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SPX FLOW, Inc. Message Board

senior6analyst 16 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 12, 2016 10:19 AM Member since: Dec 18, 2006
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  • Reply to

    Price target for exas

    by busygoth Jul 10, 2016 11:18 AM
    senior6analyst senior6analyst Jul 12, 2016 10:19 AM Flag

    Dig into the reported results rather than scrapping the surface. Look at the trends, second derivatives, and the real reasons why prices and GMs are temporarily understated. The steady-state GM on Cologuard will exceed 70% once the anomalies are eliminated. Look behind the numbers, not at them.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Price target for exas

    by busygoth Jul 10, 2016 11:18 AM
    senior6analyst senior6analyst Jul 11, 2016 10:29 AM Flag

    You are far afield and wrong on two comments. 1) Project out their respective growth in Cologuard "sales," operating expenses, margins and resulting cash flows; and, you will find that they will reach break-even by early 2018 with cash of ~$50 million left in the bank because, 2) EXAS is not even a close analogy of XMSirius. Cologuard has no competitor that can even approach their product feature set of efficacy and safety, ability to save nearly 50,000 American lives annually, save Medicare $billions, and has the approval stamps of the FDA, CMS and USPSTF. Do your homework, do the math. this quarter's results will probably reinforce the 3 year spreadsheet scenario projections especially, as more private health insurers approve Cologuard for people under 65 years old.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    13, 15, or 18?

    by jas7799 Jun 25, 2016 2:03 PM
    senior6analyst senior6analyst Jun 30, 2016 2:42 PM Flag

    I still believe EXAS (and Cologuard) deserve to be over $20 per share for the reasons mentioned below. It is under priced and undervalued. At the White House Conroy should, IMO, state that if people over 40 years old, that never had a polyp, used Cologuard, 40,000 to 50,000 lives could be saved annually. This, in turn, would save Medicare $billions.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • senior6analyst senior6analyst Jun 26, 2016 11:27 AM Flag

    SWKS is just extremely undervalued! With its earnings, cash, & dividend, I was thrilled on Friday to buy it in on the cheap as well as some other high dividend growth technology companies. Late Thursday I had taken profits and put in place an ultrashort position because the market had euphorically run to the extreme upside on polls that said Britain would remain. That was so asymmetrically extreme, I had little to lose and a lot to gain by betting on the Brexit as a fundamental contrarian! With the huge panic in the markets on Friday, the reversebecame true for re-buying highly undervalued, well-run technology companies with net cash, earnings growth, and dividends of 2-4%. On my ranked valuation list, SWKS rose to #1 as the most undervalued stock out of 50 that I track! Watch what insiders buy next week....

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    13, 15, or 18?

    by jas7799 Jun 25, 2016 2:03 PM
    senior6analyst senior6analyst Jun 26, 2016 11:11 AM Flag

    It should be over $18 IMO, however, I believe it will be highly determined by what the top management say. Strictly in my personal opinion, I believe with their legal and financial background, they seem to go overboard in giving extremely conservative projections or cautioning the investment community where it is not required. For example, by saying the reachable market is $4 billion for Cologuard for which it may capture one-third and being silent on ROW is at an extremely low end range in my personal opinion. Also, as someone that managed the Investor Relations function, there is no SEC exposure to providing a more realistic range. Personally, with the USPSTF recommendation now, I believe with the U.S. and ROW 40-64 year old markets for early screening, the potential revenues for Cologuard are in the order of $3-6 billion. At a 15% ROS, this means the minimum DCF earnings intrinsic value for EXAS today at a 15% discount rate is probably about $20 per share. At the midpoint of these projections an acquirer of EXAS may be able to achieve a 20% IRR by buying EXAS at $28 per share or less. Its seems every time management talks about market prospects, the stock drops?!? Management did an outstanding job in the first two stages of EXAS, however, in my personal opinion, what is required now is marketing, sales and operations, not legal and finance. For these reasons, EXAS continues to be an undervalued diamond in the rough!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • senior6analyst by senior6analyst Jun 23, 2016 11:01 AM Flag

    With its earnings outlook and cash, by any DCF earnings analysis, SWKS is easily work over $100 IMO. Also, solid management and product line up. I often, in my personal opinion, make money doing the opposite of what an Internet commentary firm starting with a Z recommends on directional analysis of earnings updates. Often I believe they miss a bottom on an earnings update. Do the math on expected earnings growth rate, P/Es, and the net cash per share for SWKS and I am confident your intrinsic valuation will be over $100 per share. In six months I expect +50% in the stock. I am a fundamentalist contrarian and made money in EXAS recently for the same reason.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Buyout opportunity below $20

    by special Jun 18, 2016 6:57 PM
    senior6analyst senior6analyst Jun 18, 2016 8:27 PM Flag

    They would be crazy to sell for less than $25. They are communicating extremely conservative projection potential worldwide markets for Colguard IMO. I stand by my spreadsheet simulations which incated break-even by 2018 with over $40 million left in the bank and no A/R, inventory, WC, or property borrowings.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Cologuard vs FIT & EXAS 3-5 year outlook

    by kirkydu Jun 18, 2016 10:40 AM
    senior6analyst senior6analyst Jun 18, 2016 8:22 PM Flag

