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JDS Uniphase Corporation Message Board

rspiland3 171 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 4, 2016 11:55 AM Member since: Feb 23, 2012
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  • Reply to

    Last partnership

    by stockinvestor56 Jul 3, 2016 5:59 PM
    rspiland3 rspiland3 Jul 4, 2016 11:55 AM Flag

    Glad to hear those kind of numbers; has been my thinking all along. I'm a long term holder. And I consider a buyout to be a risk, or maybe a consolation prize. A 30% royalty is probably too high, but high teens royalty on multi-billion drug revs should easily justify a $5B market cap.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Someone is selling a lot of stock.

    by aquasolutions4u Jun 30, 2016 11:19 AM
    rspiland3 rspiland3 Jun 30, 2016 2:32 PM Flag

    Lot of stock? Traded 4M shares June 22 and 2.3M shares June 27, both big "up" days. Traded 419k yesterday and 284k today. Looks like a pretty light-volume pullback to me. Doesn't matter. When they announce a partnership, stock will never look back.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • rspiland3 rspiland3 Jun 22, 2016 11:58 AM Flag

    No, I'm not selling either...my largest position in biotech. Whole sector has been sucking wind. But with great data and most existing treatments off patent, I think license deal should provide 15%-19% royalties. There are roughly 3.5M patients in the U.S., including 200K who get surgery. At $3,000 per dose and 20% market penetration, total U.S. revs would be $2.1B. At 15% royalty, this translates to $315M license revs, or $6.30 per share. Rest of World could double these numbers. Maybe still risky, but this can be a monster stock with the right partner!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • rspiland3 by rspiland3 Jun 22, 2016 10:39 AM Flag

    It's important to remember fexapotide is a completely new paradigm for treatment of BPH, and now maybe prostate cancer. New paradigms take time and a lot of study. But the trend is towards more effective and safer treatments, and this drug has the potential to become the first-line treatment. Moreover, almost every other BPH treatment is off patent, so there should be decent competition for a license deal. I still think peak sales will be well over $2.5 B in the U.S. alone; ROW could double that number.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Finally we get news, more great data. NYMX has by far the best trial results of any BPH treatment. This 7-year study is extraordinary in its implications. So they have the better mousetrap; what we need now is a partner to commercialize it. I remain convinced fexapotide can be a blockbuster drug, and continue to hold NYMX in the expectation that the stock can be at least a 10-20 bagger next 3-5 years.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    SPHS Results

    by fenix1357 Jun 9, 2016 8:33 PM
    rspiland3 rspiland3 Jun 9, 2016 11:01 PM Flag

    Thanks! You sound like you have medical training...you a doc?

  • I don't, so can't read the article. But someone called Cliffside Research posted a long case rebuttal to the Streetsweeper short call this morning. Title is "Gift Pullback Provides Entry Point." I can't imagine it says anything longs don't already know, but would love a summary if anyone has read it.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Long term question?.....

    by markdownfrenzy Jun 6, 2016 9:25 AM
    rspiland3 rspiland3 Jun 6, 2016 10:52 AM Flag

    On days like this, important to remember the Watson license deal (AGN subsidiary) is both a huge endorsement and a major source of cash and royalty income upon approval. I do not agree this CRL reflects badly on management as some are saying. In all likelihood, product will be approved with an 8-12 month delay. I'm like other long term holders...had a nice profit, now a small loss. But under $5 the stock is quite attractive with a target in the mid teens within a year of approval. Might be dead money for a quarter or two though.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Miteks CFO Russell Clark spoke up.

    by nadullah62 Jun 2, 2016 4:21 PM
    rspiland3 rspiland3 Jun 2, 2016 5:02 PM Flag

    That's very true. In fact he has been more involved with his vineyard and other interests for several years. His big holdings were expected to be sold and were considered an overhang on the stock when liquidity was more of an issue. Moreover, he got a full step-up in the cost basis after his wife Sally died, so no major tax hit...total non-event for investors. Further, selling by executives reflects the fact that their main compensation is stock and option grants, so they sell some each year...again, no biggie. Short story is bogus, stock is a buy.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Wow, just like the Bad Old Days?

    by rspiland3 Jun 2, 2016 11:24 AM
    rspiland3 rspiland3 Jun 2, 2016 1:59 PM Flag

    Here's another good one: Benzinga picked up the story, but added that MITK has accumulated $33 in debt. Reality is they have accumulated $33 cash and zero debt. These stories pass; as long as MITK continues to execute, the stock will be fine.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Hi all, long-time holder here. Today's Streetsweeper report is totally bogus. MITK has posted 13 straight quarters of 20%-plus rev growth (last Q was up 50%,) has almost a dollar per share in cash, and is poised to grow earnings at least 25-30% for the next 3-5 years. They have maintained 90%-plus Gross Margins and shown remarkable expense control, while strategically expanding into mobile customer acquisition and ID verification, arguably the most underserved market in all of tech. They have beaten estimates each quarter since they began providing guidance, and this year's guidance (already raised once) is likely too low. I'm estimating $35-$36 mil revs for F2016...a little better than guidance. But next year's revs should approach $50 mil, vs. consensus $41 mil, and eps should be around 40 cents. I'm happy to pay 30X eps for a 40% grower, so 12-month target should easily be $12-14, maybe more.

