Maybe a sell at the open, but it may be the miners leading the metals and investors shifting preference for general market stock for PM stock. In time the story will unfold, but my bet is PM's and PM stock do very well no matter what the fed or general market do as the stage has already been set for their advance.
Snp's report on PVG is very negative summarized by a sell rating, but I believe they fail to include the mine coming on line next year or the increased reserves identified by the exploration drilling. Reuters has it rated at out perform. On the NASDAQ site, they report for the first quarter the number of shares added by institutions is 23 million whereas the number of shares sold by institutions was 7 million and total institutional ownership is at 38%, so there is room for increased buying.
Charts are pretty much very positive for PVG and have been since the first of the year. The only neutral item is the price is tracking the upper band of widening Bollinger bands which suggests a throttle of the price advance for a while and possibly a reversal. Fundamentals are great with mine build out financing in place and construction on schedule and on budget. Potential for reserve additions exist in areal and deeper directions, plus they are in a very prospective location and a mining friendly jurisdiction. Management team is very good with a spectacular track record. It is easy to conclude I am very bullish PVG and I continue to add shares as funds become available.
for some information on the COMX gold/silver situation search "Atomic Bomb In the Works for July". I saw the article at Silver Doctors and the search will show it residing on Max Keiser, either way it is a Bill Holter authored piece that is darn good. Here is a quote:
"Starting with gold, last month (May) saw 221,000 ounces stand for delivery. This amount actually grew during the month which is highly unusual as the amount standing has ALWAYS dropped during delivery periods, this is the first time to my knowledge that the amount standing actually increased.
For comparison, May 2015 delivered only 2,500 ounces. Looking back at June of 2015, the amount standing on first notice day was 509,000 ounces. The final amount delivered was 295,000. As I have written and questioned before, who would fully fund their account 100% to take delivery …and then “go away”? The answer of course is someone willing to accept a “premium” as a bribe to not take delivery.
This June as you know does look to be quite interesting. The initial amount standing was 49.119 tons or over 1.5 million ounces. The amount dropped on day two by about 4 tons but has since gained back nearly all of it to stand at 49.11 tons. (If I am not mistaken, this month is the largest month of gold contracts ever standing for delivery.) Over 40 tons have already been served so we know these longs could not be persuaded to “go away”. We have seen no evidence of delivery for March, April or May. If we add these together with June, we have 65.813 tons standing with only 51.12 tons of registered gold.
My point is this, someone very real and very big is standing for gold. This “someone” would not be bribed to go away last month and does not look like they will go way this month!"
A very bullish signal for PM's and PM stock is no give back this week of the bounce last Friday resulting from the poor jobs report, rater we have had more upside. While the holding does not point to a target price, it does suggest a floor and safe entry and or a good point to raise stops to protect gains. I am holding some dry powder and thought there might be a back fill of the Friday gap up, no so at this point so maybe this time we just go up. Silver at $25.30 would be very positive for the bottom line of all silver miners and should be reflected as a serious up tick in their stock prices.
Another point worth considering is silver stock prices with respect to their respective Bollinger Bands. Most are trading at or a little above the upper band, a condition that normally would suggest a bit of throttling down in the upward movement, but not necessarily turning down. I believe things are looking quite positive and I am glad I have build a portfolio of mining stocks. over the next time period measured in years, PM stocks should do quite well.
There is a public article titled "The Weimar Republic of Venezuela" at TFMetalsReport worth reading. For those who believe they get all the information they need from MSM, the article should make them reconsider. For those who believe that socialism is great, the article should make them reconsider, but I doubt those advocating socialism asking what is in it for me would ever believe a democrat stated to the effect ask not what your country can do for you but what can you do for your country. It has been a bit over a half century since President Kennedy made the remark and we have MSM and the deterioration in our education system, rather the morphing of the two into tools of the big government politically correct socialists to thank for the citizen rot that has decayed so many. I do not necessarily advocate Alex Jones, but at least one should listen to internet sources and make quality judgements for themselves as to what passes for truth and what is propaganda.
I believe PVG is sitting on huge economic resources known and yet to be discovered and I believe Quartermain and his management team believe the same. Given the potential for massive stock price gains with production soon coming on line and financing in place, exploration success extending the mine life and increasing production, help from increasing product prices, I do not see the desire to be acquired. If anything, it would not surprise me to see the management team use a potential lucrative cash flow and strong balance sheet to do some acquiring in a couple years out if pricing does not get out of hand.
To sell the company in the near future might give a short term pop, but it would limit the longer term potential from company for the management and shareholders. I hope they do not sell this gem.