    I agree with you Kirkydu, but feel that EXAS management and even you are underestimating the market for Cologard in your communications. In your case, I disagree that the two tests are roughly equal. I believe that FIT identifies late stage cancers which means that Cologuard will detect CRC earlier and save far more lives over time. Cheap as it is, why should someone risk $40 on FIT with Cologuard available with 93% efficacy and covered by insurers?! Also, Medicare will spend more money on late stage treatments, surgeries, and hospitalization. In the last conference call, management commented on the potential market from a lawyer's conservative point of view in my personal opinion. There was no clarification of U.S. and ROW market sizes and one-third of 4 million vastly underestimates the potential Cologuard market IMO. From an Investor Relations or SEC point of view, there is no need constantly provide the most conservative outlook that can be thought of. With the updated USPSTF recommendation, I agree with your estimated future valuation and believe the stock deserves to be at $20 today with proper projections and DCF valuations.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    ANY BETS ??

    by retireearly55 Apr 18, 2016 9:12 PM
    senior6analyst senior6analyst Jun 14, 2016 11:23 PM Flag

    Please go back and read the tome generated by Kaiser that, in my opinion, was rather misdirected and inappropriately provided an insidious argument for delaying the recommendation of Cologuard because of the availability of cheap, unreliable blood tests. Result: private insurers did not have to cover Cologuard for people under 65 years old, could continue coverage of inexpensive nonspecific blood tests, save a lot of money for a year or two, and contribute to the future loss of American lives that could have been saved with early Cologuard screening. C'mon, can't you see through the ruse of ACA and private insurers? Why did the FDA and CMS approve Cologuard so quickly?! I maintain that Cologuard is a life saving innovation and that EXAS deserves to be $20-$40 now. We are talking about an annual market of $3-$6 billion and the saving of nearly 50,000 lives a year.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    ANY BETS ??

    by retireearly55 Apr 18, 2016 9:12 PM
    senior6analyst senior6analyst Jun 14, 2016 6:34 PM Flag

    Please go back and read the tome generated by Kaiser that, in my opinion, was rather misdirected and inappropriately provided an insidious argument for delaying the recommendation of Cologuard because of the availability of cheap, unreliable blood tests. Result: private insurers did not have to cover Cologuard for people under 65 years old, could continue coverage of inexpensive nonspecific blood tests, save a lot of money for a year or two, and contribute to the future loss of American lives that could have been saved with early Cologuard screening. C'mon, can't you see through the ruse of ACA and private insurers? Why did the FDA and CMS approve Cologuard so quickly?! I maintain that Cologuard is a life saving innovation and that EXAS deserves to be $20-$40 now. We are talking about an annual market of $3-$6 billion and the saving of nearly 50,000 lives a year.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Valuation

    by jethro_tull_flute May 29, 2016 10:26 AM
    senior6analyst senior6analyst Jun 2, 2016 5:25 PM Flag

    On valuation you look correct, but they are not better than SWKS which has a broad solid product line and superb management. My DCF system says QRVO is worth a bit over $70, and upside of ~30% compared to an upside of ~50% for SWKS.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Valuation

    by jethro_tull_flute May 29, 2016 10:26 AM
    senior6analyst senior6analyst Jun 2, 2016 10:32 AM Flag

    I use a DCF earnings intrinsic valuation system and have a similar ranking. My list starting, with most undervalued, includes respectively: EXAS, SWKS, NUAN, AMBA, AAPL, GILD, etc. Current intrinsic valuation for SWKS is $98 and for GILD, $104.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    EXAS: Four Reasons for Stock to Surge

    by senior6analyst May 24, 2016 9:54 AM
    senior6analyst senior6analyst Jun 2, 2016 10:23 AM Flag

    Reason #1 just got reinforced by Jazz's agreement to buy Celator Pharma for $1.5 billion! Celator's unapproved Vyxeos drug treats myeloid leukemia and only hopes to prolong life. My fear is that before USPSTF is overcome or disbanded, an acquirer may swoop in and buy EXAS for $15 or less.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Get ready

    by macacosabio May 28, 2016 7:50 PM
    senior6analyst senior6analyst May 29, 2016 12:03 AM Flag

    No, $30 will be back within 1 year.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Why is EXAS rising today?

    by jastern22 May 27, 2016 11:59 AM
    senior6analyst senior6analyst May 27, 2016 12:11 PM Flag

    Because it is extremely undervalued from the short term politics of the USPSTF, hired guns for the hedge shorts, and the biotech shorts that play statistics with bashing. This stock should have a $2-$3 billion market cap now, and will. Forget technical trading; fundamentals will prevail.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • senior6analyst senior6analyst May 27, 2016 10:46 AM Flag

    I sent an email to Couric months ago asking her to raise her voice against the hypocrisy and impact, IMO, of the USPSTF's lack of recommending Cologuard. She did not respond. I wrote again saying she of all people understood the ramifications of not recommending Cologuard for early, compliant screening. No response. It is amazing how many people or the media appear to be afraid to tackle any extended element of Obamacare for fear of repercussions from the administration or private insurers. At least the FDA and CMS stepped up quickly and professionally to their responsibilities. The cancer societies are also speaking out negatively on the USPSTF's decisions. It is only a matter of time before Cologuard takes early screening by storm as the gold standard. We will look back at $6 for EXAS as the buy of the decade. It should be $20-$40 and Cologuard should be used by everyone over 40 years old.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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