Interesting - learn something new all the time.
According to them it's currently priced at $88.61 but was as high as $140.54 at the start and was as low as $82.49. At current pricing that's down 40% or at low it's 41.3%.
The stock was at $4.89 the day before they announced the convert, dropped to $4.02 the day they announced it and was down to $3.81 when it was closed. That's a 22% drop in the stock price because of the bad convert and that's why Sal had to retire, okay, for personal, okay, reasons, okay. Isn't there a south park character that does that - a teacher I think with the puppet sock - hahaha - I made my self laugh.
If you look at the day before the convert announcement to the stock price now that's a 47% drop and if you look at when it was announced and closed that's a 35% and 32% drop.
So the convert is right in the middle and I would expect it to lag the stock price so it's going to continue to go down. Since the convert is actually based on 20 or 30 day trading (can't remember) then it should lag because the stock has been as high as $3.43 in the last 30 days.
So maybe it's all part of the plan to tank the stock so they can buy back the bonds cheap and then they push a button and money just start rolling in with their game changing stuff. Or maybe Sal and Lise will buy the bonds because they love the stock even more than the Timinator or Steve-o.
Where do you find that information?
That's still a premium given the stock is down 23% since they bought the convert on March 22nd. Why is the price only down 6% on the convert? According to Junkie it should be worth $65. Does the convert price lag the stock price or something - help me understand.
OMG so much fun with numbers.
YoY 2014 - 2015 it grew from 2.8% ($5.1M) to 5.0% ($8.6M) or 69% delta $3.5M
YoY 2015 - 2016 it grew from 5.0% ($8.6M) to 8.1% ($12.8M) or 49% delta $4.2M
% wise it grew 2.2 in 15 and 3.1 in 16 but that's because total revenue went down. 2 Years into the big plan and it's already starting to slow.....guess they'll have to modify this slide next time or decide not to show it. At first glance this looked good but again when you dig in it doesn't.
Quarter - rev - new product rev - % - new product rev delta
q1/14 - 180.4 - 2.8% - 5.1
q2/14 - 183.7 - 3.3% - 6.1 - 1.0
q3/14 - 179.6 - 3.5% - 6.3 - 0.2
q4/14 - 175.3 - 4.1% - 7.2 - 0.9
q1/15 - 172.8 - 5.0% - 8.6 - 1.4
q2/15 - 167.7 - 5.6% - 9.4 - 0.8
q3/15 - 167.1 - 6.2% - 10.4 - 1.0
q4/15 - 159.2 - 7.1% - 11.3 - 0.9
q1/16 - 157.8 - 8.1% - 12.8 - 1.5
So Q1 is a good quarter for new products but last year it grew 1.4M and this year it's 1.5M I wouldn't say that's going to save this company. It just looks better with the drop in overall revenue but it's not growing fast enough to make a difference. EU is likely to see some head winds this year so the only bright spot will dim.
DABDA - 5 stages a survivors feelings over the intimate death of someone they know or love.
Denial - It's the micro/macro/marble economy. Linked isn't a competitor, only people that make $150K a year use that site. There is no advantage to the passive candidate - I don't believe that. Sal quotes.
Anger - F SPG and all the haters. They are idiots they don't know the company. We need to find the traitors and the leakers and get rid of them. This company is in a better position than it was last year (they say that every year.) Once the economy recovers we are going to crush the competition. This is game changing it's got the competition scared.
Bargaining - let's buy hotjobs and chinahr. Let's buy lots of little things and put it together. Let's sell the company it's worth more than the stock price shows. Let's buy shares because it's worth more - I'm worth more!
Depression - replace Sal for personal reasons. sure the CFO that has no CEO experience put him in charge. that guy from lycos that went under yeah put him in charge. fire the CFO. fire the CFO. make the CEO the CFO. I don't care if the metrics are true just make up some that work. tell them it'll grow next year.
Acceptance - maybe the management advisory was for bankruptcy proceedings or for taking the company private. It's time to accept that it's OVER. The street is showing it with the stock price.
Went back up just before earnings - more than it went down the previous week. Still very high - the street does not believe. I think we are going to be setting some all time lows including breaching the $1.xx before the end of the year.
