Seems like production could be a big contributor to increased share price, this from a news release yesterday:
"SECOND QUARTER 2016 HIGHLIGHTS (compared to Q2 2015)
• Silver production of 4,241,338 ounces, a 71.2% increase.
• Gold production of 62,965 ounces, a 40.9% increase.
• Silver equivalent production of 11,813,131 ounces, a 38.4% increase.2
• Lead production increased 9.1% and zinc production increased 3.5%.
• Increased silver production estimate for 2016 to 15.75 million ounces, a 5% increase.
• Increased gold production estimate for 2016 to 233,000 ounces, a 13% increase.
• Increased silver equivalent production estimate for 2016 to 44 million ounces, a 7% increase.3
• Cash, cash equivalents and short term investments of approximately $157 million at 06/30/16, an increase of about $23 million over 03/31/16.
“Our strategy of accelerating growth has silver and gold production up 71% and 41% over last year just as prices are starting to rise,” said Phillips S. Baker, Jr., Hecla’s President and CEO. “With increased production and higher prices we are generating free cash flow and have more cash than when we started the year. Our increasing production outlook puts Hecla on track for another record setting year of silver production.”"
If you are worried about the tax issue you might sell. Also, SLW has significant profits whereas several small miner's are just turning profitable or will be starting mines in the near future. One might sell SLW to fund a bit more leverage to silver price change in a miner.
I understand where you are coming from sugarsail1, but one flaw I do not see you address is the counterparty risks inherent with bitcoin. You cannot be sure the coin will not be counterfeited as there is a mechanism to add coins that well could be hacked. Also, there is the risk of software failure or hacking of one's personal account. Being digital is a major path for the government to be able to confiscate your bitcoin wealth electronically via tax or outright theft 'for the good of the republic'. Holding gold and silver coins do not have that risk, albeit theft is still a real potential. Yes gold was confiscated during the depression, but I have read where only something like 20% was actually collected.
Another problem I see is bit coin is competition for the dollar and the banksters, fed and government are not sympathetic to competition. Until the banksters figure out a way to manipulate bitcoin to their advantage over the common citizen, the threat of making bitcoin illegal will be real.
In short, all forms of money/currency have their shortcomings, some more than others. At present, civilization has become very accustomed to the conveniences of electronic handling of money and that will not go away until something really bad happens to the general population. Given the convenience factor, electronic currency will not go away soon, unless it is devalued to worthless by incompetent management, the primary counterparty risk to our dollar. When was the last time you heard the phrase good as a dollar or good as gold? Good as gold was probably more recent.
PM's and PM stocks have had an exceptional run up of late. Adam Hamilton has written an article summarizing the move and putting it into historical context relating stocks and metal that is very informative. Over the past few months, I have noticed several smaller cap PM stock have not done nearly as well as their larger cap brethren. Hamilton has noticed this and reasons that large players are using funds to obtain a PM position so the stocks represented in the funds and indexes are getting disproportionate buying pressure. Gold Stocks' Record Summer Surge is the title of the article by Adam Hamilton and I located it at Safehaven dot com.
At the Tenth Amendment Center web site, an article titled "Gold: What it Does is More Important than its Price" also available at Schiff Gold, is a good review of some of the history concerning specie money. It is a recommended read as it shows our founding fathers predicting, using their quotes, the mess we are in now with the federal reserve and fiat currency. The wisdom of our founders is amazing to me, something we should be thankful for and their instruction via compliance with our founding documents, something we should adhere to.
I wonder how much of this is summer hire and just plain fabrication via the birth death model. This report creates an opportunity to add to the share count for participation in the secular PM bull market.
It does seem like the criminal bullion banks are having to work a lot harder for much less result in their endeavor to suppress PM prices. It could not happen to a nicer set of folks!
I worked in Santa Cruz, Bolivia about 5 months and while there, there were two strikes, one just because the workers needed a holiday and the other was for another day off. The only bad consequence for me was a flight delay with the closure of the airport, but no big deal. Bye the way, the region around Santa Cruz is beautiful country.
A room can be crowded because a lot of people are in it or it can be crowded because the room is small. I agree the gold trade is crowded, but because the 'room is small'. We should be seeing a consistent rise in PM prices for an extended period as the room is not getting bigger anytime soon and the number of people wanting to enter is growing.
While it will not make a huge impact on SLW returns, their formula for dividend determination should push the August announcement up a little as free cash flow should be up considerably. A bump in the dividend should have positive affect on SP.
Good question, but it reveals thinking all of us employ that is becoming more wrong with passing time. Measuring the dollar value of SLW or anything else for that matter, is measuring with an elastic yardstick. Silver and gold are commodities that do not not change in their properties therefore do not change in their value. We have all heard that an ounce of gold bought a tailored suit 100 years ago and will buy one today. How high will it go measuring with dollars is infinity, not because SLW is becoming infinitely more valuable, but because the dollar is headed for zero worth, a failed fiat currency that will join all the other failed fiat currencies in the dust bin of history.
Potentially the better way to phrase the question is how many ounces of silver will a share of SLW buy when it tops out?
With bullion banks holding huge short positions, another raid is possible in thin trading hours. My heat would be warmed something special if this turned out to be a major run the banks could not thwart and they lost big. That would be a big step toward honest PM price discovery and big profits for PM longs. At that point I too would say "Giddy up!"
I am generally not in favor of taxing anything additional as it eventually will be worked to the disadvantage of the average citizen and it adds complexity to a tax system that cannot be understood now. A new tax is like a new camel nose inside the tent, pretty soon the camel is in the tent and pretty soon the new item taxed will be taxed to near death. I do not want to see trading stifled as trading is the mechanism for free market price discovery. I do understand and agree to the need to stifle abuse HFT uses to gain advantage over the average investor.
If high frequency traders run stops with micro trade offers that are cancelled, there is no trade to tax. It would need to be a tax on the submission. I would rather see a required shelf life for all trade offers submitted at say two seconds or maybe a little more so the small trader on his computer has an equal place in the exchange.
The idea of more taxes will surely be accompanied with more bureaucracy to collect it and cries to spend even more money. Better to not collect the tax and slim down government.
Good pick up on the options. I assume you mean Aug 19 expiration, and if so, the same general characteristic, that is a large volume of puts a few dollars below current price traded for ABX, GG, and GDX as well. possibly someone has a theory they are following or possibly there is something to do with the 2X and 3X etf's like DUST. I do not know, but I am holding long as I believe this is a confirmed secular bull and I am going to ride it. I will burn a little dry powder if we get the correction you suggest possible. Thanks for the post Jonathan.