Productivity and costs report was not so shiny as well "Highlights Productivity remains a key weakness of the economy and is especially evident during the low output of the first quarter. The second estimate of first-quarter nonfarm productivity came in at a quarter-to-quarter annualized decline of 0.6 percent. Output during the quarter rose 0.9 percent but the increase was outmatched by a greater increase for hours worked, up 1.5 percent. Not only did hours exceed output, compensation rose at the same time, up 3.9 percent to lift unit labor costs by 4.5 percent.
Trends in the data show less weakness with year-on-year productivity up 0.7 percent and unit labor costs up 3.0 percent. Here output, up a year-on-year 2.3 percent, exceeds hours worked, up 1.6 percent. Compensation is up a year-on-year 3.7 percent with unit labor costs up 3.0 percent.
American workers did not perform well in the first quarter, reflecting to a significant decline lack of business investment in new equipment."
This is confirmation that we are reaping the fruits of economic change getting away from wealth generating ventures and favoring wealth consumption. Exacerbating the problem is ZIRP encouraging foolish investment and government policy condemning anything and everything wealth generating in the name of environment. An example is the not so affordable care act making insurance available to all at the expense of fat cats that can afford to pay their fair share. While that last statement may or may not be true depending on your political stance, what is true is those fat cats have had a bit of freedom to choose taken from them as they must invest in a consuming health care program and the opportunity cost is they do not have the potential to invest in a wealth generating venture with the confiscated funds. Investing in healthcare may be nice, but healthcare, coffee shops, retail, and government consume wealth reducing our ability to generate wealth and raise the standard of living.
Terrible is an understatement. Looking under the hood in a cursory manner, a very disturbing trend continues, that is wealth consuming jobs in services like government, health care, financial and professional continue to expand albeit slowly and wealth generating employment in goods producing mining and construction continue to decline. It is confirmation that as a nation we are consuming past wealth generated. The more that wealth is consumed, the less there is to invest in additional wealth generating activities. The result is a lower standard of living and the standard will continue to contract until the fed gets out of the price fixing business and governments at all levels move to living within their means to tax. Central banks cannot stimulate growth on a sustained basis by printing money because the new money has no wealth other than the wealth stolen from existing money holders. It is seen what the new money does, it is not apparent what the stolen wealth is subtracting from the economy. More money in a country consuming its wealth can only mean less purchasing power for the unit dollar and greater dollar value for PM's. PM's are commodities that do not change in their value over time, it is the tool used to measure that value that changes.
Many who post here are posting wrt short term silver and SLW price movements, but some are longer term investors. To those folks, there is an article and graph at safehavendotcom by silver analyst. In part he says "I am referring to the 20 month moving average for silver which is shown in the monthly chart below as a blue line threading through the silver candlesticks. The thesis is simple, when a given month's trading range for silver moves above and fully clears its current 20 month moving average, a long term bull market in silver has begun. There are only three times this has occurred for silver in the last 18 years - May 2002, September 2009 and now in May 2016." the full article is worth reading.
Before the mania you describe takes place, we have to go through a period where the #$%$ roaches have a little light shown on them. Google an article at TF Metals Report titled "The Epic Battle Continues" for an analysis of the COMEX data over the recent past. It clearly points to some serious market manipulation with solid numbers supporting the claims. Leafing through the comments is worthwhile as there are some very good contributions. At the end of the third page of comments, there is some linkage to the number of dollars outstanding and gold's price. I do not buy into the straight line extrapolation as all our dollars represent all wealth, not just that contributed by gold, but the numbers are thought provoking.
There are many reasons the fed should hike rates, better, get out of the rate fixing business, but all are contrary to the misguided premises the fed uses to make decisions. Given they follow the mantra that low rates stimulate the economy, then I agree with the assessment they are likely to keep rates low and should we get another turn for the worse, they will likely start another QE, but possibly by another name.
Basically, lower rates artificially or injecting fiat money into the economy is stealing from holders of dollars. The stealing is done via reduced rent on the wealth stored as dollars in the case of reduced interest rates or outright reduction of purchasing power via increased dollar supply without commensurate wealth increase. The bad part is the victims earned their money and the connected are recipients of the benefits they did not earn. Another consequence of the bad policy, the fed is transferring wealth from those that earned it to those wealthy and connected, and as a consequence, rewarding sloth and penalizing actual wealth generation. That is not a recipe for for getting the economy to accelerate.
If dollars are money and part of the definition of money is to be a store of wealth, then dollars compete with tangibles for people to store their wealth. Destroying a PM competitor for wealth preservation only increases the demand for PM's and with increased demand comes the inevitable increase in price.