The intraday has been lower but the all time low close is $2.72 - way to go Tim - way to go Steve - you guys earned those million dollar bonuses for the stock price and adjusted EBITDA margins that we made for 30 days in a row - BRAVO team BRAVO.
I guess the real question now is can we even get someone to replace these guys from the outside? I mean to get rid of them is another $10+M in stock, pay, bonus, and all that stuff, just like we did for Sal. Then you got to give the next guys a boatload of options and they have NOTHING to work with. No capital, no brand, no money, a bloated workforce, and the company bet on a new product that's been out now for 2 years and isn't cutting it.
Got to take a break for a while - I'm sure everyone is tired of hearing from me anyways.
First anybody that has ever worked for Symbol needs to be fired from the company - they have done far more harm than good. Second all the C level execs need to go - same story. Third the board needs to be replaced as they aren't doing their job.
As for the company, there were two positives that I saw - First the new products continue to grow and second international seems to be improving. But those are offset by the fact that new products isn't growing fast enough to replace lost core revenue and international still isn't profitable. They narrowed the loss but it still was a negative -$4.32M GAAP and -$4.10M on GAAP which is still nearly 9%. Add back in their share of corporate overhead - say 1/3 - and you add another $1.43M and it's nearly 12%.
Their most profitable segment which is the US now seems to be under serious pressure. If you remember a few years ago they decided to pull back from the International to focus on the US so it's another example of how this management team fails at everything they focus on. You see this in the drag down of the adjusted EBITDA numbers which is why it suddenly changed to cash EBITDA which they had never mentioned before this quarter. They also didn't break out US and international in their presentation you have to look at the filing to find that data. When ever they hide a number, stop reporting it, or add a new metric you know they are in trouble.
Cash was down $36.2M (bad thing) and debt went down $9.9M (good thing.) They bought $12.5M in stock and shares but that still means they spent $13.8M in the quarter more than they took in (backing out the stock purchases.) This company no longer produced money and they are just wasting the Korea sale like they have always done. They can talk about cash EBITDA, free cash, Pro Forma this and that but in the end they are running out of time and money. It's OVER!
Let's not get carried away Captain Underpants. He was mad that Andy decided to stay around as CEO with a new employment agreement.
They also reported a net loss of $504M and 1,000 job cuts so the wheels were coming off the cart and that's why he retired...I mean resigned. Jim was against all the acquisitions that the company did to build up - except for Monster. That was all Lanny who was with Solomon before becoming the Monster CFO for some reason. The stock was also at $10 at this point so Jim wasn't a savior.
The management team after that built back the company and it was on the right track before Sal and the Symbol Mafia did a hostile takeover and crashed the whole thing.
Plus there is the conviction on securities fraud with Jim for back dating options which made it a lot easier to grow the company with in the money options.
Call was pretty short and painful. Acted like they've been reporting Cash EBITDA all along even though they just made it up this quarter. Story is old and doesn't really hold any water. My favorite quote is from the Timinator...when asked about biggest obstacle...
I think we feel that it's 2/3 price competition, 1/3 probably our own internal with a little bit of macro overhang on it. And I would not blame macro overhang, but I think the world is not as robust as the headline employment statistics would indicate.
Linkedin grew 35% YoY - and what exactly is a macro hangover - what drink causes that?
They did the same thing they always do an said revenue growth will come in the second half when everybody knows Q3 is always their worst quarter. Still hoping for now low to mid single digit growth but they even said that's not looking great.
It sounds like non of the real analyst made the call and they really weren't that interested......I have no idea why the stock would be down today.
As I said it's just a way to make the cash EBITDA look better. I would bet it's payments to the two former CFO's and/or Sal an Lise so it doesn't look like a big severance payout since they got in trouble with that before.
I've been telling people to bail since $18+ but I'm a naysayer with facts.
If you believe the story - which is they got a great and experienced management team and board, they got a plan that they took years to develop and they implemented 2 years ago, they are sticking to the plan, the plan is working, then it's a buy at $2.73.
