Chipmos may be taking some market share or expanding as we sit here today, and Tsinghua's $21 bid seems to reinforce a positive Outlook, whether or no they get approval. New Taiwan Government gets sworn in soon

    Gltlongs

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Earnings and CC thoughts

    by imos_is_garbage May 12, 2016 4:21 PM
    royco royco May 17, 2016 8:55 AM Flag

    Himax CEO re-confirms large panel et al upbeat guidance after recent slamming;
    Stock should pop in early trading, but clearly Imos' customer speaks out when necessary, after a CC.
    SJ, take note! (Btw, This customer was NOT lost from IMOS, wonder what was that poster's motive in posting "loss of major customer" garbage just prior to the CC. SEC investigators, please take note.)

    "Himax Technologies, Inc. Reiterates Positive Outlook in 2016
    1 hour 12 minutes ago - DJNF
    Himax Technologies, Inc. Reiterates Positive Outlook in 2016
    TAINAN, Taiwan, May 17, 2016 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Himax Technologies, Inc. (Nasdaq:HIMX) ("Himax" or "Company"), a leading supplier and fabless manufacturer of display drivers and other semiconductor products, today responded to its post-earnings share price movement.

    The Company is aware of the recent major share price decline following its earnings call on May 12(th) and would like to reiterate its confidence in the positive outlook for revenues and earnings growth in 2016. Himax is seeing strength in all of its three product categories, namely large-sized panel driver IC, small and medium-sized panel driver IC and non-driver products, from market share gains and new product launches. The Company is especially excited about the business prospects in the Augmented Reality (AR) and Virtual Reality (VR) segments where it has a solid and unrivaled top notch customer portfolio. The company remains committed to its strategy to diversify its customer base and product portfolio to generate the highest value for its shareholders.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Earnings and CC thoughts

    by imos_is_garbage May 12, 2016 4:21 PM
    royco royco May 13, 2016 9:23 AM Flag

    P.S. Getting hit pre -market of course, maybe partially due to headline FX fake 10ct " miss", impatience with "8150 buy-back vs. no IMOS buyback" now confirmed. May be, once again, time to add incrementally.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Earnings and CC thoughts

    by imos_is_garbage May 12, 2016 4:21 PM
    royco royco May 13, 2016 9:13 AM Flag

    IMOS-is

    Reading the transcript seemed to confirm that LCD large panel, high margin demand is strong and these guys over the years have been less than effusive, so

    "...Yes, Eric, to answer your question, the total capacity will increase for the next three years, represent almost around 45% of existing capacity in Taiwan. So it means every year, we increase 15% in China. So this is easy healthy and consolidated incremental percentages based on previous experience. But compared with the total panel output in China, our capacity increase STILL CANNOT meet the requirement (emphasis added).

    Eric Gomberg

    Just to understand that you have customers that have specifically answered this.

    S.J. Cheng
    Our customers push us to do so and we have very low commitment from our customer side."

    Thanks to EG of Dane for pushing them, (even to extent there may now be continued $15m qrtrly buyback of 8150).
    They reiterated demand should allow them to meet pretty decent 2016 rev guidance, if I recall, from ?s by RS of C-H, even with latest April revs decline.

    While some of this gets garbled, and Himax drops 16% yesterday, Micron tests below 10,
    There seems to be reasonable expectation of "conversion" on course, continued more than decent revs, GMs as well.
    Macro in tech may affect near term, but there is a tunnel that still shows a light moving closer after May BoD approval, not the train some have posted....including that classic about IMOS losing a major customer.
    Years of, at times frustrating holding, while trading calls and buying/selling/buying a trading portion on the poor Mngmt. Decisions to unlock IMOS value, seems okay without the world or at least Asia imploding in the next 90 days.

    Gltongs

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    April revenue & Q2 2016 guidance

    by jamcracker25 May 1, 2016 6:07 PM
    royco royco May 12, 2016 10:31 AM Flag

    Verifying loss of major customer. Who has this pearl of information?

    As Himx plunges on in-line revs, same in its guidance, decent EPS above-consensus guidance. IMOS dropping along for the ride, barely traded so far.

    AAPL hits new 52 wk low. Mkt. momentum, excessive job losses not helpful, though bad jobs data may affect Fed raising.

    Plenty imo to affect share price very short-term, just keep the conversion timetable on track, or these guys should be vilified.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    April revenue & Q2 2016 guidance

    by jamcracker25 May 1, 2016 6:07 PM
    royco royco May 12, 2016 3:26 AM Flag

    Good point, doubt it's Himx, which may give some positive feedback ahead of the IMOS CC. Though here vacationing in Europe, saw it was up at the end of trading yesterday, notwithstanding mkt. sell-off. Doubt IMOS lost it as a customer, or others in the top 10. Should hear soon enough, (although Sharp continues to falter, what's new ( Hon Hai already cut the buy-out price).

    8150 has heavy volume, now back in green with less than an hour to go, while 6147 back down at its 52 week LOW! Always like to think overseas is attuned to business outlook, even if flat vs serious drop-off.

    Gltlongs

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    SPIL Tsinghua

    by conversionworrier Apr 29, 2016 10:28 AM
    royco royco May 1, 2016 1:39 AM Flag

    Turt,

    On Friday, while awaiting going overseas, perhaps one of the few lone long termers here who added as the price kept dropping. The recent monthly reports seemed stronger than C-Bond, and Mngmt.'s continued refusal to even respond to their supposed "lawyering" on a buyback of IMOS, coupled with SPIL'S termination of Tsingua and Apple's crunch down left retailers with plenty of more reasons to bale.

    Saw Hedgehog, another guy I respect, opine that all 3 Tsinghua deals would be approved or none at all. We'll soon see how Taiwan's new leadership affects that with IMOS, but if Guidance stays decent a pop is reasonable to expect from this approximate level.

    Lincoln's. birthday collapse was clearly a great opportunity, now it seems like a good one, risk vs. reward. 8150’s drop still has plenty of coverage/protection for even short term trade, and low volume shows the big boys, esp. BAUPOST, the silent disappointing leader, are in the game as before.
    That conversion-based derivative dividend is sorely awaited, and ex-dividend imo the stock price does not return to pre-ex levels.
    Gltlongs

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    IMOS and 8150 buybacks

    by qksha Apr 24, 2016 7:33 PM
    royco royco Apr 25, 2016 10:21 AM Flag

    Think you left out the word "NOT".

PFE
36.74+0.03(+0.08%)Jul 22 4:00 PMEDT