the average cost to bring a drug through stage 3 is in the billions and something like 6 years. So whats your point that nwbo is getting this study through on the cheep?
it's not jest 12.8m short its all the synthetic shares that are created by the unknown amount of FTD's. I suspect the actual number is higher.
so your 200k position is hedged or on loan
dlangend_01 • 16 hours ago
users liked this posts
users disliked this posts
dJudging by the rest of your posts, I would assign about 0% credibility if I were a long.
I wish they (the FTD crew) were concerned but the SEC is in there pocket so there not losing any sleep.
I suspect Woodford intends to pull an end run and pursue a civil case against the synthetic shorts living in the dark pool.
Everybody complaining about the scheduled and cash burn. Most of you have unrealistic ideas about what the approval process entails and costs. this is a massive undertaking 10 years with reliable funding and hear is what i feel is a low cost estimate from the "American Enterprise Institute
Sep 16, 2015 - The average cost to market for a new drug is $2.6 billion"
without a functioning crystal ball non of us could do better.
or you could jest keep asking for answers to the unknown and demanding that negatives be disproved.
what Woodford is actually doing is: putting an irrefutable corporate defense teem in place.
many small companies with disrupted technologies have experienced negative market forces similar to what nwbo is experiencing and failed or were forced to merge with a partner. Without well funded independent specialists its nearly impossible for a public company to bring a disruptive technology to market with there intellectual property intact. NWBO, as it is has to this point remained independent and i believe that Woodford was well aware of the creative structure that was used by NWBO and intends to shepherd (Direct) to the finish line. Odds of getting to the FDA have increased, Pass or Fail remain the same, if we Pass the odds of the company being successful long term are increased with Woodford as an active investor.
some people don't seem to understand that nwbo's Dendrite cell cancer vaccine is an improved variation on of a proven concept that has already been fda approved albeit by a failed company dndn.
so your implying that after the latest 30m W did an NDA with nwbo.
ludicrous, ridicules, ignorant, jest plan silly line of BS.
i did not mean to be cliche, I am jest pointing out that your comment is simply not rational.
IF any investor was to do what you propose
"Woodford was able to sign an NDA to find out what was really going on with NWBO"
they would by that act be bared from trading/profiting in any way from that time in-till the (information) became public. no ifs, ands, or buts.
and in that light a FOOLISH statement.
this reminds me of the DNDN price movement around the time of approval, when it got driven way down. were not nearly as far along in the process, and yes bad news is a possibility but this is risk capital to me and im going to hold my perpetual option position. Dendrite cell vaccine is a demonstrated concept of treatment and with L and D news in our distant horizon i will take the gray swan.
except in Germany and anywhere there is an hospital exemption. then the test sights become revenue creators and in non HE countries the centers (providing approval) are kick start adaption and yes eventual $.
jds gives a conservative timeline for apd371 approval, but F/T status, or the reality that valuation will respond to early data + or -, and the potential for + stage 2 data to attract interested BF partners is worth consideration.
because Arena pharm has a proven drug discovery system, and has demonstrated the ability get a "new chemical entity" through the FDA to market.
A good comparison is ISIS pharm an 8.5B m/c which has a proven drug discovery system an approved drug w/ partner and good pipe. ISIS differs in that there prospects are mostly orphan drug candidates and isis uses a partner early model. WS needed years to "see" (read get positioned) the value in isis and there drug discovery platform. Arenas ability to map receptor sites and there proprietary G protein receptor platform has more value for two main reasons 1 much broader market and 2 delayed partnering. when will WS "see" the value in ARNA? Probably not until short interest is below 10m.