    This is not a return to the bad old days, but an brilliant opportunity. After 25 years in institutional investing, I can't see how small cap growth investors can not want to own this stock; there just aren't that many high-quality secular growth themes to buy. So if they continue to execute as well as the past, my price target could be conservative. Good luck, and happy investing!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Finally Happening!

    by rspiland3 Apr 7, 2016 1:54 PM
    rspiland3 rspiland3 Apr 7, 2016 10:48 PM Flag

    Important thing is companies don't hire Centerview Partners to "evaluate alternatives, but to get a deal done at the best price possible. And it makes sense, because RLYP needs cash to commercialize Veltassa, and a number of big pharma companies want this drug. Can't do a secondary at these prices...If this was a bulge bracket investment bank, I might discount the story. But if Centerview is the banker, there will be a good deal for shareholders soon.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Finally Happening!

    by rspiland3 Apr 7, 2016 1:54 PM
    rspiland3 rspiland3 Apr 7, 2016 4:39 PM Flag

    $40 would be less than 2X peak revs...I think that's too cheap. Stifel cut his DCF value to $55 based on Big Pharma cost of capital of 8% and tax rate 25%. A $55 buyout is only 2.25X peak revs, significant discount to the 3X AZN paid for ZS Pharma. I think deal gets done somewhere between $55-$75. If deal doesn't get done before May 26, and ZS9 (comp drug) gets a black label warning, then price will be toward the high end of the range.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • rspiland3 by rspiland3 Apr 7, 2016 1:54 PM Flag

    There were multiple bidders for ZS Pharma, so likely at least 3 bidders RLYP. Centerview Partners is a world-class M&A boutique; in all likelihood, deal will happen. Not too many comps this year, but last year transaction prices were 3X-5X peak revs. Estimated peak revs are $1.1 billion, so 3X would be around $75 per share. Most likely buyer is MRK in my opinion. Great fit and deep pockets. Long and will add on any dips!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Hi everyone, I'm still here and recently added to my position. I was extremely pleased to see the Form 20-F Annual Report submitted within the required timeframe and without further restatements. Although operating on a shoestring budget, this suggests the company is back in compliance and has achieved some stability. And recent private placement should provide sufficient liquidity to pursue regulatory approvals and/or partnerships.

    Everyone knows NYMX is risky, and the wait has been longer than expected. But the successful 42-month extension trial data is so much better than approved treatments that I still think their drug is approvable in the U.S. and elsewhere. The question is whether the FDA defends its hegemony by requiring another trial, or chooses instead to allow patients to access a clearly superior treatment. Recent FDA posture has been pretty accommodative to novel treatments. And the safety profile of available treatments is so poor that it really looks like a no-brainer to me.

    My estimates are unchanged from my previous comments. Current annual market is around 3.5 mil patients in the U.S. alone, of which 200k get surgery. The market is growing at low single digit rate, which may accelerate with a better treatment. I assume 20% market penetration by 2019-2020 at $3,000 per dose, so total drug revenues should be $2.4 bil. Royalties should be 13%-19%, so assume 15%, or $360 mil license revs to NYMX. At 50 mil shares, that's $7.20 per share at 100% gross margin. ROW approvals could expand this by 50% or more, and the Bahamas don't have corporate income tax.

    Obviously it's a subjective exercise to forecast what Dr. Averback might do with this rev stream, but I think it could easily support a $50-$75 stock price in the next few years if it works. Hopefully we won't have to wait much longer for regulatory news. Good luck!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Don't remember seeing much on the APOL buyout on this board, but bears should take note. The firm taking APOL private is Vistria Group, run by former Deputy Secretary of Education Tony Miller. Such a sweet deal: use your government power to crush an industry, then use your financial connections to acquire the biggest player....LOL, what a racket!

    There will likely be more buyouts in this industry. In fact with ESI trading at less than 1X EBITDA, the risk is that someone takes it private at $6 when it's worth double digits.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • rspiland3 by rspiland3 Feb 17, 2016 2:53 PM Flag

    ESI has already had two new activist shareholders in the past few months...Nantahala and Plymouth Lane. Now it appears Barnstar Opportunity fund has acquired a 4.3% stake. Barnstar is run by Charles Fernandez, former president and partner of Bruce Berkowitz's Fairholme Capital. Very, very smart guy... Shorts are going to get torched in this stock! I'm adding down here ahead of earnings.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • rspiland3 rspiland3 Feb 16, 2016 2:45 PM Flag

    There's a Carl DeCicco on LinkedIn who is SVP, Head of Drug Discovery at Bristol Myers...that you?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Board hasn't changed much...

    by rspiland3 Feb 13, 2016 1:41 PM
    rspiland3 rspiland3 Feb 13, 2016 11:50 PM Flag

    Hope you have your money where your mouth is

  • I haven't been here for a while, but still long and nibbling on recent weakness. My analysis supports TDR's long thesis. And in fact he's turned up a few good morsels which I had overlooked. The data...cash, cost control, employment and default stats...all look pretty good for this company. Even Obama's own Scorecard shows they aren't the egregious offenders portrayed on this board. And clearly APOL management and private equity think the regulatory tide has begun to abate. Enrollments are key; they will likely begin to stabilize this year, and maybe even this Q.

    And with an 8.5 mil short, 50% of float, and 27 days to cover, shorts are gonna get torched!

    I'll check back as we approach double digits.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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