But as I have shown I don't believe there is anything to back up the story - all of the data shows the same cyclical downtrend that's been there for years now. They have no 'free cash' to work with and every chance they get they buy back the stock like some crazed crack head. The real market cap of the company is now around $240M (when you count outstanding diluted shares according to today's numbers.) If they have $100M or more in cash they'll buy a company just to switch things up.
Short term nothing moves like this stock - up/down 10% in a day or a couple of days. It moves up and down all the time - it's a short seller and day trader dream stock. But long term - do you believe the story that the management team has been telling for nearly a decade now?
Linkedin - 9,732 versus $856.11M in rev or $351.9K in revenue per Employee
oh wait Monster dropped that metric too but it's about half $161K per Employee.
foster trust, openness and integrity in all that we do
unless it doesn't tell a positive story then we ignore it and hope it will go away or SPG will die in a very slow and painful way.
$856.11M in revenue or 5.43X the size of monster for the first quarter.
They grew $218.42M YoY or again more than an entire Monster but only 34.25% YoY.
Their adjusted EBITDA was $222M or again more than an entire Monster.
Stock based comp was $146M or almost an entire Monster - too much in my opinion and I still think Linkedin is overvalued.
International revenue was $344M or 7x Monster international.
US revenue was $526M or 4.8x Monster US.
They also spent $238M on product dev which is more than an entire Monster.
why have we continued to pay this people for a decade?
Another way to put something in the non-Gaap bucket so they can increase cash and adjusted EBITDA and other made up numbers...or maybe it's for the CFO(s) they didn't fire because for some reason they haven't found new jobs. They made it a point of saying they didn't pay them out big bonuses when they left like everybody else, or maybe it's Sal and Lise's retainer for services related to the long term plan. They live by their values you - especially this one -foster trust, openness and integrity in all that we do
approach the world with intelligence.
put Customers and Candidates first, always.
foster trust, openness and integrity in all that we do.
are bold and proud; we seek to improve the company, the communities where we operate, and ourselves.
trust, openness and integrity seem to be lacking to me....but maybe it's just me. Actually I'm not sure they do any of these things very well. The symbol mafia is like that movie good fellas.
Stock price down - bleep you pay me.
New products not selling - bleep you pay me.
Not hitting metrics or targets - bleep you pay me.
Stock buybacks not working - bleep you pay me.
Long term plan not working - bleep you pay me.
Another restructure - bleep you pay me.
Another sales reorg - bleep you pay me.
Revenue down - bleep you pay me.
Bought companies not working out - bleep you pay me.
Retiring - bleep you pay me.
2015 - Net Revenue threshold - target - max
766M - 796M - 828M - actual 666M
consolidated EBITDA 152M - 179M - 207M - actual 106M.
In 7 years I've been tracking - 2009 to 2015 they've never hit the target despite large grants of stock - you know largest single shareholders - and bonuses and pay. In most years there were multiple metrics and 4 grades - threshold - intermediate - target and max.....so here are the points possible and what they did...
2009 - 0 points out of 9 (3 metrics 3 zones earnings, revenue, operating income - min/target/max)
2010 - 4 points out of 12 (3 metrics 4 zones) - note they bought revenue with hotjobs
2011 - 0 points out of 12 (3 metrics 4 zones)
2012 - 4 points out of 12 (3 metrics 4 zones)
2013 - 0 points out of 12 (3 metrics 4 zones)
2014 - 0 points out of 12 (3 metrics 4 zones)
2015 - 0 out of 6 (2 metrics 3 zones)
So 8 points on the board out of 75. Would you trust the board or NEO's with anything at this point? They have missed ALL the points in the last 4 years yet are still getting paid like gansta's of the symbol mafia.
But when they talk they always talk about hitting their own internal metrics or numbers? How can that be possible when they can't ever hit their public numbers that they all agree to at the start of the year. How can this team be that short sited that every year they think they cyclic bumb in revenue is just going to keep running?
My guess is we are back to 2 tomorrow yet somehow they'll make their internal numbers and still expect a hockey stick of 5% growth by the end of the year.
If you want to see the details search for threshold and target and changed the drop down to all and you can see my previous details on each year.
Consolidated Net Revenue (Threshold - Target - Max)
766M - 796M - 828.2M - actual $666M
152M - 179M - 207M - actual $85M (adjusted EBITDA)