I wonder if there is a buyer of size that is not finding any sellers? At a $1.35 and lower on level II quotes, there are many uniform bids at a size of 32 and 33 hundred shares.
Butt in any time, I enjoy your comments. I am not versed in the details of all the bank dealings, especially the international FX stuff. The material I read is with question and with my nose attuned for the smell test. What I do know is some bank activity has been outright scandalous, for example the price influencing admitted by DB and them being willing to rat on their peers. Then there are the liar loans, and 'over rated' Mortgage back securities that have and will continue to cause problems. Central bank policy has been poor at best and probably self serving, but not in the interest of the US citizen, especially those dependent on renting their life's savings for a living. CB policy has enabled governments federal and local to borrow wildly making poor decisions committing to too much ongoing spend with tax payer money, but since they personally have not extra skin in the game, making poor decisions has no consequences for them individually. It is all going to unravel and it is going to be messy.
What this has to do with SLW is the way their product price is going to be affected. PM's will go up in any of the scenarios I see playing out and that is going to be good for SLW. I do believe there will not be one #$%$ roach to scurry across the floor of truth, but a bevy of them and when that happens it will not be pretty. It is why I keep thinking their may be a significant PM price increase in a very short time as the truth becomes a news story that cannot be hidden.
Good points. I did see, at TF Metals report I believe, that about 2/3's of the commercial short position is large bullion banks. If true, one would need to remove them to get an average holding in a range 0f 100 contracts. I do not fool around on the futures exchange, but I am thinking there is a margin requirement to enter a contract and another lower one to maintain it.
Soros also added a new 19,419,309 share position in ABX, some $360 million. Not much else within the PM sector for Soros that I noticed on NASDAQ.
Potentially even more positive is reported on the NASDAQ site that increased institutional holdings for SLW for the 3 month reporting period through March 31 was 38.8 million shares verses 25.4 million shares sold. New institutions holding shares 70 verses 34 selling out. Bottom line, the PM sector is getting more and more notice
Here are a few more thoughts suggesting we are in a bull market, albeit these are more longer term thoughts. The last period where commercial hedgers were at these levels of short gold contracts was mid 2009 through mid 2011, a period where gold soared. The COT story is not the same for silver. For SLW, all major MA's are aligned positive. Again for SLW, Bollinger Bands are pinching suggesting a move up or down forthcoming. Pinching BB's have occurred a few times this year, all evntually resulting in moves higher. RSI for SLW got into overbought territory at the end of April but that has corrected and is not on a slow path upward. MACD and Sto's are looking to turn upward again.
None of this says anything about the very short term, but it does indicate taking a short term short position is betting on a counter move to the general uptrend. Buying dips seems prudent to me and potentially just buying when funds are available, dollar cost averaging into an ever larger position, may be prudent as corrections or dips have been relatively minor. the stock seems to build a base within a narrow trading range for 'correcting' rather than making a significant move down.
Fundamentally, this issue seems sound with the one major cloud being the tax issue. On the news front, there are many more PM positive stories and potential developments than there are PM negative stories. this is a time when just holding SLW may be a prudent decision over trying to juice returns by trading in and out. One thing I have done is write way out of the money options to get a little extra cash that I use to buy small miners. GLTA
I read somewhere on the internet that going to the hospital is the third leading cause of death in US, makes mining look mighty safe.
the last paragraph from the article asks the question running through my mind as I was reading, "This certainly bears watching because if Deutsche Bank has been kicked out of the gentlemen's club, they have been allowed to carry the red button kill switch called derivatives with them! I am not really sure what to make of this all. Surely the powers that be would not kick the largest (or second largest) holder of derivatives off the reservation, would they? The only possible reason I can imagine is something has already blown up behind the scenes that is too big to be fixed or hidden. The "blame" for a financial meltdown may very well be hoisted around Deutsche Bank's neck! " I do not think the mob, oops, other bankers would have let them take the 'red button' if there were a way to remove it from the defector.
What good will it be to blame DB if everything has been made transparent? "Not even one single market can get out of control because "truth" anywhere will lead to TRUTH everywhere! Even one single market left alone to Mother Nature will lead to questions that cannot be logically answered."
When the banks get the light of day shown on them so that even the detractors here can see what nefarious deeds have been done, It will be too late to buy PM protection as the price will be too high for supplies that will not be available. What is sad, is everything including food and energy distribution will be severely disrupted, so even holding PM's may still not be satisfactory, though much better than hold fiat. Holding PM's will at least preserve wealth through the turmoil for what ever develops on the back side.
I am impressed Goldbug, 4 thumbs down over night!